This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Wednesday's 10-game slate is packed with heavy hitters as well as some fast-paced matchups to whet your DFS appetite.
Speaking of heavy hitters, Tuesday's DFS action illustrated what a cruel mistress the sport could be. While guys like Domantas Sabonis led the field, all of your top-shelf guys were severely marginalized, with none of them reaching their projections. It just goes to show you that sometimes the big-dollar guys won't get you there (especially when last night's GPP winners went into the 400 DKFP range).
First, let's take a trip around the slate and hunt down any injury concerns. Dwight Howard (lower body) is already listed as 'out', and while Thomas Bryant ($3,300) will likely draw the start, I have no confidence in pivoting here. Some 'questionable' tags should clear up shortly after this article goes to print. I've provided some potential adjustments to make if any of these players are scratched:
Chris Paul (leg): PIVOT- Eric Gordon ($5,800) BOOST FOR - James Harden ($11,600)
Luka Doncic (illness) and Dennis Smith Jr. (wrist): PIVOT - J.J. Barea ($5,000), Wesley Matthews ($4,500)
Aaron Gordon (back): PIVOT: Jonathan Isaac ($3,700), BOOST FOR - Eric Fournier ($5,500)
At first glance, it's pretty apparent where many people will gravitate to on Wednesday. The Wizards-Pelicans game is posting a whopping 240 O/U and a six-point spread in favor of New Orleans. These are two fast-paced teams that played quite recently, but the Pelicans were without Anthony Davis ($11,400) in that game, so the script will be entirely different. High ownership is a deep concern for every marquee guy on the slate, but you'd be a fool not to inject some of this action into your lineups. I'll spell out my preferences in this game and exclude them from my other targets here. I favor a more Pelican-based stack, with Davis as the obvious choice, Jrue Holiday ($8,400) as a nightly chalk play and Julius Randle ($6,700), who is still at an incredibly reasonable price. For value, I think Otto Porter Jr. ($5,900), Markieff Morris ($5,100) and E'Twaun Moore ($5,000) all have a shot to exceed projections. If you are going to spend up on the Wizards side, I'm more inclined to head Bradley Beal's ($8,000) way instead of John Wall. Wall's floor and Beal's mid-range are almost identical, and the $1,100 drop in price is persuasive enough.
All of the above picks should be at the forefront of your thoughts while constructing your lineups. I think there are other ways to register a high score without this game, however. Let's get to those now. We'll be selecting three players per position accompanied by a small additional list of players to consider at each spot. When possible, the categories will include a top-shelf player, a mid-range target and a low-cost value play.
GUARDS
Jimmy Butler, PHI vs. NY ($7,800): Butler's ankle issue should be behind him after two days of rest. Although there's a minute risk of rest here, Butler is in a prime position to put up a big score here against a Knicks team that's playing a back-to-back game down the turnpike in Philly. Butler's tendency for streaky play puts him more into a GPP lineup, but the potential is there for him to be a better value than some of his higher-priced peers.
Eric Bledsoe, MIL vs. CHI ($6,900): The Bucks have been a favorite in quite a few games this season, and Bledsoe has scored in the 40 DKFP range in all of them. This game could get ugly for the Bulls, but in their last meeting, Bledsoe lit Chicago up with a 47-DKFP score in what was a 19-point victory for Milwaukee.
J.J. Barea, DAL at HOU ($5,000): Aside from potential limitations for Dennis Smith and Luka Doncic, the metric I'm most excited about is his 62 percent bump in output when he plays on two or more days of rest. Even if Doncic and Smith are out there, Barea will see significant time with the second unit. A 30-plus DKFP score at this price would be a great asset.
Other guards to consider: Devin Booker, PHO at LAC ($8,800), Jeremy Lamb, CHA vs. ATL ($6,400), Spencer Dinwiddie, BKN vs. UTA ($6,200)
FORWARDS
Those with a lot of cap space could go for Giannis ($12,000) here, as he's got the potential to meet value, even at this absurd price. I doubt I will make a play for him here tonight, however.
Khris Middleton, MIL vs. CHI ($7,500): Despite the 19-point win in their last outing, Middleton was on the court for 33 minutes and put up a whopping 53 DKFP, which is why I'm endorsing him ahead of guys like Paul George and Tobias Harris. That game log assuages any worries I have about a blowout where Middleton is concerned. I'm giving him high exposure in my cash lineups.
Danilo Gallinari, LAC vs. PHO ($6,200): Gallinari has rattled off two 30-plus DKFP games, and it appears that he's establishing a reliable floor. I think that the Clippers are full of worthwhile plays in this game, but Gallinari's price point, coupled with the recent minutes boost is enough to slot him in close to the DK median price.
Justin Holiday, CHI at MIL ($5,900): The Bulls are going nowhere fast but that hasn't kept Holiday from heaving it up at will, and there's usually a few converted threes in that barrage. Holiday put up 38 DKFP against the Bulls in their last game, and he regularly sees somewhere in the neighborhood of a 20 percent bump in games with this pace.
Other forwards to consider: Tobias Harris, LAC vs. PHO ($8,400), Otto Porter Jr. ($5,900), WAS at NO, Kent Bazemore, ATL at CHA ($4,900)
CENTERS
Joel Embiid, PHI vs. NY ($11,200): The advantages here are obvious, and he's an excellent pivot away from Davis if you're attempting to diversify. Over his last five games he's racked up an average of 56.5 DKFP and should be in line for a similar total against New York's defense, which ranks 21st against opposing centers. The Knicks are on the tail end of a back-to-back as well, so it's an exploitable spot for Embiid and the rest of the Sixers.
Jusuf Nurkic, POR vs. ORL ($6,800): I like Nurkic as a low-ownership target due to the injury tag that's attached to him right now, although he's probable to take the floor against the Magic. Nurkic's upside is accentuated by a 40 percent bump in output when he's had two days of rest. He put up 40 DKFP in a duel with Nikola Vucevic on the road, and Nurkic fares slightly better at home.
Other centers to consider: Clint Capela HOU vs. DAL ($8,200), Steven Adams, OKC vs. CLE ($6,700)
