This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
Wednesday's three-game playoff slate begins at 7:00 p.m. ET. We now have solid metrics for these matchups, and we will rely on them heavily in our selection process today.
SLATE OVERVIEW
BOS (-3) vs. BKN O/U: 226
PHI (-1.5) @ TOR O/U: 216.5
MIL (-9.5) vs. CHI O/U: 225.0
INJURIES
PHI Matisse Thybulle (COVID-19 Protocol) - OUT
Thybulle is unvaccinated, and that won't fly in Canada. His absence won't have a huge effect on the rotation, but it could yield a few more minutes for Danny Green ($4,100).
TOR Scottie Barnes (ankle) - DOUBTFUL
TOR Gary Trent (illness) - QUESTIONABLE
Trent could be a green light to play, but Barnes will almost certainly miss. Chris Boucher ($5,000) had a decent game in this scenario, and if Trent doesn't play, I'll gladly add OG Anunoby ($6,100) as a great pivot. Precious Achiuwa ($4,200) is another option to consider.
ELITE PLAYERS
Once again, we are gifted with additional position eligibility for Joel Embiid ($10,400) as the trend of giving centers an extra slot in the playoffs continues. Embiid's ability to play in three slots makes him a very attractive option tonight. I favor him over the three players that share the highest echelon with him. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant will be exceedingly popular Tuesday, but I have almost zero exposure to Giannis and Durant. I am allowing Irving into a few lineups, but I think we can find more value on the slate that I simply like better due to the salary differential.
Two players that fit the bill are Jayson Tatum ($9,900) and James Harden ($9,200), who both come in with great salary points relative to their massive upside. When comparing to Irving and Durant, I don't think you are giving much away, and the point-per-dollar differential could very well end up swinging to the cheaper duo. This tandem is an extremely good +EV proposition for the slate.
With Barnes out (and possibly Trent) one has to give Pascal Siakam ($9,000) and Fred VanVleet ($7,800) a nod, and they may fare better in front of a home crowd.
Also consider: DeMar DeRozan, CHI ($7,500) @ MIL, Nikola Vucevic, CHI ($7,700) @ MIL, Jaylen Brown, BOS ($8,300) vs. BKN
EXPECTED CHALK AND VALUE PLAYS
Al Horford, BOS ($7,600) vs. BKN
I don't like the salary increase for Horford, but you have to give it up for the veteran, who continues to excel in Robert William's absence. He racked up 43 FDFP in the Game 1 win, and the matchup in the paint swings heavily in Horford's favor once again. He needs a similar number to match this slightly elevated salary point, but I think he can do it again.
Khris Middleton ($6,900) and Jrue Holiday ($7.400), MIL vs. CHI
When watching the Bucks, you see a swagger that you don't see with any other team currently. They seem to just know they are going to win, and the only thing that could trip them is not taking a team like Chicago seriously enough. That being said, they aren't going to overuse Giannis if they don't have to. I doubt they would empty their bench in a slightly lopsided affair, meaning they would probably leave Holiday and/or Middleton around to keep things together. Let's face it, it's a long haul to the Finals, and you want to save Giannis for when it counts. In the meantime, let Middleton and Holiday do the heavy lifting. I think they are both trustworthy candidates.
Nicolas Claxton, BKN ($5,700) @ BOS
Andre Drummond ($5,400) can always mess with Claxton's numbers, but one place he can't touch him is at power forward, where Claxton enjoys additional eligibility. This makes him the more versatile play, and so far it seems like Claxton has received the bigger output share in the playoffs.
Also consider: Alex Caruso, CHI ($4,400) @ MIL, Derrick White, BOS ($4,800) vs. BKN
