This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
We have a massive, 11-game slate available Thursday, with several value pivots to comb through. Let's get right to it, beginning with the spreads and totals .
SLATE OVERVIEW
IND (-8.5) vs, HOU O/U: 221
NOR (-4.5) @ ORL O/U: 210.5
PHI (-9.5) vs. ATL O/U: 214.5
MIA (-10.5) vs. DET O/U: 206
WAS (-1) @ NYK O/U: 208.5
MIL (-5) @ DAL O./U: 215.5
DEN (-3.5) vs. CHA O/U: 229.5
UTA (-10.5) vs. MIN O/U: 226
PHO (-14.5) vs. OKC O/U: 215
GSW (-6) vs. MEM O/U: 217.5
LAL (-1.5) vs. SAS O/U: 224
I've crunched some models that project to 400 and higher for today's slate, so you will need to pop a very high number to bink A GPP tonight. If you aren't an MME player, you'll be behind the 8-ball, but a solid lineup with upside is doable in single-entry GPPs and cash games.
INJURIES
HOU Kevin Porter (thigh) - OUT
HOU Jalen Green (hamstring) - PROBABLE
Green's potential return will shuffle the long-term injury pivots around, and this shake-up will make any budget plays less palatable with so many options available.
IND Malcolm Brogdon (Achilles) - QUESTIONABLE
One can only ope that the Achilles injury wasn't too serious, but with an injury like that, Brogdon is likely to miss. His absence will shift the backcourt load to Caris LeVert ($6,400).
NOP Jonas Valanciunas (illness) - OUT
NOP Nickeil Alexander-Walker (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
Willy Hernangomez ($4,600) is your best pivot option for Valanciunas Thursday.
ORL Cole Anthony (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE
ORL Wendell Carter (leg) - QUESTIONABLE
ORL Mo Bamba (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
ORL Terrence Ross (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
ORL Mychal Mulder (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
ORL R.J. Hampton (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
ORL Moritz Wagner (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
Gary Harris ($5,600) and Hassani Gravett ($4,200) are Orlando's best guard pivots if Anthony misses tonight. Franz Wagner ($6,800) will see a lot of work tonight, and Robin Lopez ($5,700) will start after an excellent 37-FP line in his last outing.
ATL Trae Young (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
ATL Clint Capela (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
ATL Kevin Huerter (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
ATL Danilo Gallinari (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
Cam Reddish ($4,300) slipped out of my scope in the last game, so I own that omission. Delon Wright ($4,500) did pretty much what we expected, and John Collins ($7,700) was very impressive. I am inclined to press the brakes on Onyeka Okongwu due to the array of options available at center.
PHI Andre Drummond (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
PHI Shake Milton (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
PHI Danny Green (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
Philly's first unit isn't affected much by these absences, and there isn't a low-cost pivot worth mentioning.
DET Cade Cunningham (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
DET Jerami Grant (thumb) - OUT
Saben Lee ($5,000) and Hamidou Diallo ($4,800) are the best budget picots in this game, while Saddiq Bey ($6,400) and Isaiah Stewart ($5,600) will carry a full load with the first unit.
MIA Jimmy Butler (back) -OUT
MIA Bam Adebayo (thumb) - OUT
MIA P.J. Tucker (leg) - OUT
MIA Cody Martin (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
These injury spots are nothing new. It'll be up to Kyle Lowry ($7,900) and Tyler Herro ($6,200) to do a lot of the heavy lifting against Detroit, and Max Strus ($5,800) will be the most likely candidate to beat value at his salary.
NYK Derrick Rose (ankle) - OUT
NYK Immanuel Quickley (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
NYK Quentin Grimes (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
NYK Miles McBride (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
NYK Nerlens Noel (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
The slew of backcourt absences clears the way for Kemba Walker ($6,600) to have an impact, especially with Derrick Rose out for a few months. Mitchell Robinson ($5,700) is worth a pivot mention here due to his recent explosive play. He registered 43 FP in his last game against Detroit.
MIL Giannis Antetokounmpo (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
MIL Bobby Portis (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
MIL Donte DiVincenzo (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
MIL Sandro Mamukelashvili (illness) - QUESTIONABLE
We'll mention some obvious options shortly, but we should expect above-average numbers for DeMarcus Cousins ($6,000) and Jordan Nwora ($6,900).
DAL Luka Doncic (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
DAL Kristaps Porzingis (toe) QUESTIONABLE
DAL Tim Hardaway (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
DAL Trey Burke (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
DAL Maxi Kleber (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
DAL Reggie Bullock (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
Porzingis has an excellent chance to take over the game if he plays. Otherwise, Doncic's absence remains a good opportunity for Jalen Brunson ($7,400), while Sterling Brown ($4,400), Theo Pinson ($4,600) and Frank Ntilikina ($3,900) will provide budget value.
CHA Cody Martin (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
Not much changes with the first unit, but Jalen McDaniels will pick up more minutes in Martin's absence.
MIN Anthony Edwards (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
MIN Jarred Vanderbilt (COVID-19 Protocols) - O
MIN Patrick Beverley (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
MIN Naz Reid (calf) - QUESTIONABLE
MIN Jaylen Nowell (thumb) - QUESTIONABLE
Pivot to the starters here, with special attention to Malik Beasley ($5,300) as a replacement.
GSW Andrew Wiggins (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
GSW Jordan Poole (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
GSW Damion Lee (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
Otto Porter ($4,500) and Gary Payton ($4,700) lead the way as pivots for the Warriors tonight.
LAL Anthony Davis (knee) - OUT
LAL Kent Bazemore (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
Dwight Howard ($4,500) is back in action and should do a lot of work under center for Davis, while Carmelo Anthony ($5,200) will also help to prop up the interior game for the Lakers.
To summarize what we just covered, I think Hernangomez, LeVert, Reddish and Porter are my best four out of this section.
ELITE PLAYERS
Nikola Jokic ($11,300) disappointed many a DFS player with a horrible total Wednesday, but it would be foolish to think of this as anything more than an outlier. He's a great option against Charlotte. He's also my favorite center at the top, as Joel Embiid and Karl-Anthony Towns are also lurking at similar price points. Embiid ($10,700) might also be too good to pass up against the Capela-less Hawks.
Elsewhere in the 9k-plus range, I expect Stephen Curry ($9,700) and Dejounte Murray ($9,900) to excel tonight. Murray's salary is interesting because his high cost could create a contrarian position, making his value less about paying off and more about his exposure to the field. Jrue Holiday ($9,500) is also in play, but unlike Murray, his high salary won't have the same benefit of low exposure.
I'll round out the elites by going a little lower to Julius Randle ($8,700), who will have his work cut out for him amidst a depleted roster against the Wizards. I am also a big fan of the Pacers against Houston, making Domantas Sabonis ($8,600) an ideal elite play.
Also consider: Donovan Mitchell, UTA ($8,400) vs. MIN
EXPECTED CHALK + CORE TARGETS
Deandre Ayton, PHO ($8,100) vs. OKC
With Devin Booker back in the fold, even more assists should come Ayton's way, and he's in a very exploitative spot against the Thunder. He's coming off a nice double-double against the Lakers and will look to continue the streak at home.
D'Angelo Russell, MIN ($7,800) @ UTA
With his teammate Anthony Edwards out, Russell will need to put in a full line in an effort to pull an upset on the road. While he's had excellent scoring totals recently, his assist totals are crucial to paying off at this salary. With any luck, KAT can gain some traction against Rudy Gobert and deliver with some assist connections for Russell.
Khris Middleton, MIL ($7,700) @ DAL
Middleton's salary is great and looks to be a much better option than Holiday, as the salary differential will probably pay off for Middleton against the Mavs, who will be playing without several playmakers. Middleton possesses a historically solid floor, but he hasn't popped above that as much as we would have hoped in Giannis' absence. Still, this salary is worth considering due to the potential upside in this matchup.
Tobias Harris, PHI ($7,100) vs. ATL
As I go through the slate, Embiid's worthiness grows slightly, but Harris is equally viable at an exceedingly rare low salary. While John Collins is doing admirable work inside amidst Atlanta's injury woes, Harris should be able to beat value, especially after a day of rest due to a postponed game. 40 FP is a definite possibility in this spot.
Tyrese Maxey, PHI ($6,600) vs. ATL
Seth Curry ($6,700) is also viable, but Maxey was playing top-notch ball before being saddled with a quad injury, and there is currently no news about a minute restriction. Curry becomes a better option if we hear differently, but both players have value against an Atlanta team that's playing without Trae Young.
Also consider: Cole Anthony (if he plays), ORL ($7,700) vs, NOP
VALUE PLAYS
Most of my value plays exist as pivots in the injury section, and I have already highlighted some of my favorites. Here are some additional values that slipped through the cracks.
Myles Turner, IND ($6,400) vs. HOU
The undersized Rockets represent a smash spot for both Turner and Domantas Sabonis, and Turner has been holding his own alongside his teammate. The big man has swatted an eye-popping 15 blocks over his past four games. If he can get his shot volume to over 10 attempts, he could easily find himself in double-double territory.
Will Barton, DEN ($5,600) vs. CHA
Perhaps a few days of rest will cure what is ailing Barton, who is still at a reasonable salary despite some ugly shooting performances. He's only averaged 20 FP over his last three games, and we need more than that for Barton to pay off. Low rostership and potential upside are the two green flags in Barton's favor here.
Jordan Clarkson, UTA ($5,000) vs. MIN
The perennial Sixth Man of the Year candidate is way too cheap, especially against the Timberwolves in what could be a blowout scenario at home. Clarkson is always good with garbage time in a lopsided matchup, but he will get extended time whenever he's hot right away. He usually gets to the floor midway through the first quarter, and a lot depends on how he's faring in the early moments. The usage volatility is of some concern, but the favorable matchup negates most of the worry about Clarkson's potential.
Also consider: Kyle Kuzma, WAS ($5,400) @ NYK
