This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Slate Overview
BKN (-8.5) vs. DET, O/U: 232.5
HOU vs. NO (-4.5), O/U: 220.5
NY vs. MIA (-6.5), O/U: 208.5
GS vs. SA (-1.5), O/U: 232.5
BOS vs. UTA (-4.5), O/U: 220.5
ORL vs. POR (-4.5), O/U: 222.5
PHI (-5) vs. SAC, O/U: 231.5
Tuesday's DraftKings NBA slate tips off at 7:00 p.m. EST and includes seven games. Kevin Durant, Christian Wood and Victor Oladipo have already been ruled out. Jaylen Brown is questionable and likely to be a game-time decision. Mike Conley, Evan Fournier and Goran Dragic are out while the Pistons have multiple players with questionable tags.
The BKN-DET matchup will be a popular target. The Nets have the best offense and worst defense in the league since the James Harden trade. The Pistons are likely to be shorthanded at guard while the Nets will be without Kevin Durant. Rostering Harden or Irving and running it back with one or two value pieces from Detroit will likely be a popular construction. Targeting the ORL-POR and PHI-SAC matchups is appealing in order to keep rosters flexible for late news. Last night, I was too heavy on the early games and couldn't take proper advantage of the Devin Booker chalk after Chris Paul was unexpectedly ruled out after lock. It seems reasonable to fade the NY-MIA matchup as it has the lowest total by a significant margin. The Heat are big favorites and Tom Thibodeau has turned the Knicks into a relatively stingy defensive team.
Injuries to Monitor
Kevin Durant (COVID-19): OUT
Durant won't be eligible to return until Friday due to the league's health and safety protocols. Jeff Green ($5,300) will likely start again at power forward.
Christian Wood (ankle): OUT
Wood will be evaluated on a weekly basis after spraining his right ankle. DeMarcus Cousins ($7,400) will start at center.
Victor Oladipo (rest): OUT
Oladipo will rest as the Rockets are playing the second night of a back-to-back. Eric Gordon ($6,200) will likely start at shooting guard.
Jaylen Brown (knee): QUESTIONABLE
Brown has missed the past two games due to knee soreness but could return tonight. Carsen Edwards ($3,500) started at shooting guard last time out.
Mike Conley (hamstring): OUT
Conley will miss a second consecutive game due to a lingering hamstring injury. Joe Ingles ($5,800) should start again.
Evan Fournier (back): OUT
Fournier will miss a second consecutive game due to back spasms. Dwayne Bacon ($4,200) will likely start again at shooting guard.
Delon Wright (ankle): QUESTIONABLE
Wright played 46 minutes Saturday but apparently suffered an ankle injury and is listed as questionable for tonight. Derrick Rose was traded to the Knicks and Wayne Ellington, Frank Jackson and Dennis Smith are also listed as questionable, so the Pistons could be shorthanded at guard. Josh Jackson ($5,700) should see increased run.
Goran Dragic (ankle): OUT
Dragic will miss a second consecutive game with a sprained ankle. Kendrick Nunn ($5,600) should get another start at shooting guard.
LaMarcus Aldridge (hip): QUESTIONABLE
Aldridge is listed as questionable but will likely be out again tonight. Jakob Poeltl ($6,000) should continue to start at center in his place.
Elite Players
James Harden ($10,900), Joel Embiid ($10,500), Stephen Curry ($10,400) and Damian Lillard ($10,000) are the four players with five-figure salaries on tonight's slate. Harden leads the league in assists and has posted two triple-doubles in the past four games. The Nets will be without Kevin Durant tonight and have a favorable matchup against the Pistons, so I'd expect Harden to be a popular spend-up option. Embiid continues to impress as he's now scored at least 28 real points in eight straight games. He's never quite as popular as I expect, but the Sixers are in a great spot tonight against the Kings. Curry and the Warriors will be playing the second night of a back-to-back in a rematch with the Spurs. He's put up over 70 DK points twice in the past four games and is coming off 54.25 yesterday. He's likely to be the least popular of these four and makes for a good tournament pivot tonight. Lillard played 38 minutes Saturday and is off the injury report after missing practice yesterday. His salary is a bit more affordable than in recent weeks and Portland has a favorable matchup against Orlando in one of the late games. I like him for tournaments as a pivot off the presumably more popular Harden, and it helps save some salary as well. In a vacuum, Harden and Embiid are my picks from this bunch.
There is a bit of a salary gap between the top four and Kyrie Irving ($9,300), Jayson Tatum ($9,200) and Julius Randle ($9,100), who make up the entire 9K salary range. Irving sat out Saturday with a sprained finger but is listed as probable and expected to play tonight. The Nets will be without Durant and I will almost always have interest in the other two guys when one of their big three is out. Jaylen Brown has missed the last two games and is listed as questionable tonight. If he were to sit, I'd like Tatum as a less popular tournament option. If Brown plays, Tatum seems a bit too expensive in a matchup against the Jazz. Randle just keeps doing it night after night. He's played at least 38 minutes in four consecutive games while topping 50 DK points in three of the past five. He won't be very popular tonight in a tough matchup against Miami with other more appealing plays at center. Kyrie would be my pick from this group, as I think his chances for a ceiling game are highest.
Nikola Vucevic ($8,900) should also be included here. He put up 77 DK points two games ago and has a favorable matchup against Enes Kanter and the Blazers. I'd be expect him to be a popular option at center tonight.
Expected Chalk
James Harden ($10,900)
The Nets will be without Durant and are playing in the opening game of the night. Harden is the most appealing spend-up option on the slate and even though there doesn't seem to be any cheap value jumping off the page, I'd expect managers to just roster Harden and then plan for some value to open up after lock. We've seen unexpected late news have an impact on most slates this season and tonight isn't likely to be any different. The Pistons and Magic are already short-handed and multiple teams are playing back-to-backs. I'd expect Harden, in a stars and scrubs style build, to be very popular in most contests.
Value Picks
John Wall ($7,300)
The Rockets will be without Victor Oladipo while Wall will return after resting yesterday. He scored 41 DK points as he saw his minutes upped to 32 last time out, and his salary is still very affordable.
Jerami Grant ($7,000)
Grant is coming off 27 shot attempts and 53 DK points against the Lakers. His salary is the cheapest it's been in 10 games and the Pistons will face a bad Nets defense tonight. He makes sense in lineups with Harden or Kyrie.
Dejounte Murray ($6,500)
Derrick White will rest tonight and the Spurs are still without LaMarcus Aldridge. Murray exploded for 62 DK points yesterday and actually has seen a $300 drop in salary for tonight's rematch with the Warriors.
Kendrick Nunn ($5,600)
Nunn will get another start at shooting guard in the absence of the injured Goran Dragic. He's played at least 30 minutes in nine of the past 10 games and would be a good value option if cheaper chalk doesn't emerge.
Dwayne Bacon ($4,200)
Bacon will start a second consecutive game at shooting guard for the injured Evan Fournier. The Magic are already short-handed at guard and Bacon played 31 minutes last time out.
Lonnie Walker ($3,600)
Walker has missed the past two games with a stomach illness but is expected to return tonight. Derrick White has already been ruled out for the Spurs and there is a chance Walker replaces him in the starting lineup.
