This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
With some huge football games being played today, we have a five-game NBA slate ahead of us. All of the games present single-digit spreads and most of them have bad defenses on display, so it should be a fun day for some DFS!
Slate Overview
BRK vs. ATL: This should be a wild game with a ton of value. What we love is the pace, as this 232-point total is easily the highest on the slate. We also have Brooklyn as a 5.5-point favorite and this should remain a competitive ballgame between two awful defenses.
TOR vs. SAN: While we don't have a spread with all of the injuries in Toronto, we anticipate the Raptors being about a 6.5-point favorite. What's fascinating is we have DeMar DeRozan playing some of the best ball of his career right now and returning to the city that made a name for him. Look for DD to be very motivated.
MEM vs. GS: Memphis enters this matchup as a 6.5-point favorite. Both Ds here haven't been impressive, with the Warriors sitting 20th in defensive efficiency and the Grizzlies ranked 27th in points allowed.
DEN vs. LAC: This is easily the best game of the day, with both clubs battling for the two-seed in the Western Conference. That's why we're looking at Denver as a 1.5-point favorite in a game with a total of 221. That total does seem high to me because these are two of the best defenses in the NBA.
PHX vs. CHA: It's rare to see the Suns as an 8.5-point favorite, but that's what we have here. This is yet another game with poor defenses on display, with Charlotte sitting 28th in defensive efficiency and Phoenix ranked 25th in points allowed.
Positional Breakdown
PG: If Trae Young suits up, he's one of the best plays of the day at $10,200. Kyle Lowry is next at $8,300 while Ja Morant, Ricky Rubio, Kyrie Irving, Spencer Dinwiddie, Terry Rozier and Jamal Murray all sit around $7,000. If you're looking for cheaper options, Patrick Beverley, Dejounte Murray and Brandon Goodwin all are intriguing.
SG: Devin Booker is the cream of the crop at $8,800. DeMar DeRozan, D'Angelo Russell and Devonte' Graham are all in play between $6,800 and $7,400. Kevin Huerter and Caris LeVert represent great values at $5,400 while Damion Lee, Patrick McCaw and Gary Harris all make for nice punt plays.
SF: With Paul George and Pascal Siakam likely out up top, Kelly Oubre Jr. is the highest-priced guy at $7,000. Will Barton follows him up at $6,700 while Alec Burks, Miles Bridges, Taurean Prince, Glenn Robinson III, Joe Harris and OG Anunoby make for solid cheap plays.
PF: With PG-13 out, Kawhi Leonard is one of the chalkiest plays of the day at $9,700. If Trae Young is out, John Collins would follow his suit at $8,300. Serge Ibaka, Jaren Jackson Jr. and LaMarcus Aldridge all sit in the $7,000s while PJ Washington, Jarrett Allen and Draymond Green range in the high $5,000s. If you want someone cheap, consider Omari Spellman, Jerami Grant or JaMychal Green.
C: Nikola Jokic is the elite, at just below five-figures. Deandre Ayton is next at $7,800 while Montrezl Harrell and Jonas Valanciunas each sit at $6,500. The cheap options are weak, but you could pivot to Aron Baynes, Ivica Zubac or Bismack Biyombo if you're feeling crazy.
Injuries to Monitor
Trae Young (ATL): Young is questionable because of a hamstring issue. This would be the biggest absence on the slate and would make John Collins and Kevin Huerter tough to avoid if he's out.
Kyrie Irving (BRK): There's some thought Irving might make his return here. That would kill the value of Spencer Dinwiddie. With that said, Irving is a tough sell and likely looking at limited minutes.
Pascal Siakam/Marc Gasol/Norman Powell/Fred VanVleet (TOR): Kyle Lowry has been the best Raptor in their absences while OG Anunoby, Serge Ibaka, Patrick McCaw, Terence Davis and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson have also taken on much bigger workloads. Powell is actually the closest to a return and there's some belief he may be back here. The other two are questionable but are not expected to suit up and FVV has already been ruled out.
D'Angelo Russell (GS): While Russell has been in and out of the lineup because of a shoulder issue, he's expected to return. If he doesn't, look for Alec Burks to take on most of the usage and Ky Bowman possibly getting another start.
Stephen Curry/Klay Thompson (GS): These two remain out for a while, as D'Angelo Russell has been the Warriors best player in their absences. It's increased the value of Alec Burks. Omari Spellman, Damion Lee and Glenn Robinson III as well.
Paul Millsap (DEN): Millsap has been dealing with a knee issue for weeks. That has forced Jerami Grant into the starting lineup and skyrocketed his fantasy value.
Paul George (LAC): George has already been ruled out because of a hamstring issue. That should increase usage for Kawhi Leonard, Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell. It also makes Patrick Beverley and JaMychal Green more fantasy relevant.
Elite Players
Nikola Jokic vs. Kawhi Leonard
These two guys come in within $100 of one another, but there's one clear-cut option of the two. It's Kawhi Leonard! The reason for that is because he's averaged 3.5 more FanDuel points per game on the season and gets to play this contest without his second weapon. That leaves about 15-20 shots and a 25 percent usage rate that needs to be made up and Kawhi will be happy to take that on in what should be a feisty matchup between two great teams.
Jonas Valanciunas vs. Montrezl Harrell
These two are the same price at center and it's definitely a decision you'll have to make with only a handful of centers as viable options. While Valanciunas faces the better matchup, we like Harrell. The reason for that is because he's managed a 27.2 percent usage rate with Paul George off the floor. That paired with the fact Harrell's average is 3.2 fantasy points higher than JV makes him the easy pick between the two.
Expected Chalk
Kawhi Leonard, LAC ($9,700)
With Paul George missing this game, everyone is going to want to use Leonard. In the last game without him, Kawhi collected 36 points, nine rebounds, five assists and three steals en route to 61.3 FanDuel points. The simple fact is, Leonard has a 37 percent usage rate with PG off the floor while averaging 1.6 FD points per minute.
Devin Booker, PHX ($8,800)
DFS owners always take notice of streaky players and they're surely aware of Booker's recent exploits. Not only has he recorded at least 41 FanDuel points in eight-straight games, he's also averaging nearly 50 fantasy points per game during that span. That would make him chalky against anyone below $9,000, but especially against a 27th-ranked Hornets' defense.
Key Values
Terry Rozier, CHA ($6,700)
I truly don't understand this price tag. Rozier is currently playing the best basketball of his career and recent production would indicate he should be about $8,000. Not only has he registered at least 36 FD points in five straight, he's also averaging 39.6 minutes and 18.4 shots per game over that stretch. That's an absurd usage and it makes him really attractive against a Suns' squad who rank 25th in total defense.
Kevin Huerter, ATL ($5,400)
Huerter was on the border of finding his way into my chalk section, but I think this is chalk you can swallow. We're talking about someone who's averaging 34.1 FanDuel points per game across 35 minutes over his last eight games. That's the production of a $7,500 player and it's amazing he remains so cheap. The possibility of playing without Young only adds to his allure and that doesn't even take into consideration he faces a 21st-ranked Nets' defense.
Omari Spellman, GS ($4,400)
Spellman got a rare start on Friday and responded with one of the best games of his career. In that loss to the Clippers, Omari provided 34.5 FD points in 27 minutes of action. This is a team desperate for a spark and we have to love him at this price if he gets another start here. Not to mention, he faces a 28th-ranked Grizzlies' D.
Some other nice values include: Taurean Prince, Joe Harris, Patrick Beverley, Montrezl Harrell, Jerami Grant, JaMychal Green, Damion Lee, Cam Reddish and Brandon Goodwin.
