This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
This is an exciting slate. We have the best two words in sports ahead of us: GAME 7! Who would have thought we'd get here either after the first five games? The Nuggets were down 3-1 against a daunting Clippers team but have fought all the way back to force this critical Game 7. That's not the only game on the slate though, as we're also kicking off the Eastern Conference Finals matchup between the Heat and Celtics. So, without further ado, let's get into it!
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Slate Overview
BOS-MIA: In Game 1, Boston enters this matchup as a 1.5-point favorite. The total is sitting at 209.5. As for the series, Boston is a –135 favorite while the Heat are +115 underdogs.
DEN-LAC: The Clippers enter this Game 7 as a 7.5-point favorite. The total is sitting at 207.5, despite it starting at 211, The reason it's been bet down so much is that all six games have cashed to the under so far in this series.
Positional Breakdown
PG: Jamal Murray is the top point guard here at $8,400. Kemba Walker follows him up at $7,400 while Goran Dragic owns a $7,000 price tag. Lou Williams is a solid value at $5,500 while Patrick Beverley could be sneaky at $4,800.
SG: Jimmy Butler and Paul George sit up top here just $100 apart, with Butler being the king at $8K. Marcus Smart follows them up at $6,400 while Gary Harris owns a $5,700 price tag. Duncan Robinson is at $5,300 while Tyler Herro sits at $5K. Andre Iguodala is a decent punt play at $4,200.
SF: Kawhi Leonard is the best option on the board at $10,600. Jaylen Brown is priced at $7,800. If you want to go cheap, Jae Crowder is awesome at $5,100 while Jerami Grant is sitting at $4,900.
PF: Jayson Tatum has been cruising and sits just below $10K. Bam Adebayo has been amazing as well and sits at $8,500. Daniel Theis is a good value at $5,600 while Michael Porter, Marcus Morris and Paul Millsap all sit around $5K.
C: Everyone will be using Nikola Jokic at $10,200. The reason for that is because Montrezl Harrell is second here at $5,200. Ivica Zubac is the only other viable option at $4,700.
Injuries to Monitor
Will Barton (DEN)
Barton has been ruled out for this game with a knee injury.
Gordon Hayward (BOS)
Hayward will remain out because of an ankle issue.
Elite Players
The two-highest priced players are Kawhi Leonard and Nikola Jokic, with both guys sitting above $10,000. Both of them have been rolling and they're going to be tough to fade in a must-win Game 7. Jayson Tatum is just behind at $9,800 and has been majestic as well. It will be hard to get all three of those guys into a lineup, so that probably means fading Tatum and riding the Jokic-Leonard duo.
Expected Chalk
Kawhi Leonard, LAC ($10,600)
I hate to have the highest-salaried players in the chalk section, but that's just what the playoffs are like. People are going to reflexively put Leonard and Jokic into their lineups and then build from there. The reason they'll use Kawhi is because he's been the best player in these playoffs. That's evident when you see that he's scored at least 42 FD points in all 12 playoff games while averaging 56 fantasy points per game. It's scary to think that he'll play 40-plus minutes here too, which is also a rare occurrence from one of the best per-minute producers around.
Nikola Jokic, DEN ($10,200)
I have no doubt that Jokic will be the most used player on this slate. Not only has he been amazing recently, he also happens to be the only viable center out there. No one wants to trust Montrezl Harrell or Ivica Zubac, and it's likely that Jokic will be the first guy people put into their lineup. It's hard to fade him when looking at the numbers though, as he's scored at least 44 FanDuel points in nine of his last 10 games.
Key Values
Daniel Theis, BOS ($5,600)
With everyone using expensive players as chalk, find some cheap guys becomes crucial. Theis is just that, as he should be $1,000 more expensive. The reason I say that is because he's the Celtics only true big man. That's going to make him key against Bam Adebayo, and Theis' recent form is strong. Not only has he scored at least 23 FD points in seven of his last eight games, Theis is also averaging 28 fantasy points per game in that span. That's all you can hope for from a player south of $6K, and the fact that he scored at least 34 FanDuel points in two of his three meetings with Miami this season is enticing as well.
Jae Crowder, MIA ($5,100)
Crowder always plays hungry, but he should be extra motivated against his former team. Using a player just because he might have a revenge game is silly though, so, let's get into these numbers. In the last four games against Milwaukee, Crowder scored at least 29 FD points in all of them while playing at least 31 minutes a game. That's a ridiculous floor from a $5,100 player, and it's hard to understand why FanDuel is keeping his price so low.
Tyler Herro, MIA ($5,000)
It's hard to understand this Miami pricing from FanDuel as well. Herro was one of their most valuable players in the Milwaukee series and he's being priced like a meaningless bench player. Over his last 14 games, Herro is averaging 29 FD points in over 32 minutes of action. His real-life value to the Heat was clear when he was handling the ball in the fourth quarter of Miami's closeout win, and it's been translating into fantasy value.
