This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
This might be one of the more difficult betting slates of the entire year. After all, we are just one day away from the NBA Trade Deadline. While we haven't gotten any news of impending deals yet, I wouldn't be surprised at all if a big move ultimately changes the landscape of the 11-game Wednesday slate. As of this writing, all of these bets are still in play, but now probably more than ever is a great time to remind readers to check if any sort of crazy movement has happened between the time of this writing and closer to tipoff. A dramatic pull one way or another has seemingly been a dead giveaway something is not what we expected.
Points Props
Most of the games I'm looking to target shouldn't be impacted by the trade deadline, but it's worth pointing out the Celtics have been linked to just about any player with a pulse over these last two-plus weeks. No trade that occurs Wednesday night should really impact starters, so that's why I'm comfortable taking over 9.5 points for Daniel Theis (-107). Brook Lopez has been better defensively over the last two months, but the Bucks still have significant lapses when it comes to perimeter big men. No one will mistake Theis for the next Dirk Nowitzki, but I do think the 28-year-old can take advantage of the Bucks' defense to get some quality shots, and he's generally good for some put-back buckets as well.
Sticking in the same game, I'm also taking the over when it comes to Jaylen Brown's 22.5-point total (-134). I mentioned it in the Handicapping the NBA: Wednesday edition so I'll refrain from spending too much time on the dynamic player. Just know, I think the Celtics will come to play in this one.
The return of Karl Anthony-Towns has made the T-Wolves' defense marginally less miserable, especially against opposing centers, so I definitely like the idea of targeting under 31.5 PRA for Kristaps Porzingis (-113). Luka Doncic's recent brilliance has had a negative corollary effect on Porzingis considering the 7-foot-3 behemoth has scored 12 or fewer points in each of the last three games. Even if he does reach his season average in points (19.7), the Timberwolves actually do a decent job of eliminating rebound opportunities for opposing centers which makes the PRA a more enticing figure than targeting a points under.
Isaac Okoro has scored nine or fewer points in seven of the last nine games, boasts a middling 7.9 points-per-game average, and faces a Bulls defense that just sneaks in under the top-10 fewest points allowed to small forwards. Yes, I'll gladly take under 8.5 points for Okoro (-120) whenever it's presented.
Rebounds/Assists
There was a surprising number of rebound props that I thought were worth targeting.
It's a mighty high figure, but I think I'm comfortable with over 13.5 rebounds for Jonas Valanciunas (-117). The Thunder allow the most rebounds to power forwards in the entire league, which Valanciunas obviously is not, but I think his role perfectly coincides with the Thunder's struggles on the glass. Maybe actual power forward Kyle Anderson soaks up a few of those opportunities, but the burly center has at least 12 rebounds in nine of the last 10 games so I hardly doubt he'll somehow see fewer opportunities against a team that struggles to protect the glass.
Then there's a bunch of figures that are just inexplicably high for their odds. Trae Young just played the Kings 13 days ago, tallied one rebound in that contest, registered four or more rebounds just four times in the month of March, and yet somehow the over/under currently sits at 3.5. The Kings also do a pretty good job limiting opposing point guards on the glass, probably because they are a sieve when it comes to the frontcourt (most rebounds allowed per game to opposing centers in the entire NBA). The under gives you +102 which feels like a steal given the situation.
Sticking in the same game, just a different team, I really don't understand why Tyrese Haliburton's over/under rebound figure set at 3.5 rebounds (under is +130). He's only averaging 3.4 rebounds on the season and has gone over this figure just twice since returning from a four-game injury-related absence in early March. Maybe he goes over the market, but considering the odds and how good the Hawks are at stopping offensive rebounds, it's hard to ignore.
Then there's DeMar DeRozan, who DraftKings purposely set at over/under 6.5 rebounds (under -152) just to tempt me into making a bad decision. The Clippers really are strong on the glass but, more importantly, DeRozan is averaging just 4.5 rebounds per game on the season, and a paltry 3.1 in the month of March. I really can't fathom a way in which DeRozan goes over this figure, but these types of absurd dunks have been hitting more as the season has progressed, so be warned.
Bests Bets
- Jaylen Brown over 22.5 points (-134)
- Tyrese Haliburton under 3.5 rebounds (+130)
- DeMar DeRozan under 6.5 rebounds (-152)
