This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
There are only two NBA games Sunday as most teams will play Monday on Martin Luther King Day. Let's see what the Sunday slate has to offer.
Slate Overview
SAN vs. MIA: Miami is a 1.5-point road favorite with a total of 221. What's interesting is the contrast in pace. The Heat are one of the slowest-paced teams, ranking 26th, while the Spurs play the 11th-fastest pace in the NBA.
DEN vs. IND: Denver is a 1.5-point favorite. This should be a defensive struggle — the over/under is 211. That's no surprise when you see that both of these clubs are top 7 in fewest points allowed. The pace only adds to the low-scoring nature, with the Nuggets 29th in pace and the Pacers ranked 23rd.
Positional Breakdown
PG: Malcolm Brogdon is the most expensive point guard at $6,800. Dejounte Murray is next at $5,500, while Kendrick Nunn and Goran Dragic follow in the $5,000 range. Monte Morris should start for Jamal Murray and is one of the chalkiest players at $4,000.
SG: Jimmy Butler is at the top at $9,100 while DeMar DeRozan is next at $8,700. Jeremy Lamb and Gary Harris are next but both might be out. If you're looking for someone cheap, Duncan Robinson, Malik Beasley, Tyler Herro and Bryn Forbes are $3,900 to $4,500.
SF: Will Barton is the highest-priced player at $6,600 and is one of the best plays on the board with Murray, Harris and Millsap sidelined. T.J. Warren is also a great play at $5,700 with Derrick Jones Jr. next at $4,500. Justin Holiday is really the only worthy punt play at the position.
PF: Domantas Sabonis is $9,400 while Bam Adebayo is $8,800. LaMarcus Aldridge is next at $7,500. Picking between these three is going to be key. If you want someone cheaper, Jerami Grant is a nice value at $4,000. Michael Porter Jr. is also at $5,200, but his minutes are volatile and he could be chalky.
C: Nikola Jokic likely will have 75 percent ownership. The reason is the second-best center is an inconsistent Myles Turner at $6,200. After that, It's players like Meyers Leonard, Jakob Poeltl and Mason Plumlee, who are all untrustworthy.
Injuries to Monitor
Tyler Herro (MIA): Herro has missed the last two games due to a knee injury and is questionable to play. If he remains out, look for Kendrick Nunn, Goran Dragic and Derrick Jones Jr. to pick up the most value.
Rudy Gay (SAN): Gay was rested in the last game for old age but should be fully ready to return to his 20-minute bench role.
Victor Oladipo (IND): While Oladipo's return is just a week away, he remains out. Malcolm Brogdon has been a borderline All-Star in his absence.
Jeremy Lamb (IND): Lamb injured his hip Friday and is questionable to play. If he's out, look for T.J. Warren to take a ton of shots and for Justin Holiday to likely replace him in the starting lineup.
Gary Harris (DEN): Harris won't play because of a groin issue. While Torrey Craig started for him on Thursday, he has little fantasy intrigue.
Paul Millsap (DEN): Millsap has missed a few weeks because of a knee problem and will sit again. Jerami Grant has started in his absence while Mason Plumlee has seen a few extra minutes too.
Jamal Murray (DEN): Murray is out a couple weeks because of an ankle sprain. Monte Morris could start for him again Sunday. That said, Malik Beasley and Will Barton see the biggest bumps in usage.
Elite Players
Domantas Sabonis vs. Bam Adebayo
Sabonis is $600 more than Adebayo, which makes Bam is the superior option. To put it simply, he has the much better matchup. Sabonis plays a slow-paced Denver team that is fifth in points allowed while Adebayo squares off with a 23rd-ranked Spurs defense. Bam has been better recently too, scoring at least 38 FanDuel points in five of his last six games while Sabonis is coming off an 18-point dud in his most recent outing against a poor Timberwolves defense.
Jimmy Butler vs. DeMar DeRozan
While many will use both of these players, I think it's better to pick one and go with a value like Robinson or Beasley. This is easily the toughest decision on the slate, though. We'll go with Butler because of the matchup. In fact, Butler faces a 23rd-ranked Spurs defense while DeRozan opposes a Miami team that surrenders the fifth-fewest fantasy points to shooting guards. That should slow a scorching-hot DeRozan and we can't overlook the fact that Butler has been the better producer all year too, averaging 4.9 FD more points per game.
Expected Chalk
Nikola Jokic, DEN ($10,000)
We'll keep this one simple. Jokic is really the only viable option at center, which makes him nearly impossible to fade. Myles Turner is next but he gets a horrible matchup against Jerami Grant and this top-5 defense. Jokic faces an Indiana team that owns a 24th OPRK against centers. After Turner, it's a bunch of nobodies and people need to spend their money somewhere. Look for Jokic to be the highest-owned player by a significant margin, but I wouldn't fade him if I were you.
Monte Morris, DEN ($4,000)
With Murray, Harris and Millsap out, Morris should start at point guard and have high ownership. While he struggled in the first game in this role, his expanded workload will get attention. The price will draw fantasy owners, though. Morris performed at a $7,000-level last season in starts for Murray, and he'll surely be one of the chalkiest players Sunday at just $4,000.
Key Values
Jerami Grant, DEN ($4,000)
Most are going to pivot to Morris, Porter and Beasley as the cheap Nuggets, but don't overlook this guy. Grant has started regularly for Millsap, averaging 25.5 FD points per game in 30.5 minutes per game in his last six starts. Those are stupendous numbers from a $4,000 player, and he should be asked to play at least 30 minutes against a frontline with Sabonis and Turner. We also expect his ownership remaining low, with most pivoting to Adebayo, Sabonis and Aldridge at power forward.
Duncan Robinson, MIA ($3,900)
This price made my jaw drop. We're talking about a guy who's played at least 27 minutes in seven consecutive games while playing at least 36 minutes in back-to-back games. That's a crazy workload from a player less than $4,000, and it's led to him scoring at least 21 FanDuel points in four of his last five games. The matchup is the icing on the cake, though, facing a San Antonio club that is 23rd in defensive efficiency.
