This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Wednesday's 13-game slate represents the largest collection of games we've seen this season, and to say that it's a tad overwhelming would be an understatement. There's a lot of ground to cover, but we can start chipping away bit by bit, starting with what's happening on the injury front.
First, the highly-touted game we've all been waiting for – LeBron's return to Cleveland. I'm not overly concerned about LeBron's ownership, as percentages will be low across the board due to the plethora of options available. Do we go for the King here? That's a tough one. His stat lines have been a bit all over the place over the past five games, but the Lakers are well-rested, and the Cavs defense is soft. He's the most expensive guy on the slate, and other elites in the 10k-plus range are in better positions, but if you plan to watch this match, you may not be able to resist adding him. Actually, with Collin Sexton (hip) questionable, my favorite play in this game is Jordan Clarkson ($5,200). Even with Sexton at 100 percent, Clarkson has posted solid numbers in the 25 DKFP range. I think we'll see a slight bump here which could send him into the 30s.
Still no Steph Curry (groin) or Draymond Green (toe) for the Warriors tonight against the Thunder, so you have to consider Kevin Durant ($10,600) and Klay Thompson ($6,600) in what should be a back-and-forth shootout. My favorite value here is Paul George ($8,800), who is still reasonably priced and is primed to attack a Green-less interior.
Indiana is another interesting injury spot to monitor. Victor Oladipo (knee) has a knack for shedding questionable tags late in the day, but if he's out, I'm pivoting immediately to Tyreke Evans ($5,400). Evans has been a bit of a fantasy darling of late, although his numbers don't reflect that kind of attention. I'm only using him if Oladipo is out. Conversely, I would still go with Domantas Sabonis ($6,300) even if Myles Turner (ankle) suits up because his floor is a lot more reliable. This spot is the injury pivot you can set and forget.
Finally, Toronto is on the tail end of a back-to-back, so you know what that means. Yes, it's a safe bet to say that Kawhi Leonard won't take the floor on Wednesday. There's a lot of love for Fred VanVleet ($4,900) out there, and his price is undoubtedly attractive, but Danny Green ($4,600) is $300 cheaper and could give you the same value. If you want to go a little higher, Serge Ibaka ($6,300) and Pascal Siakam ($6,600) will see a bump as well. Again, this is all dependent on the assumption that Kawhi takes a seat.
OK, let's get down to my picks for the night. With all of the above endorsements in mind, I'll now select three players at each position, accompanied by a small list of players that I'm willing to endorse. When possible, I'll endeavor to include a top-shelf player, a mid-range target and a low-cost value play at each spot.
My head is spinning here from all the options. I'm going to go for solid floors as much as possible.
GUARDS
Kemba Walker, CHA vs. IND ($9,800): You could make an argument for James Harden at $1,100 more but how can you ignore Kemba at the rate he's going? His last four games have been nothing short of spectacular (51.9 DKFP per game), and he scored 81 – yes, EIGHTY-ONE DKFP against the Sixers. That's quite simply insane. An argument can be made that Indiana is a tough defensive team, but if you wager on Oladipo and Turner's absence, the potential for this matchup reaches gargantuan proportions. I will be honest – I think you need one of the BIG names in your lineup if you want a winning score tonight, but I will try to slot Walker in where I can when I can.
De'Aaron Fox, SAC at UTA ($6,400): A mid-range guy here was tough. I did a full write-up of Luka Doncic and then erased it, mostly due to the fact that despite Dennis Smith's questionable tag, I think Brooklyn may have Dallas' number tonight. Fox put up 41 DKFP against the Jazz in their last meeting, and I think the game script favors Fox over other options like Trae Young against a tough Toronto defense or streaky players like Rubio or Jamal Murray. The Kings have dropped three straight, and I think they're due to bounce back. I believe we'll see Fox's shot warm back up after he went 1-for 10 against the Thunder in their last game.
Kyle Anderson, MEM at SA ($4,500): I mentioned a few guys in this range earlier, but Anderson is a value guy who is definitely trending up. The Spurs are notoriously slow-paced, but that pace is offset by a much softer defense this season, particularly against opposing backcourts. Vegas has no love for this game (a meager 200 O/U), but I'd take the over tonight and consider Anderson.
Other guards to consider: Russell Westbrook, OKC at GS ($10,700), Devin Booker, PHO at CHI ($8,700), D'Angelo Russell, BKN at DAL ($7,200), C.J. McCollum, POR at MIL ($6,400)
FORWARDS
I'll freely admit it -- Durant and George are my guys up top. If you look at overall reliability and matchup, I don't see a way that I'm fading them over Giannis. The only argument I can make here is for LeBron due to the intangibles of that game, but I don't know if I'm willing to go there in a cash setup. So, with that in mind, we'll dip for value with the next three picks.
Julius Randle, NO at PHI ($7,000): All eyes will be on the much-anticipated Brow/Process matchup, but Randle will steal some thunder. He's coming off a triple-double against the Spurs, and he got there in – get this – 25 minutes. Mirotic is back to 100 percent, but Randle should continue to take charge in a reserve role. Philly's revamped lineup could use some defensive help, so expect Randle to crash the boards alongside Embiid.
Buddy Hield, SAC at UTA ($5,600): He only put up 30 DKFP in their last matchup, but a few shots here and a rebound or two there could shift Hield's fortunes enough to make him a sneaky value play on this slate. Hield continues to get a lot of looks at the basket (4.4 field-goal attempts per game inside 10 feet) and provides a solid floor. His plus-minus (+7.8 per 100 possessions) is consistently in the black, which is a tough proposition when you play in Sacramento.
Juancho Hernangomez, DEN at MIN ($4,700): You might have missed this if you don't comb the scrap heap regularly. But over the past week, Hernangomez has put up two 40-plus DKFP games. How has this happened? You can narrow it down to two things – minutes and Will Barton. With Barton out, Hernangomez has become the unlikely beneficiary, and it's resulted in an average of 32 minutes per game over his last five contests. The Timberwolves are on a bit of a roll, but I don't think it will affect this pick adversely.
Other forwards to consider: Khris Middleton, MIL vs. POR ($7,000), Jayson Tatum, BOS vs. NY ($6,200), Jeremy Lamb, CHA vs. IND ($5,400)
CENTERS
Anthony Davis ($11,400) vs. Joel Embiid ($10,800) – NO at PHI: What to do here? Let's look at some history. They squared off against each other only once last season (Embiid was out in one of the two games played). Davis had 57 DKFP, Embiid had 51. Embiid plays better at home, and so does Davis. Embiid has Jimmy Butler now. Davis' situation is largely unchanged, save some production from Julius Randle. The Brow, for all of his delectable stat lines, stacks up as the lesser of the two options in my opinion. You're probably alright with either pick, but I'll be going with Embiid if I spend up here.
Steven Adams, OKC at GS ($7,400): I like this pick for much of the same reasons that I love Paul George. The Warriors are without Draymond Green and without a solid option at center. Adams lit them up with 40 DKFP in their last game, and he only took eight shots. If he gets more looks at the basket and equals his rebound totals, we could see Adams break 50 DKFP, and we can pat ourselves on the back for fading AD and Embiid.
Jarrett Allen, BKN at DAL ($5,600): He's on a back-to-back, but recent history tells us that he isn't much affected by this metric, as Allen totaled 40 points, 23 rebounds and three blocks across the Nets' most recent back-to-back. He's also returned to form after a slump that sunk his price down into very favorable territory. Allen is coming off three straight double-doubles, and if DeAndre Jordan flatters, it could be a massive night for Allen.
Other centers to consider: Rudy Gobert, UTA vs. SAC ($7,800), Tristan Thompson, CLE vs. LAL ($5,800)
