This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
I covered this exact same slate Sunday and killed it. Rajon Rondo, P.J. Tucker and Jae Crowder made up the value plays, which was obviously huge. I also had Giannis Antetokounmpo in the chalk section, and avoiding him because of that provided a big boost as well. Let's look to keep that momentum rolling here, as not a whole lot has changed since then. With that in mind, let's get into it!
If you have any comments or questions, reach me on Twitter @Bartilottajoel
Slate Overview
MIL-MIA: With Miami up 3-1 in this series, they enter this matchup as a 2.5-point favorite, with the total sitting at 217.
HOU-LAL: This series is currently sitting at 1-1. Los Angeles enters this game as a 5.5-point favorite, with the total sitting at 225.
Positional Breakdown
PG: Russell Westbrook remains at $9,000, the top dog at PG. Goran Dragic continues to play great, sitting at $7,200. Rajon Rondo saw a major price boost at $6,200. Eric Bledsoe is one of the best values out there at $5,200. George Hill is a viable cheap play at $4,800.
SG: James Harden remains up top at $10,800. Jimmy Butler is next at $8,300 while Khris Middleton is just behind him at an even $8K. Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro both hover around $5,000 while Danny Green, Andre Iguodala and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope could be nice cheap options.
SF: LeBron James has usurped Giannis Antetokounmpo at the top of the SF salary scale, sitting at $11,100. Antetokounmpo owns a $10,600 price tag. Eric Gordon, Jae Crowder and Danuel House are all within $300 of $5K. Wesley Matthews is the only other guy worth considering at $3,900 but he's risky.
PF: Anthony Davis has been switched to center, so Bam Adebayo leads the fours at $8,500. Robert Covington follows him up at $6,700. If you're feeling risky, you can use Kyle Kuzma or Jeff Green right around $4,500.
C: Anthony Davis is the highest-priced player on the slate at $11,400. Brook Lopez is next at $5,800 while P.J. Tucker remains too cheap at $5,600. Don't use anyone else.
Injury Situations to Monitor
What's funny is that we have only one injury to worry about, but it happens to be the most important person on the slate.
Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL)
Giannis looked dominant in the first quarter of Game 4 but re-aggravated an ankle injury that he suffered in Game 3. That had him leaving the locker room in a walking boot, making it hard to imagine that he'll be ready to suit up here. If he doesn't, look for Khris Middleton and Eric Bledsoe to carry the load.
Kelly Olynyk/Tyler Herro/Jae Crowder (MIA)
All of these guys have questionable tags but all three have been playing each game. This is just posturing by Erik Spoelstra and they should all be ready to go.
JaVale McGee (LAL)
McGee left Game 3 with an ankle issue but hasn't been making much of an impact anyway. If he's out, look for Dwight Howard to pick up his 15 or so minutes.
Elite Players
It seems as though all the elite players are seeing their prices raised. That has Anthony Davis, LeBron James and James Harden all at $10,800 or higher, with Giannis Antetokounmpo falling just $200 behind. We're going to have to pick between two of these guys yet again and it's hard to fade AD with such a tasty matchup against a small Rockets team, especially the way he's playing.
Expected Chalk
Khris Middleton, MIL ($8,000)
If you don't already know, Middleton runs the show whenever Giannis is out. As such, expect Middleton to be rostered universally. He was still 59 percent used on Sunday's slate despite Giannis making the lineup and it's only going to be higher here if Antetokounmpo sits as expected. With him off the floor this year, Middleton has a 34 percent usage rate while averaging 1.4 FD points per minute.
Bam Adebayo, MIA ($8,500) / Robert Covington, HOU ($6,700)
With Anthony Davis being shifted over to center, that leaves the power forward position extremely thin. Bam Adebayo is the top player here, with Robert Covington following him up at $6,700. If you don't use those two, you have to use a super risky guy like Kuzma or Green. That means almost everyone will be rostering these two in their PF slots and honestly, it's the smart move. Both of these guys are rolling right now too, with Adebayo averaging 42.4 FD points per game in the playoffs while Covington is averaging 40.4 fantasy points per game across his last five fixtures. Jeff Green is the only other option I'd even think about.
Key Values
Jae Crowder, MIA ($5,100)
What is FanDuel doing here? Crowder has been in my article every time the Heat play and he just continues to be undervalued. I was sure that his price would be raised after dropping 30 FD points Sunday but here we are again at $5,100. He has now scored at least 29 fantasy points in three-straight, averaging 34 minutes per game. Just keep riding him until he gets to the $6,000 price tag he's earned.
Eric Bledsoe, MIL ($5,200)
This is the most mind-boggling price out there. I was sure Bledsoe would be $7,000 with Giannis looking unlikely to play, but instead he has the same $5,200 price tag. Without Giannis on the floor this season, Bledsoe averaged 1.4 FD points per minute while posting a usage rate north of 30 percent. That's absurd at this price tag and that would equate to 42 FanDuel points, if he plays 30 minutes. He'll likely play more than that after recording 39 minutes Sunday and this is simply the free square of the day.
Tyler Herro, MIA ($5,000)
Herro has been too good to be sitting at just $5K. Not only has he played at least 28 minutes in 12 of his last 13 games, Herro is also averaging over 28 FanDuel points per game in that span. That's north of 5X value and it's really all you can ask for from someone priced so affordably.
