This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
I've been covering the Denver-Los Angeles series exclusively, so it's nice to have a little switch-up and preview Game 5 of Boston-Miami. Unfortunately, this could be the series finale, but we'll go over that more later. Let's go ahead and get into it!
Slate Overview
BOS vs MIA: This is the only game on the slate, with Boston entering this matchup as a 2.5-point favorite. The spread has strangely looked similar throughout most of the series, with Miami covering in all but one game.
The total currently sits at 212.5. This is a lot higher than earlier in the series, with plenty of points being scored in the final minutes of the last few games. In fact, three out of four overs have cashed in this series thus far.
In terms of the series, the Heat are up 3-1. A victory here would send them to the NBA Finals, while the Celtics would need three-straight victories to get there.
Positional Breakdown
MVP (2x): There are only two options for this slot. The guy who will be used the most is Jayson Tatum, and rightfully so. He's accumulated at least 52 FanDuel points in four of his last five games, averaging 55 fantasy points. That's obviously the best production of any player in this series and he's going to be difficult to fade with his team needing a win.
STAR (1.5x): Adebayo is also a decent option at MVP, but he fits better here. The big man for Miami is one of the NBA's biggest breakouts, scoring at least 44 FD points in eight of his last 10 contests. These are easily the two best options for the big multiplier spots, but there are plenty of great options available for the PRO and UTIL spaces.
PRO (1.2x): We're likely going to use Tatum at the MVP slot and Bam at STAR, so that leaves us with a lot of choices here. The guys worth considering include Kemba Walker, Goran Dragic, Jimmy Butler and Jaylen Brown. They represent the four best options out there and you'll probably be able to fit only one of them into your build. The best of the bunch is Dragic. The Miami point guard has hit the hot tub time machine in Orlando, averaging over 34 FD points per game over his last 15 outings. The other guys carry similar averages, but Dragic's floor is unmatched.
UTIL: Walker, Butler and Brown are all good options here, but there's also some value guys worth considering. They include Jae Crowder, Duncan Robinson, Tyler Herro, Marcus Smart, Daniel Theis and Gordon Hayward. That makes up pretty much everyone who's available and they're all good plays in different circumstances. My favorite here is Crowder, and I'll discuss that more later on.
Injury Situations to Monitor
NOTE: Injury reporting is especially fluid in the NBA, where the status of multiple players can change during the course of a day. Although the following serves as a foundation for the latest injury report as of the time the article is written (usually late morning Eastern time), check back throughout the course of the day with RotoWire for the latest news regarding the status of all players on that night's slate.
Gabe Vincent, MIA (knee)- QUESTIONABLE
Romeo Langford, BOS (wrist)- OUT
Chris Silva, MIA (pelvis)- OUT
Elite Players
Jayson Tatum remains the top option on the board and it's easy to see why when you see his recent averages. Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler are just behind, but Butler hasn't really been living up to his salary. Jaylen Brown, Goran Dragic and Kemba Walker closely follow and it's honestly a much more even slate than the Denver-Los Angeles series. That makes lineup building much more complicated, but there are many ways to approach it.
Expected Chalk
Jayson Tatum, BOS ($16,000)
The most-used player is going to be Tatum once again. It's easy to understand why with his production and it's hard to fade him considering he's playing a must-win game. That will put him in every lineup and rightfully so.
Tyler Herro, MIA ($11,000)
Herro was spectacular in Game 4 as he provided 37 points, six rebounds and three assists in a career performance, making him one of the best per-dollar plays in recent memory. DFS players have short memories and it's going to put the rookie in pretty much every lineup on this slate. It's not like it was a fluky performance either, as Herro scored at least 29 FD points in five straight while averaging 37. That already made him a solid value and now he's going to be the free square in everyone's lineup. With all that said, it might be savvy to fade the chalk and go elsewhere to cash in a GPP.
Key Values
Jae Crowder, MIA ($9,500)
It would be easy to write up Herro in this spot, but everyone knows he's an excellent value. Crowder, on the other hand, is a great value and he'll be far less used. A 1-for-9 performance in Game 4 is going to turn a lot of DFS players off, and that's the time we want to jump on. Before that dud, Jae actually scored at least 28 FD points in seven straight with over 30 fantasy points per game during that span. Most importantly, he's averaging about 35 minutes a game over that stretch and being under $10,000 just looks too low.
Andre Iguodala, MIA ($6,500)
Iguodala has established himself as a "playoff performer" and it's clear Miami wants to make him a huge part of this rotation. He played 27 minutes in that critical Game 4 and counted 16.4 FD points. That's not a crazy performance by any means, but it's impressive despite making only one shot. If Iguodala plays 25-plus minutes again at this price, he could easily reach 20 FD points and that would make him an incredible value at a near-minumum salary.
Daniel Theis, BOS ($8,000)
There's not a whole lot of value on Boston, but Theis is certainly the guy. While none of the lines will jump off the page, he just continues to produce. That's evident when you see Theis has produced at least 16 FanDuel points in 13 straight games, averaging 24 fantasy points over that span. Any double-double threat who regularly plays 30 minutes is hard to fade in this salary range and it looks like he could be playing 35-40 minutes tonight.
