This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
We were overdue for a bit of a letdown after such a strong previous week as all four of the best bets cratered thanks in large part to Collin Sexton breathing literal fire against the Nets. Saturday's slate is a bit more mundane with just seven games expected to take place and as of this writing, just five have prop bets set due to various injuries. As a result, I won't try to be as picky when discussing a handful of bets.
Points Props
We'll start right away with what feels like a lock in regards to the over for Steven Adams' 10.5 points (-125). The Timberwolves allow the most points to centers by a considerable margin, but perhaps more importantly Adams did score double-digit points for seven consecutive games before running into a tough gauntlet against the Lakers and Jazz, respectively. You could just skip this step and go right to taking Adams to hit a double-double (+150) since the big man is so adept at corralling rebounds, but Minnesota has allowed a starting center to get double-digit rebounds just three times this year so it's admittedly more of a long shot.
Look, we've had a bad stretch when it comes to betting on players hitting 3-pointers, but I'm willing to go back to the well when considering the over on Kentavious Caldwell-Pope's 9.5 points (-110). On the very slim chance LeBron James (ankle) and Anthony Davis (ankle) do not play you've essentially guaranteed something like a lock, but I still think with the way the Bulls play defense (fifth-most 3-point attempts given up to opposing SGs) KCP should be firing on all cylinders. He's also gone over that mark in four of the last five games which makes me feel even more confident in the over.
Finally, sticking in the same game I'm also interested in taking over 15.5 points (-125) for forward Lauri Markkanen. Yes, Davis is going to present a difficult matchup for the young forward and yes, Zach LaVine has been insanely dominant as of late, but I still think Markkanen is too involved in the offense not to hit this low of a bar. The 23-year-old is averaging 13.3 shots per game and has crossed the 15.5-point threshold in each of his last four games since returning from a COVID-19-related absence.
Rebounds/Assists
I truthfully don't know why DraftKings decided to list Zach LaVine's o/u 4.5 assists, but consider the over (-139) your parlay builder. In six of LaVine's last seven games, the 25-year-old has tallied six or more assists and with the Lakers likely applying a greater emphasis on stopping the guard from attacking the paint like he last time around in their matchup earlier this month (38 points on 15 attempts from inside the arc), I think there will be opportunities for a plethora of knock-down shots. Putting the over with any of the heavy favorites to win (I'm personally looking at the 76ers over the Pistons) should give you plus money without needing to sweat much.
We had this with Josh Okogie on Wednesday so just be mindful if the number gets bet down significantly lower, but at the moment I think the odds on Donovan Mitchell getting more than 4.5 rebounds (+105) feel relatively worth the gamble. The Warriors allow the sixth-most rebounds to SGs, Mitchell has back-to-back games with seven boards and the expected extreme pace all sorta line up as a decent bet for plus money. I'd much rather take the listed parlay below if you're interested in that sort of thing, but it's an intriguing figure regardless.
Best Bets
- Lauri Markkanen over 15.5 points (-125)
- Steven Adams over 10.5 points (-125)
- Zach LaVine over 4.5 assists/76ers win (+136)
