This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
We've got a substantial 10-game slate on tap for Wednesday, and we have a few vulnerable teams on back-to-backs. Also, some critical injuries have opened up massive value on this slate. Let's get to it!
SLATE OVERVIEW
(Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook and are subject to change)
Games/Teams to Target in BOLD
Games/Teams to Fade in ITALIC
IND @ MIL (-8.5) O/U: 232
PHI @ CHA (+7.5) O/U: 221.5
DAL @ ATL (+1.5) O/U: 224.5
HOU @ OKC (+6) O/U: 222.5
NYK @ CHI (+3) O/U: 216
LAC (-7.5) @ CLE O/U: 219.0
WAS @ MIA (-8) O/U: 229.5
MIN @ SAS (-8) O/U: 223.5
PHO @ NOR (+2.5) O/U: 222
BOS (-2.0) @ SAC O/U: 227
BACK-TO-BACK TEAMS: Celtics, Clippers, Pacers, Wizards
INJURIES
CHA PJ Washington (foot) - OUT
CHA Terry Rozier (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE
I think this situation favors Gordon Hayward ($7,400) above anyone else, but I wouldn't be shocked to see Miles Bridges ($5,400) draw the start in Washington's place. There are multiple spots I like for the Hornets, and we'll outline one of them in a moment.
ATL De'Andre Hunter (knee) - OUT
This situation didn't clarify itself much in the last game, and I think you need to stay away from the assumed pivots here.
CHI Wendell Carter (quad) - OUT
CHI Otto Porter (back) - PROBABLE
This game's slow pace isn't attractive, and I'm probably going to fade this game altogether. There are so many other options available, and it's easy to leave this game alone.
LAC Paul George, Kawhi Leonard POSSIBLE REST
No designation here yet, but rest is possible for both of these stars. Leonard has said he plans on playing in back-to-backs this season, but in a soft matchup against Cleveland, Tyronn Lue may elect to give one of these guys a rest. Keep your eye on the latest news here, and if absences occur, targeting the adjusted starting lineup is a wise move.
CLE Andre Drummond (back) - QUESTIONABLE
CLE Kevin Love (calf) OUT
CLE Larry Nance (wrist) OUT
I'm not too high on anyone if Drummond plays, but if he ends up sitting this game out, I'm all over Jarrett Allen ($7.000). Drummond's status is well worth waiting on with the possibility of rostering Allen.
WAS Russell Westbrook - POSSIBLE REST
A bevy of options become available if Westbrook sits on the back-to-back. The obvious beneficiary is Bradley Beal ($10,800) in this spot, and you can easily consider him as the cornerstone of many lineups. Ish Smith ($4,600) would get the start in a Westbrook absence and is definitely worthy of a roster spot.
HOU John Wall (Achilles) - OUT
HOU David Nwaba (ankle) - OUT
Wall's absence will generate an excellent night for Victor Oladipo ($8,200). You'll also likely see a significant bump from Eric Gordon ($4,900), who could slide back into the starting five tonight. Jae'Sean Tate ($3,900) will also see an increase in shot volume.
OKC Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (knee) - OUT
OKC George Hill (thumb) - OUT
This is THE value team for this slate, and some of them may be so chalky, you'll want to pivot off the pivots. Practically every pundit in the industry will be hitting Hamidou Diallo ($4,300) hard today, so much so that I'm almost inclined to avoid him despite the favorable spot. SGA is a usage monster, and multiple players will need to step up. I don't fault anyone for taking the high rostership with Diallo, but Theo Maledon ($4,800) might be the less popular play and someone who has played well over the past week. Even less popular would be Luguentz Dort ($4,400), and even though I tend to stay away from him, you have to expect some shot volume increase, and he could be the sneakiest contrarian play. I also think that going with Darius Bazley ($5,100) or Al Horford ($6,500) is a worthwhile consideration as a Diallo pivot.
MIN D'Angelo Russell (quad) - QUESTIONABLE
I'm not high on this game either, but if you can't resist, Malik Beasley ($6,500) would enjoy a bump in Russell's absence. You could also make an argument for Anthony Edwards ($5,100) if Russell is out. Naz Reid is probable, so the frontcourt value options have dried up.
SAS LaMarcus Aldridge (hip) - OUT
Although this absence doesn't have the same effect as SGA, there's still a way for some other guys to see increases. Keldon Johnson ($5,700) is at a nice salary on FanDuel, and he can take over a game in the right scenario. He's coming off an excellent 25-point, 10-rebound game against Memphis. DeMar DeRozan ($7,200) has burned many players lately, but an increase in shot volume has to happen tonight.
NOR Steven Adams (calf) - QUESTIONABLE
Usually, the Pelicans would be a team to target, but I'm just not as high on them against a tough Suns defense. Willy Hernangomez ($3,500) went off in the last game instead of Jaxson Hayes ($3,600), but all of this may be moot if Adams suits up. There are much better options on the slate to target.
BOS Marcus Smart (calf) - OUT
BOS Kemba Walker - POSSIBLE REST
If they elect to sit Walker, you can switch over to Jeff Teague ($4,200) for value. I found it challenging to find room for the Boston elite, especially on a back-to-back.
ELITE PLAYERS
Both Luka Doncic ($11,500) and Trae Young ($10,400) find themselves in a great matchup with a high total. I think Young is the guy to lean toward due to a more consistent shot volume over the past few games, but they are both viable. In at least a couple of lineups, you should be able to afford both of them if you hammer the budget spots we mentioned above. Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,200) is an outstanding basketball player. You should play him. Ok, in all seriousness, I like him a lot against the Pacers, who are playing a back-to-back. He disappointed everyone against Portland, but he exploded for three straight games of more than 60 FDFP before that subpar score.
The only guy I'm really high on in the 9k level is Joel Embiid ($10,200). For what you're getting, this is an excellent play for the valuable center spot against Charlotte, who will be without PJ Washington.
EXPECTED CHALK
Domantas Sabonis, IND ($8,800) @ MIL
Despite the back-to-back, Sabonis played out of his mind against Memphis on Tuesday. Looking back a bit, Sabonis didn't do well in his previous back-to-back experience, but it was due to an early departure with a knee injury. You can throw that line out, and you can start Sabonis with confidence.
De'Aaron Fox, SAC ($8,200) vs. BOS
I like Fox against the Celtics as Boston plays a back-to-back in their west coast swing. Fox is ridiculously consistent, averaging 27 points, eight assists and five rebounds over the past four games, and I think a number north of 40 FDFP is entirely doable. I like him even more if they rest Kemba Walker tonight, leaving Fox to work opposite Jeff Teague.
Deandre Ayton, PHO ($8,200) @ NOR
Even if Steven Adams plays, Ayton is still my favorite Phoenix play against the Pelicans. He's on a three-game double-double streak, and he put up a 13/12 double-double the last time he played New Orleans. You can find yourself sliding down to Ayton after coming off Embiid to make room for a guy like Beal in a Westbrook absence.
Dejounte Murray, SAS ($6,900) vs. MIN
We didn't mention him in the San Antonio injury section, but I really like Murray of Russell sits, and perhaps even more if Russell plays with an injury. The T-Wolves have been unable to stop anyone, and they rank poorly against almost every position, and the loss of LaMarcus Aldridge leaves a lot of potential volume out there.
Also consider: Collin Sexton, CLE ($6,800) vs. LAC
VALUE PLAYS ($6,667 and lower)
I can't stress this point enough tonight - REFER TO THE INJURY SECTION for the best budget options. The situations in Oklahoma City, San Antonio and Houston are where the value is on the slate. If you aren't utilizing at least some of them, you'll be missing out on some great opportunities to spend up elsewhere. I've added some additional value below.
LaMelo Ball, CHA ($6,600) vs. PHI
I like both Ball brothers tonight, but I will get a lot of LaMelo in my lineups if Terry Rozier sits. A Rozier absence would maximize his effectiveness, but he might come up with a great line anyway. He's going to rival Diallo as a trendy play at this price.
Harrison Barnes, SAC ($6,100) vs. BOS
If unseen COVID news hits the slate tonight, you could easily find yourself sliding to Barnes in the late game. He's a great option to beat value anyway, Barnes has crushed 5x value in four of his last five games, and this game will be a bit closer than the Vegas number indicate, in my opinion. I also like the potential contrarian scenario, as he won't be very popular.
Thaddeus Young, CHI ($5,800) vs. NYK
I advise steering clear of this game, but Young is enjoying a lot of production in Wendell Carter's absence. He's not a very exciting pick among the assortment of stimulating value on the slate, but you can't discount his recent numbers. He's averaged 12.3 points and 9.3 rebounds over the past three games and put up about 10 shots per game over that span.
Jeremy Lamb, IND ($5,300) @ MIL
Lamb is an interesting play on this back-to-back. Since he only played 27 minutes on Tuesday, he may be in line for a higher output since so many of the Pacers' starters logged maximum minutes. He's beaten 5x value in three straight games and is a pretty decent points-rebounds contributor, and until Caris LeVert joins the team, he will be a reliable placeholder as a hybrid guard-forward.
Josh Richardson, DAL ($4,900) @ ATL
It was only a matter of time before Richardson gave us a number like he put up against Phoenix in his last game, and he should keep the ball rolling in a fast-paced game against the Hawks. Richardson's value to this team, and to Doncic in the backcourt, can't be understated, and he should have ample opportunity to put up a value-beating number.
Also consider: Jakob Poeltl, SA ($4,800) vs MIN,
