This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
FanDuel's main slate kicks off at 4:00 p.m. on Saturday, and it will be a challenging set of games for multiple reasons. Several teams are on back-to-backs, and there are also a lot of injuries to cover. Our rundown of the injures and potential pivots is by far the most critical part of this article, and it's possible to craft entire lineups based on those pivots. Be sure to re-read that section before moving on with your day.
SLATE OVERVIEW
CHI @ ORL (+1.5) O/U: 223.5
SAS @ HOU (-1.5) O/U: 222.5
MIN @ OKC (+1.5) O/U: 218.5
TOR @ ATL (+6.5) O/U: 222.5
BKN @ PHI (-2.5) O/U: 237.5
MIL @ CLE (+10.5) O/U: 226.5
GSW @ DAL (-3.5) O/U: 231.5
MEM @ NOR (-1.5) O/U: 227.5
DET @ LAL (-14.5) O/U: 217.5
(odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook and are subject to change)
Games to Target: BOLD
Games to Fade: ITALIC
BACK-TO-BACK TEAMS: Bulls, Magic, Warriors, Mavericks, Raptors, Nets, Thunder, Timberwolves, Pelicans, Pistons
INJURIES
CHI Lauri Markkanen (shoulder) - DOUBTFUL
CHI Wendell Carter (quad) - OUT
Once again, Thaddeus Young ($7,100) is a decent pivot, but his salary has skyrocketed. This is a back-to-back for the Bulls, so I wouldn't be supremely confident about anyone here, but Patrick Williams ($4,300) was the guy who saw the most significant boost in the frontcourt with a career-high 20 points on Friday.
ORL Aaron Gordon (ankle) - OUT
ORL Michael Carter-Williams (foot) - OUT
Nailing down a good pivot for Gordon is challenging, as no particular player has separated from the pack. James Ennis ($3,600) isn't a thrilling option, and neither is Khem Birch ($4,500), but of the two, I would go with the latter.
TOR OG Anunoby (calf) - OUT
The Raptors are another team I am not thrilled about on a back-to-back against the Hawks. Norman Powell ($6,400) has started in place of Anunoby and fared relatively well.
ATL Trae Young (calf) - QUESTIONABLE
Pivot to Rajon Rondo ($4,300) if Young misses another game. The other injury situations for Atlanta are too muddy to recommend a sensible pivot.
CLE Kevin Love (calf) - OUT
CLE Larry Nance (wrist) - QUESTIONABLE
It would be surprising to see Nance take the floor Saturday. Taurean Prince ($5,200) has gotten more run than any other player in this injury scenario. Jarret Allen is generally a better pivot for Andre Drummond ($6,900), who could sit on this back-to-back as he returns from injury.
SAS Dejounte Murray (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE
SAS LaMarcus Aldridge (hip) - OUT
SAS Lonnie Walker (illness) - OUT
Despite the gradual price increases, Keldon Johnson ($5,300) is still a great value with upside for the Spurs, but this could also be a night for Derrick White ($5,400) to open things up if Murray is sidelined. He could also conceivably start at the two due to Walker's absence. Patty Mills ($3,800) is another option at point guard, but I'd only use him if Murray is a confirmed scratch.
HOU Christian Wood (ankle) - OUT
HOU John Wall (back) - QUESTIONABLE
The Boogie show returns! DeMarcus Cousins ($5,900) will once again fill in for Wood, and he should be one of the chalkiest centers on the slate today. He averaged double-double numbers the last time he started in Wood's place, and I expect good things in an intrastate matchup with the Spurs and their depleted frontcourt. Both Eric Gordon ($5,600) and Jae'Sean Tate ($5,400) will excel if Wall is sidelined.
OKC Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (knee) - QUESTIONABLE
OKC Theo Maledon (COVID-19) - QUESTIONABLE
OKC Luguentz Dort (knee) - QUESTIONABLE
The Thunder targets are the cloudiest on the slate, thanks to this flurry of injuries. SGA's 27-percent usage rate would radically change the scenario here if he plays. Hamidou Diallo ($5,900) should still see a significant role in the offense regardless, and if Dort remains out, Isaiah Roby ($3,900) will start and remain an excellent value on the slate.
BKN Kevin Durant (COVID-19) - OUT
Yesterday's rumors were true - Durant is now in contact tracing and did not travel with the team. We'll discuss the elites in this matchup in a moment, but decent Durant pivots are Jeff Green ($5,100), Joe Harris ($5,300) and DeAndre Jordan ($5,100), in that order.
PHI Joel Embiid (knee) - QUESTIONABLE
PHI Seth Curry (illness) - QUESTIONABLE
While it's a good matchup for Embiid if he plays, Cousins will take up so many spots in my builds, and I won't concern myself with Embiid too much. Both Furkan Korkmaz ($4,100) and Tyrese Maxey ($4,500) are great value options if Curry misses another game.
NOTE: Of all games tonight, the PHI/BKN game has the highest probability of a postponement right now.
GSW James Wiseman (wrist) - OUT
GSW Eric Paschall (knee) - QUESTIONABLE
GSW Kevon Looney (ankle) - OUT
It looks like Steve Kerr tore out a sheet from Houston's 2020 playbook and went with a small-ball approach on Thursday, and it worked. Since both Wiseman and Looney will be out a while, we can go with these pivots for at least a few games. Juan Toscano-Anderson ($5,400) is probably my favorite of the group, and you have to love Draymond Green ($6,700) starting under center. I'll outline the top mid-range guy here in a moment.
MEM Brandon Clarke (calf) - QUESTIONABLE
The Grizzlies are happy to have Jonas Valanciunas ($7,300) back, but now Clarke has popped up on the report with a calf issue. If he can't go, several things could occur. Desmond Bane ($4,400) could shift to the three and slide Kyle Anderson ($5,400) over, or they could just shove Xavier Tillman ($5,200) in to run alongside JoVal. Long-term, a Tillman/JoVal front would be an excellent idea for Memphis, but a look at the starting five will be necessary here to check on Clarke's status.
ELITE PLAYERS
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,200) put up over 60 FDFP against Cleveland on Friday, and I see no reason why he can't be dominant again in the back end of the tilt. I doubt Giannis will sit, but it's always prudent to check. With Durant out, I like the Brooklyn elites a little bit better tonight. Between James Harden ($10,800) and Kyrie Irving ($9,500), I favor Harden more. The Warriors' blowout over the Mavs and Luka Doncic ($10,700) was a bit of a head-scratcher, but I think Dallas was surprised by the new-look lineup. They should be able to make some adjustments and get Doncic out in space, but I don't have him blowing up for a value-beating number.
Moving down, going with either LeBron James ($10,600) or Anthony Davis ($9,800) is a bit risky against the Pistons, as this game could be over as soon as it begins. It's important to note that LeBron logged 36 minutes WITHOUT Anthony Davis when the Lakers last played Detroit. The combo of both of them in this spot may hurt both players, but thanks to Davis' PF designation, he warrants serious consideration. Stephen Curry ($9,600) had a bit of an off night on Friday and saw his salary drop $300 as a result. The slight cost decrease makes Curry more appealing, but not entirely necessary.
Also consider: Nikola Vucevic, ORL ($8,800) vs. CHI
EXPECTED CHALK
Zach LaVine, CHI ($8,500) @ ORL
With Lauri Markkanen and Wendell Carter out, there will be more pressure on LaVine as they play Orlando again. Lavine came close enough to 5x value on Friday, and I expect a slight bump in usage tonight. LaVine is expensive but worth a look.
Kristaps Porzingis, DAL ($7,800) vs. GSW
Porzingis' line on Friday was a bit confounding because he should have had a great night against the Warriors in a height mismatch. He barely beat 5x value on Friday, but this matchup is still excellent, and I like him on FanDuel due to his PF designation.
D'Angelo Russell, MIN ($7,500) @ OKC
Russell is on a back-to-back, so there's a slight chance that he'll sit, but if he plays, I like him a lot against the Thunder, who will probably only field eight or nine guys tonight. He's a bit less appealing if SGA can play, but his last two games have hovered around 5x value, and he's in a great spot to open up the shooting valve tonight.
Kelly Oubre, GSW ($7,000) @ DAL
Oubre was the mid-range option I mentioned above. It took multiple frontcourt injuries for Oubre to finally break out. He had 40 points and eight rebounds against the Mavs, and it's hopefully the beginning of a resurgence for Oubre, who's been vastly under-utilized up to this point. The new small-ball scheme benefits him, and he should be a candidate to crush value again.
Also consider: Kyle Lowry, TOR ($8,500) @ ATL, John Collins, ATL ($6,900) vs. TOR
VALUE PLAYS ($6,667 and below)
I can't state this enough today - your values are all in the injury section, and the best way to take advantage is to be around for game lock so you can be accurate in your builds. I've provided three more options below, but the cheap stuff is back in the injury section.
Andrew Wiggins, GSW ($6,600) @ DAL
Wiggins played only 29 minutes on Friday, so he may be the freshest player available on this back-to-back. Oubre and Toscano-Anderson stole his thunder, and while I like both of them tonight, Wiggins should be poised to take on an increased role. He got into a bit of foul trouble, but the blowout didn't require his services, either. Wiggins should have much higher usage today.
Al Horford, OKC ($6,100) vs. MIN
Horford smashed as one of the few healthy players for the Thunder, and I think he's an excellent contrarian center who can lower your exposure to DeMarcus Cousins. Although Karl-Anthony Towns could show up any day now, I don't think we'll see him today, and that will leave Horford in a plum spot against weaker big men.
Delon Wright , DET ($5,300) @ LAL
Wright hasn't been spectacular, but his eight rebounds and four steals yielded an excellent stat line on Friday. It's a tough matchup against the Lakers on Saturday and also the fourth road game in a row, but a look at the statistical data shows a potentially exploitable spot for Wright. While the Lakers are excellent defensively at certain positions, they give up an average of 22 points and 7.9 assists to opposing point guards. While we are on Detroit, Josh Jackson ($4,400) holds an extremely attractive salary and is another viable target for the Pistons.
