This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Even with a full 12-game slate, there isn't much obvious low-priced value available for Friday night, making it all the more important to track late-breaking news and potential injury situations. With that in mind, I'll mostly be recommending high-priced standouts, as it's still entirely unclear where the bargains will come from.
Having said that, let's take a look at some of the unsettled injury situations (as of Friday morning) that could lead to the value we're seeking:
Monta Ellis (knee) is considered questionable for Friday's game against the Nets, with a potential absence likely beneficial for all of Paul George ($9,400), C.J. Miles ($5,300), George Hill ($5,200) and Rodney Stuckey ($4,500). I think I would like Stuckey or Hill out of that bunch, but we'll have to wait on the starting lineup to be sure.
With Kevin Martin (wrist) questionable for Friday's excellent matchup against the Kings, there are a bunch of Timberwolves in line to potentially benefit from increased usage and/or minutes. Zach LaVine ($5,700) would be the most obvious beneficiary, but Ricky Rubio ($7,200) and Andrew Wiggins ($6,700) are already solid choices, even if Martin plays. Following Wednesday's performance of 57 DraftKings points, Rubio is the one to target.
If Tony Allen (knee) misses another game, Courtney Lee ($4,200) and Jeff Green ($5,100) would both get boosts for a contest in Dallas, though I'm hoping enough value will open up elsewhere so that I can just avoid this situation. Green and Lee do a whole lot of standing around on offense.
With Devin Harris (ankle) ruled out and Chandler Parsons (knee) considered questionable, J.J. Barea ($3,400) may have a shot to serve as the Mavs' sixth man in Friday's game against Memphis. This is one of our best shots at low-end value, as Barea could be in line for around 25 minutes, which would make him a solid bet to reach 20 fantasy points.
Even after getting Randy Foye'd on Tuesday, Jameer Nelson ($4,900) should still offer excellent upside for his price, assuming Emmanuel Mudiay (ankle) is confirmed to miss another game. If that happens, Nelson would still be a better option than either Foye or Garry Harris ($4,200), though Will Barton ($6,200) might be the best play in cash games.
Lastly, I really like Utah's Alec Burks ($5,000 vs. DEN) and Milwaukee's Michael Carter-Williams ($5,900 at GSW), but we'll need confirmation that both are in the starting lineup. I actually think Burks would be the stronger play, even though MCW outproduced his price tag in each of Milwaukee's last three games. There's a pretty good chance the Dubs will ruthlessly massacre the Bucks in Friday's whole-team revenge game.
Anyway, here are some of my favorite plays for the upcoming weekend, with a special emphasis on Friday's games:
Point Guard
Isaiah Thomas, BOS (Fri. vs. ATL), $7,700
With his minutes now trending into the mid-to-high 30s, Thomas offers elite upside for his price range, making him kind of like a more consistent Reggie Jackson. He actually lit Jackson's Pistons up for 51.75 fantasy points (on 38 real-life points) Wednesday night, even though few teams have done a better job defending point guards this season. The Hawks have been much more vulnerable in that regard, but this selection is really about Thomas' combination of price and ceiling, which makes him an appealing tournament option even in tough matchups. He has also been shockingly consistent, topping 33 fantasy points in nine of his last 10 games.
Other options: Stephen Curry, GS (Fri. vs. MIL), $10,700; Reggie Jackson, DET (Fri. at CHI), $7,500; Deron Williams, DAL (Fri. vs. MEM), $6,400
Shooting Guard
Tyreke Evans, NO (Fri. at PHO, Sun. at DEN), $7,300
Despite his own assertion that he still isn't back to full strength, Evans has wasted no time returning to his usual level of production. There have admittedly been a few duds in some difficult matchups, but he also has at least 37 fantasy points in five of his eight games so far. There's also no concern whatsoever regarding playing time, as Evans logged 34-38 minutes in each of his last four games. With the Suns ranking third in pace (102.0) and 19th in defensive efficiency (103.9), Evans clearly has a favorable matchup Friday night, even though Brandon Knight and Eric Bledsoe both enjoy solid reputations for their on-ball defense. No team has allowed more DK points to point guards this season, and only seven teams have surrendered more points to shooting guards. I also love Eric Bledsoe from the other side of this game, not to mention Evans' Sunday matchup with the Nuggets
Other options: Eric Bledsoe, PHO (Fri. vs. NO, Sun. vs. MIL), $8,400; Avery Bradley, BOS (Fr. vs. ATL), $5,800; Alec Burks, UTA (Fri. vs. DEN), $5,000
Small Forward
Kawhi Leonard, SA (Fri. vs. LAC), $8,600
Carmelo Anthony is the more obvious choice, drawing an ideal matchup against Philadelphia after putting up at least 50 fantasy points in each of his last three games. While I can't deny that Melo is a strong option, Leonard probably has a higher ceiling, not to mention lower ownership. Even with Chris Paul not quite playing to his usual standards, it's quite evident that the Clippers are best attacked on the wing; away from Paul, Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan. The 76ers, on the other hand, can be easily defeated in a variety of ways, and I wouldn't bank on Melo getting his usual minutes in the soft first game of a back-to-back.
Other options: Carmelo Anthony, NY (Fri. at PHI, Sat. vs. CHI), $8,300; Omri Casspi, SAC (at MIN), $5,900
Power Forward
DeMarcus Cousins, SAC (Fri. at MIN, Sun. at TOR), $10,200
With minimal value available at power forward on Friday's slate, paying up for Cousins or Anthony Davis becomes all the more attractive. Davis does have the better matchup against a fast-paced Phoenix team that's still figuring out its big-man rotation, but I don't think there's much of a gap between him and DMC, which makes it smart to go with the less popular option. Not to say that I'll be completely ignoring Davis, but anyone with serious NBA DFS experience is aware of how often A.D. completely ruins lineups. With Tyreke Evans, Jrue Holiday, Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson somehow all healthy at the same time (for at least a few more days), I'm worried about A.D.'s usage on the offensive end. He's still a solid option due to the lack of alternatives, but Cousins has the better floor-ceiling combo, despite his disappointing results over the past two weeks.
Other options: Anthony Davis, NO (Fri. at PHO, Sat. vs. MIL), $10,500; Draymond Green, GS (Fri. vs. MIL), $8,800; Dirk Nowitzki, DAL (Fri. vs. MEM), $6,500
Center
Al Horford, ATL (Fri. at BOS, Sun. at ORL) $6,600
As has often been the case this season, there's more obvious value at center than at any other position, though we'll likely have to settle for mid-priced value Friday night. Horford hasn't put up many strong outings of late, but his season-long average of 33.5 fantasy points per game is highly appealing at this price. He also gets a favorable matchup, as the Celtics play at a fast pace and do an excellent job of defending guards. Boston has improved its defense against big men this season, but it's still a relative weakness. Pau Gasol and Nikola Vucevic are also first-rate plays at center.
Other options: Pau Gasol, CHI (Fri. vs. DET, Sat. at NY), $7,600; Nikola Vucevic, ORL (Fri. vs. POR, Sun. vs. ATL), $6,800; Tim Duncan, SA (Fri. vs. LAC), $5,600
