This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
DraftKings has its NBA futures bets up, and every year one of my favorite things to look at are the team over/under wins lines.
With the 2020-21 season being 72 games instead of 82 and with the 2019-20 season getting cut short, sportsbooks have to make these winning percentage bets, rather than straight wins bets, so that the bets can pay out even if a team or team(s) can't play 72 games. It also makes it easier to compare what a team did last year with what we think a team will do this year.
Nick Whalen and I will be doing a two-part podcast this week in which we will go into detail on all of our over/under picks. For now, I will give out my 10 Best Bets of the 28 teams currently on the board — the Heat and Rockets' lines are not posted yet, for what it's worth.
Eastern Conference
Chicago Bulls: Under 41.5 Win%
Last year, the Bulls had a 33.8 Win%, so the book is expecting significant improvement. Billy Donovan is a modest coaching upgrade over Jim Boylen, in that he should get along better with the players, but he's not some tactical genius who is going to lift this team up by himself. Garrett Temple is a fine addition to the bench and the hope is that Otto Porter will be healthier this year. There is also a chance that any of Wendell Carter, Lauri Markkanen or Coby White takes a significant step forward developmentally.
Patrick Williams, like almost all first-year players with his level of rawness, will be a negative player when he is on the court as a rookie. The big reason why I think this goes under is the new front office. Arturas Karnisovas will be given at least a year or two to try to build this team in the draft, and that means getting another high pick in what figures to be a loaded 2021 draft. There won't be pressure for this team to chase the play-in game, at least not in Karnisovas' first year.
The only teams in the East that are clearly worse are the Knicks, Cavaliers and Pistons. On paper, the Bulls are similarly talented to Hornets, whose Win% line is 36.5 and whose owner will want them to chase the play-in game. Adding to the appeal of this under is that the Nets and Hawks are going to be significantly better and the Wizards could be as well, so there could be nine legitimate playoff-caliber rosters in the conference, whereas last year there was a steep drop off after the top six.
Indiana Pacers: Over 54.5 Win%
This just seems like a bad line, which appears to be borne out by the fact that the over is -120. Last year the Pacers had a 61.6 Win%, and almost everyone is coming back except Nate McMillan, who may have been holding them back offensively. Even if we just look at their 56.2 expected Win% from last year, the book is projecting them to be worse.
New coach Nate Bjorkgren learned under the best coach in the league, Nick Nurse, so there's a chance he helps this team more than people are expecting. Other than bad injury luck, the one way this could go poorly is if Victor Oladipo is as bad as he was in the bubble and continues to take the shots he was taking in the bubble. I'm not expecting him to be back to his old self, but I think he will inevitably accept the role that he is given, as being a shell of his former self on the court and being a malcontent gunner would really hurt him in free agency.
New York Knicks: Under 31.5 Win%
From a functionality standpoint, this is the worst roster in the league. None of the high-usage options can shoot, so their half-court offense is going to be disastrous. Mitchell Robinson hasn't proven that he's an impactful enough defender to lift up a unit that's this bad. Additionally, Tom Thibodeau didn't deserve this job, but he got this job because he's a CAA guy and former CAA basketball co-head Leon Rose now runs the team.
That's how the Knicks do things. They seem to at least be smart enough to know that they need another high pick, which is why they didn't do anything monumentally stupid in free agency, like chasing Gordon Hayward. They are my pick to have the worst record in the league, even though the Cavs (30.5) have the lowest Win% line on the board.
Philadelphia 76ers: Over 59.5 Win%
They had arguably the best offseason in the conference but it's not being reflected in this line. The Ben Simmons-Seth Curry-Danny Green-Tobias Harris-Joel Embiid unit could be the best five-man unit in the league. I don't think Brett Brown is a bad coach, but it was time for a new voice, and they couldn't have done much better than Doc Rivers. Their bench isn't great, but at least the non-centers can all shoot a little.
Last year's 58.9 Win% was considered a disaster, but they upgraded at coach and the pieces actually fit again, yet the book is barely giving them a bump. An injury to Embiid would probably sink this bet, but a healthy, motivated Embiid would help them cruise to the over.
Toronto Raptors: Over 57.5 Win%
I know they lost Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol, but this is too much disrespect for Nick Nurse and Masai Ujiri coming off a 73.6 Win%. This roster probably won't do much in the postseason, but this is the modern-day Spurs from a reliability-in-the-regular-season standpoint. They still have the pieces and scheme for this to be a top-five defense in the regular season without Ibaka and Gasol, and Aron Baynes, Chris Boucher and Alex Len are going to be adequate replacements for those minutes.
While they don't have realistic title aspirations, the Raptors need to prove to Giannis Antetokounmpo that this is still a destination that would be ready to win championships if he joined up, so they will not be satisfied noticeable taking a big step back this year. The whole of this roster will always be greater than the sum of its parts as long as Nurse and Ujiri are running things, so bet against them at your own expense.
Western Conference
Dallas Mavericks: Over 57.5 Win%
I'm a little surprised this over is only at -113. Luka Doncic has ascended into being an annual MVP candidate, and he might still be getting better. I'd like this over even if Kristaps Porzingis were going to miss the whole season — Maxi Kleber is one of the most underrated players in the league and does a nice job filling in for Porzingis when necessary. Josh Richardson should help this defensive unit without taking much off the table offensively, as he won't be overstretched as a ball-handler/creator like he was in Philadelphia. Last year this team had an expected Win% of 65.3, and I just don't see how they'd fall to 57.5 without a significant injury to Doncic.
Los Angeles Lakers: Over 66.5 Win%
Last year the Lakers had an expected Win% of 67.6 and they are going to be a better regular-season team this year. The beauty of this roster is that with the addition of Dennis Schroder, this offense will actually have a chance when LeBron James is off the court. Schroder/Montrezl Harrell pick-and-rolls should generate excellent second-unit offense compared to anything the Lakers were getting last year in the regular season from Rajon Rondo.
Wesley Matthews and Marc Gasol were excellent additions who should fit seamlessly into what the Lakers want to do. In Year 2 of the LeBron/Anthony Davis pairing, things should run even smoother than in Year 1. Davis is my pick to deserve the MVP, even if Doncic is my pick to win, and him just being on the court equates to a top-five defense. Yes, LeBron, and even AD to some extent, will take some games off to stay fresh, but not enough games for it to be a concern with regard to this line.
Memphis Grizzlies: Under 40.5 Win%
People seem to be betting this over (-118) just because the line is so much lower than the 46.6 Win% the Grizzlies had a year ago. I love the under, however, as they go from Jae Crowder to the chronically injured Justise Winslow, while Jaren Jackson (knee) is already out indefinitely. When Jackson is off the court, this offense is going to be really bogged down due to a lack of spacing.
Last year the Grizzlies were able to sneak up on people, but now Ja Morant and the rest of this crew will be taken seriously. The book is out on Morant — you go under on every pick-n-roll and make him shoot. I like this roster long term quite a bit, but they overachieved last year and I think they are in store for some natural regression this year. The Rockets and Thunder will be worse than a year ago, but the Warriors, Timberwolves, Suns and Trail Blazers will all be significantly better, so there will be fewer middling teams out West to beat up on.
Oklahoma City Thunder: Under 34.5 Win%
This under is already -130, so you might not want to bet it on DK. But I'm confident it will go under, nonetheless. Here are some downgrades this roster faces:
Chris Paul to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to Hamidou Diallo
Danilo Gallinari to Darius Bazley
Even if we say Steven Adams to Al Horford and Dennis Schroder to George Hill are lateral moves, almost all of the on-ball creation gets a massive downgrade from a year ago. This team was extremely effective last year in clutch situations, but this year they could be one of the worst teams in the league in clutch situations.
Horford and Hill will be traded for future assets if at all possible this year, so they might not even be on the team all season, and not every veteran has the same will and determination to be good in a bad situation that Paul admirably displayed last season. Sam Presti has carte blanche to do what's best for this team, and what's best is for them to make a run at getting as high a pick as possible in the 2021 draft.
Portland Trail Blazers: Over 56.5 Win%
I loved the under on the Blazers last year because they got Hassan "The Cooler" Whiteside, and I love the over this year because they go from Whiteside to a healthy Jusuf Nurkic. They will also have an enviable stable of switchable wings in Robert Covington, Derrick Jones Jr. and Gary Trent. Just having Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum guarantees a good offense, but they might finally have a defense that is nearly as good as the offense. If Zach Collins gives them something once he's healthy, great, but last year he was supposed to be the starting power forward and this year he's just a depth big. If I were picking a team to come out of nowhere and finish with a top-two record in the conference, the Blazers would be my pick.
