This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
We have a typically compact four-game slate Sunday evening, and there are some big names on the injury report that could thin the player pool out a bit further. The uncertainty of certain key players has made all but one game off the board in terms of projected totals as of early Sunday morning, but at least all but one (Nets-Wizards) of the four contests is projected to be competitive.
Slate Overview
The only game with a projected total on FanDuel Sportsbook as of early Sunday is the Cavaliers-Timberwolves matchup (219.0 points), but here's a further look at the two games that will likely carry the highest projected totals when issued:
Brooklyn Nets at Washington Wizards
There's a chance James Harden misses Sunday's game due to a thigh injury, but the Nets still pack a ton of firepower and the Wizards are simply a mess defensively. Brooklyn is scoring an NBA-high 121.0 points per game (122.5 per road contest), while the Wizards are surrendering the second-most points per contest (120.1). The Nets also face their own defensive issues having given up 116.2 points per contest. Washington is allowing the second-highest shooting percentage (48.6) and plays at the second-fastest pace (107.6 possessions per game). All those metrics project a high-scoring affair, especially with Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal also available for Washington.
Philadelphia 76ers at Indiana Pacers
If Joel Embiid's back tightness costs him Sunday's game, the 76ers' offensive upside naturally takes a hit. However, Philadelphia still boast the likes of Tobias Harris, Ben Simmons, and - when hot - Seth Curry to help keep the scoreboard busy. On the other side, the Pacers' Malcolm Brogdon, Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner are among those who could contribute to a high total, while it's worth noting the Sixers (113.6 PPG) and Pacers (113.3 PPG) rank in the top half of the league in scoring.
Injury Situations to Monitor
NOTE: Injury reporting is especially fluid in the NBA, where the status of multiple players can change during the course of a day. Therefore, although the following serves as a foundation for the latest injury report as of the time the article is written, check back throughout the course of the day with RotoWire for the latest news regarding the status of all players on that night's slate.
James Harden, BRO (thigh)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE
Harden's left thigh contusion puts his availability in doubt. And if he does sit out Sunday, the usage rates of Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant should skyrocket, while Bruce Brown could likely draw a start at two-guard.
Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN (COVID-19 protocols)/ Status: OUT
Towns' confirmed ongoing absence stands to afford Naz Reid (wrist) another start at center if he's able to overcome his own questionable designation. If Reid also sits out, Ed Davis could draw the start at the five.
Joel Embiid, PHI (back)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE
Embiid's nagging back tightness makes him a 50/50 proposition to play Sunday. If he sits, Dwight Howard and Tony Bradley would absorb the majority of minutes at center.
D'Angelo Russell, MIN (quadriceps)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE
Russell was able to return from a three-game absence Friday due to quad issues. If he's forced to take a seat again Sunday, Ricky Rubio should draw the start at point guard.
Norman Powell, TOR (quadriceps)/ Status: DOUBTFUL
Powell's likely absence, combined with a confirmed one for OG Anunoby, means Yuta Watanabe should see extended minutes.
Naz Reid, MIN (wrist) Status: QUESTIONABLE
If Reid is forced to sit out, Ed Davis could start at center.
OG Anunoby, TOR (calf)/ Status: OUT
Anunoby's continued absence and Norman Powell's doubtful status could lead to Yuta Watanabe drawing a start at small forward and slightly elevated usage rates for other members of the starting five.
Other notable injuries:
Doug McDermott, IND (back)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE
Raul Neto, WAS (groin)/ Status: OUT
Jarrett Culver, MIN (ankle)/ Status: OUT
Mike Scott, PHI (knee)/ Status: OUT
Elite Players
With just eight teams in action Sunday evening, there are four players with five-figure salaries - and only three healthy. Bradley Beal ($11,000) is up top, with James Harden ($10,700) and Kevin Durant ($10,600) behind. From that group, Beal faces a very favorable matchup against a Nets' team that's been surprisingly vulnerable defensively while Harden's questionable status naturally must be monitored carefully. If Harden misses, Durant should be in an excellent position to benefit.
There are also several players with salaries in the high four-figures who offers the ability to deliver elite scores, including Joel Embiid ($9,900), Russell Westbrook ($9,600), Nikola Vucevic ($9,400), Kyrie Irving ($9,300), Domantas Sabonis ($9,100) and Andre Drummond ($9,000). Embiid does carry a questionable tag due to back tightness, while Irving is another member of the Nets who could deliver an excellent return on investment if Harden sits. Meanwhile, Drummond is an excellent positional matchup against a depleted center position for the Timberwolves, while Ben Simmons ($8,800) and Fred VanVleet ($8,700) are two other players that could overdeliver on their salaries based on matchup - and in Simmons' case, a possible Embiid absence.
Expected Chalk
All the names mentioned in Elite Players section are naturally going to be very popular Sunday. And with just eight teams on the court, there's inevitably going to be some heavily rostered superstars. With respect to injury-created chalk, Irving and Durant would see skyrocketing popularity if Harden's absence came to pass while the healthy, prominent first-unit members of the 76ers and Timberwolves would also see even more clicks than usual if Embiid and Russell were to miss their respective clubs' Sunday games.
Key Values
Aaron Gordon, ORL at TOR ($5,500)
Gordon's salary is unusually low, but the drop is explained by back-to-back poor outings where he's shot a combined 5-for-22 on his way to only 12 combined points against the Kings and Clippers. However, Gordon had scored 30.1 to 55.4 points in 10 of the previous 11 games representing an excellent return on his current value. The recent struggles could certainly make him less popular than usual Sunday, but he certainly has the talent to outpace the investment required to roster. The Raptors are also ranked in the bottom half of the league in offensive efficiency allowed to frontcourt players (79.9 percent), while Toronto checks in also giving up 41.6 FD points per game to power forwards.
Darius Garland, CLE at MIN ($5,200)
Garland's salary has remained exceedingly modest since his return from an eight-game absence due to a shoulder injury, as it's taken time for him to ramp up both his minutes and production. However, he's on the right track in both areas and now has been back in the starting five for two contests and raised his FD-point tallies to 25.4 and 31.1. Garland should have a chance to give his numbers another boost Sunday, as the opposing Timberwolves have been exposed by point guards all season allowing the second-most per-game FD points (60.4), most points (32.4) and fifth-most assists (9.2) to the position. Garland has also encouragingly taken double-digit shot attempts in three straight, so he should be sufficiently involved against the fast-paced T-Wolves to offer a strong return on his salary.
DeAndre Jordan, BKN at WAS ($4,900)
Jordan has delivered over a 5x return on his current salary in seven consecutive games and in eight of his last nine. That's an excellent stretch of play since reentering the starting lineup following the trade of Jarrett Allen to Cleveland and draws a matchup Sunday where he can continue his strong run. The Wizards are arguably better off down low defensively with Robin Lopez taking over for Thomas Bryant (knee), but they're still allowing the fourth-most FD points per game to centers (40.7), along with the seventh-highest offensive efficiency rating to the position (33.7 percent).
Other value plays to consider: Jarrett Allen, CLE at MIN ($5,800); Cole Anthony, ORL at TOR ($5,200)
