This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Wednesday's slate presents a 10-game offering. Let's get right to it!
SLATE OVERVIEW
PHI (-8) vs. BKN, O/U: 221
BOS (-10) vs. DET, O/U: 217.5
MIA (-5) vs. SA, O/U: 222.5
OKC (-1.5) vs. TOR, O/U: 213
CHI (-4.5) vs. WAS, O/U: 229
IND (-2.5) @ MON, O/U: 218.5
DEN (-11) vs. CHA, O/U: 210
HOU (-8) vs. POR, O/U: 239
DAL (-4) @ SAC, O/U: 226.5
LAL (-9.5) vs. ORL, O/U: 212.5
POR/HOU is the crown jewel of the slate in terms of pace. I neglected to give any detail on several players in this game that I like, especially on the Portland side. I'm not a fan of Whiteside against Capela, but aside from that I think starters on both sides of the ball are viable. I also think the WAS/CHI game has a lot of value to offer, and I'd peruse those starting lineups as well.
INJURY SITUATIONS TO MONITOR
Anthony Davis (back) QUESTIONABLE
If I were to make a guess, I'd assume Davis to be out tonight, considering he's yet to put in any significant pre-game warmups or sprints. If he misses, Kyle Kuzma ($5,800) will be ready to take his place.
Domantas Sabonis (knee) QUESTIONABLE
The team seems to think Sabonis will be fine to play, but he still has a questionable designation heading into Wednesday's game. A pivot to Myles Turner ($6,500) would be prudent here, and T.J. Warren ($5,800) is likely to start in Sabonis' place if he misses.
Kristaps Porzingis (knee) QUESTIONABLE
If he returns tonight, he'll probably be on a minute restriction, so it's probably best to fade him. His return would also compromise any reasonable pivots, but if he is out altogether, give a boost to all the starters, and a slight nod to Dwight Powell ($5,300)
Jamal Murray (back) QUESTIONABLE
Paul Millsap (knee) OUT
Gary Harris (groin) QUESTIONABLE
The only sure pivot here is Jerami Grant ($5,000) for Millsap, but everything else is a toss-up right now. Both Murray and Harris could return and I think the odds are ion Murray's favor. If they can't make it, give a boost to all the starters, especially Will Barton ($7,000), and Monte Morris ($3,600) would see more time in a Murray absence.
ELITE PLAYS
James Harden ($12,400) and Luka Doncic ($12,100) are facing back-to-backs, and though I doubt either team will rest their stars, it's always a possibility to consider. Assuming both players take the floor, a deeper analysis reveals that Doncic's numbers take a bigger hit than Harden's on the tail-end of a back-to-back. In fact, in a few cases, Harden's numbers actually increase in this scenario. If you plan on using either player, I'd take Harden over Doncic tonight.
Nikola Jokic, DEN ($10,100) vs. CHA
Although a slate this large will provide you with 20 starting centers, one has to give some thought to Jokic against the Hornets' porous interior. He's averaging over 50 DKFP per game over his last five games, which puts his floor squarely at 5x value and just under $200 per point. In short, we need more than 50 to justify this play, and a recent 72 DKFP game indicates that his ceiling is still intact.
Russell Westbrook, HOU ($9,600) vs. POR
Westbrook will face Portland after a day off, and a play for Russ is a good idea if you believe in past history. He tore up the Blazers for 68.8 DKFP in their last meeting, and he's a great way to get a piece of this game if you think Harden is too expensive.
LeBron James, LAL ($10,400) vs. ORL
With or without Davis, the potential to crush 5x value is definitely there at this price for King James. He notched a 59 DKFP payday against the Magic when he last faced them, and there's cause to believe in a bigger number if there's a minute restriction on Aaron Gordon.
Ben Simmons, PHI ($8,700) vs. BKN
Simmons' logged only 29 minutes in his last game against the Nets, which resulted in a below-average night. The game was a blowout and his services weren't needed down the stretch, so the only question with Simmons is whether or not you think the Nets are a better team than they were in mid-December. Another element is Embiid's absence, which could have positive (points) and negative (assists) effects on Simmons' line. The price is a little too good to pass up, but I'll keep my exposure a bit lower.
Jimmy Butler, MIA ($8,600) vs. SA
This could be an interesting spot for Butler. The Spurs just gave up almost 45 DKFP to Dillon Brooks in their last game, and I think that Butler is a far more explosive player than Brooks. Butler is coming off a few days of rest, and I'm making a play here if I believe in a 50 DKFP ceiling, which is what he did against the Knicks in his most recent game.
EXPECTED CHALK AND OTHER TARGETS
Pascal Siakam, TOR ($7,800) @ OKC
Siakam's minute restriction didn't materialize upon his return, as he shook off the rust across 30 full minutes. With a few days off, he should be in line for his usual allotment against the Thunder. I can envision stacking Siakam with an elite or making him part of a core in the 7-8k range if you want to field a roster devoid of elites.
Tobias Harris, PHI ($6,900) vs. BKN
Harris leads the team with a 23.3 percent usage rate, and is delivering right at 5x value with a smattering of numbers in the mid-30 DKFP range. I admit I've been looking for a big game for Harris' absence and it just hasn't happened yet. His shooting is partly to blame, as he's only converted 41 percent of his shots over the past three games. That's about seven percentage points lower than his season average. I'm going to bank on improvement in that number tonight, with a value-beating DKFP number to follow.
Malcolm Brogdon, IND ($6,700) @ MIN
Brogdon came back with a flurry, putting up 42 DKFP in a win over Philly two days ago. He faces a much weaker opponent in the Timberwolves tonight, and while we don't have any recent history here, we do know that Brogdon's scoring an average of five extra DKFP when he plays on the road, and his 34 minutes of court time implies that his injury concern is a thing of the past.
VALUE PLAYS
Davis Bertans, WAS ($5,500) @ CHI
It's great to have Bertans back, and there's more than one reason to play him tonight. Rumors are swirling about Bertans as we near the trade deadline, and suitors would like to know that his injury issues are behind him. Showcasing him is a great way to inform those who have an interest. His minutes and totals are trending up over his first two games back, and I predict he'll eclipse 30 minutes and give us more than 30 DKFP along the way.
Daniel Gafford, CHI ($4,900) vs. WAS
Gafford's dealing with a sore ankle, but you have to like any opposing center against the Wizards. Gafford only needs 25 DKFP to beat 5x value here, and with Thomas Bryant still not 100 percent, I think this is a very exploitable spot and a good chance for the rookie to shine.
Ben McLemore, HOU ($4,000) vs. POR
This fast-paced game should give McLemore a bit of a boost. He logged a full 38 points against Memphis last night, so this could be a DFS trap to avoid, but I think they'll need someone solid to face off against Carmelo Anthony and McLemore should be that guy. I don't need a whole lot for him to be worth his price.
Keep an eye on the injury situations for more value spots, especially with Denver and Indiana.
