This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
FanDuel excludes the early game between the Nuggets and the Sixers (who may not even play) and instead focuses on the slate of games beginning at 7:00 p.m. ET.
SLATE OVERVIEW
(Odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook and are subject to change)
Games/teams to Target in BOLD
Games/teams to Fade in ITALIC
ATL @ CHA (+4), O/U: 227
PHO @ IND (-3), O/U: 216
MIA @ WAS (+5.5), O/U: TBA
CLE @ MIL (-15.5), O/U: TBA
SAS @ MIN (+6.5), O/U: 231.5
ORL @ DAL (-6.5), O/U: 216.5
POR @ SAC (+4.5), O/U: TBA
BACK-TO-BACK GAMES: Wizards, Suns, Hornets, Magic
Despite the high game total for the Spurs and T-Wolves, elevated prices on Spurs elites and a lack of reliability for many Minnesota options put this contest on the backburner. The injuries in Cleveland and the blowout potential in the Cavs/Bucks game presented many opportunities on both teams, and the same is true for the Hawks and Hornets. For those who like to play NBA DFS like the MLB, Atlanta is the team to stack today.
INJURIES
The slate is relatively free from new injuries. Ongoing injury situations are excluded from this list. There are several Cleveland players who are out or questionable this evening, but we'll sort that situation out in the value section.
Josh Richardson, DAL (COVID-19 Protocol) OUT
Dorian Finney-Smith, DAL (COVID-19 Protocol) OUT
Richardson was just starting to feel his groove with the Mavericks before this setback. Tim Hardaway ($5,500) will undoubtedly see an uptick in playing time, and Trey Burke ($4,100) will likely be well enough to make a start at the two.
ELITE PLAYERS
Luka Doncic ($11,600) looks like the obvious add against the Magic, who are on the tail-end of a back-to-back. Although riddled with COVID absences, The Mavericks will remain in good hands with Luka, and he's a great candidate to break value. Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,200) is another story, as he's in what could be a blowout game against the Cavs. Giannis disappears when the Bucks have a considerable lead after three quarters, so he isn't my favorite play here. The 10k-plus plays round out with two Wizards players on a back-to-back in Russell Westbrook ($10,300) and Bradley Beal ($10,100). I like the defensive matchup against Miami, but I would never stack a back-to-back team. I think there's merit to going with one of them, and I would probably lean to Beal because a rest day is always possible for Westbrook in a back-to-back.
The top tier fills out with two worthwhile options in Trae Young ($9,400) and Andre Drummond ($9,200). Drummond is the most expensive center on the slate, but he'll face the Bucks. Spending for Drummond is less appealing than a play for Young against the Hornets, whose defense allows 20 points and nine rebounds against opposing point guards on average.
Also consider: Domantas Sabonis, IND ($8,800) vs. PHO, Damian Lillard, POR ($9,700) @ SAC
EXPECTED CHALK
Cole Anthony, ORL ($4,800) @ DAL
Anthony moves out of the value section into true chalk territory against the Mavericks. The rookie will now contend with first units in every game, and one has to temper their expectations for him as he takes over at point guard, but the salary for Anthony is absurdly low right now, and I don't see many scenarios where he can be faded if you choose to field three elites. You can avoid him for uniqueness if your lineup is more balanced, but I won't move away from an Anthony endorsement until he eclipses $6,000.
Jimmy Butler, MIA ($8,100) @ WAS
Butler is probably hopping mad after the two-point loss to the Celtics, where he hit 5.9x value with 26 points and eight rebounds. With the Wizards on a back-to-back, the Heat are in an excellent spot to rattle off a win, and Butler will be in the middle of it all with a usage rate that hovers around 30 percent.
Gordon Hayward, CHA ($8,000) vs. ATL
Even though the Hornets are on a back-to-back, they are playing at home, and Hayward's run of games can't be ignored. Over the last four contests, Hayward's averaged 27 points, seven rebounds, 3.3 assists and two steals per game and has beat his salary value in three of those games. Furthermore, he's already put up monster games in the second game of a back-to-back twice, so the numbers tell us he's immune to the typical regression you might expect.
John Collins, ATL ($6,800) @ CHA
I do it at my own peril, but I'm endorsing a frontcourt stack of Collins and Clint Capela ($6,500) today because I believe the advantage is too good to pass up. Charlotte has given up double-double averages to power forwards AND centers so far this season. Add fatigue from a back-to-back to the equation, and you have a very attractive spot for both players.
VALUE PLAYS
As previously stated, I'm using Cole Anthony and Tim Hardaway as value spots in a lot of lineups, but here are four more individuals worth considering today.
Buddy Hield, SAC ($5,200) vs. POR
It's essential not to get too cute when spending down on FanDuel. Gone are the days when our lowest total is dropped, so every dollar counts. Hield possesses the kind of stable reliability that we need for cash games, but his popularity isn't off the charts, either. He's good in any format, and although he faces a superb defender in Robert Covington today, the defensive pedigree of the newly-minted Trail Blazer hasn't matched with the numbers yet. Portland is currently one of the worst defenders against shooting guards and small forwards, and Hield logs time at both positions. Against shooting guards, Portland's allowing a double-double (30.6 points, 12.3 rebounds) on average.
Tyrese Haliburton, SAC ($5,400) vs. POR
The Kings won't take any chances with star De'Aaron Fox, and even though he's off the injury report, they've placed enough faith in the rookie to spell Fox when needed. Even with Fox on the court, Haliburton has managed to find a way into the rotation at both backcourt positions. We've already touched on Portland's defensive difficulties, and I freely admit that Hield might be the better value at $5,200, but I still like Haliburton as a less-popular option. We're banking on less run from Fox in this spot, so there's a bit of variance involved.
Bobby Portis, MIL ($5,100) vs. CLE
I'm targeting Portis in anticipation of a blowout versus the Cavaliers. He'll find his way into the lineup as a placeholder for Giannis and Brook Lopez. Portis is more likely to slide in when Drummond is relieved, and there's less of a size mismatch in the paint. This play is all about upside, and so far, he's alternated between explosions and regressions. He had a lukewarm game in the loss to Utah, and I expect he'll bounce back against the weaker opponent.
Damyean Dotson, CLE ($3,800) @ MIL
Collin Sexton (ankle) is listed as a GTD tonight, and Darius Garland is out. Dotson performed admirably as a starter against the Grizzlies, and if Sexton is out, he's a lock to start once again. Cleveland is riddled with many absences, and I have a hard time seeing how Dotson doesn't see 30 minutes. Cedi Osman ($5,400) is also one of the few healthy options they have, so he may be worth going to as well.
Also consider: Rudy Gay SAS ($4.600) @ MIN
