This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Slate Overview
NO vs. UTA (-6), O/U: 218
OKC vs. DEN (-9.5), O/U: 220.5
Tuesday's Draftkings NBA slate tips off at 9:00 p.m. EST and includes two games that start simultaneously. For once, we won't have to worry about injury news and late-swapping. Lonzo Ball is listed as questionable and said he plans to play after missing the past three games. Al Horford will miss his third consecutive game as he's out for personal reasons again. Joe Ingles is questionable and likely to be a game-time decision after missing the previous three.
Two-game slates should be approached differently, especially if you want to win a large field tournament. Thinking about ways to be unique should take precedence over simply playing the best projected players. Game-stacking is more viable on smaller slates. Think about particular game scripts and how they would affect each player. Some of the chalk will fail tonight while a few of the less popular players will put up useful scores. Embracing risk is even more advantageous on smaller slates as less popular, high-leverage plays make for the simplest way to win a tournament. Both of tonight's games have similar spreads and totals, so target whichever one you like and build lineups that fit specific scenarios.
Injuries to Monitor
Michael Porter (COVID-19): OUT
Porter is still in quarantine and will miss tonight's game. The Nuggets hope to have him back Friday.
Lonzo Ball (knee): QUESTIONABLE
Ball has missed the past three games but returned to practice Monday and said that he plans to play tonight. If he does sit, Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($5,400) would likely start again.
Al Horford (personal): OUT
Horford will miss his third consecutive game tonight. Isaiah Roby ($4,100) will continue to start at center.
Joe Ingles (achilles): QUESTIONABLE
Ingles has missed the past three games but could return tonight. If he sits, Jordan Clarkson ($6,300) and Bogdan Bogdanovic ($5,300) will continue to see increased run.
Derrick Favors (knee): PROBABLE
Favors has been playing through knee soreness and is expected to suit up again tonight.
Elite Players
Nikola Jokic ($11,000)
Jokic is the only truly elite player on tonight's slate. He's averaging a triple-double and almost 61 DK points per game this season. The only times that Jokic has failed this season have been in blowouts, and making lineups based on specific game scripts is more viable on a two-game slate. While it's likely not optimal to fade him tonight, the potential for leverage is bigger on smaller slates, making it a worthy gamble.
Brandon Ingram ($9,100)
Ingram's salary has risen to over $9,000 for the first time this season, but it doesn't seem warranted. He's really struggled lately, failing to top 36 DK points in each of the past three games even though the Pelicans have been short-handed. Everyone is in play on a two-game slate, but I'll be looking fade Ingram tonight.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($8,700)
Gilgeous-Alexander is coming off a monster 58.75 DK point performance in Friday's overtime win over the Bulls. He has also seen a big increase in salary, going from $7,700 to $8,700. Prior to tonight, the highest we've seen his salary this season was $8,100. It's difficult to justify paying that unless you plan on stacking the OKC-DEN game.
Donovan Mitchell ($8,200)
Mitchell has yet to hit the heights we saw in the bubble, as he's eclipsed 50 DK points just once this season. It's difficult to afford him in lineups that feature Jokic, so I think the other two Jazz guards make more sense tonight. Mike Conley ($6,800) and Jordan Clarkson ($6,500) have both been playing well. Also, keep an eye on the status of Joe Ingles. He has missed the past three games and that has contributed to increased minutes and usage for Clarkson.
Expected Chalk
Nikola Jokic ($11,000)
As I mentioned above, Jokic is the only elite player on tonight's slate. He will be very popular in both cash games and tournaments. If you are building one lineup or even just a few, lock him in and try to differentiate somewhere else.
Isaiah Roby ($4,100)
Roby has started the last two games in place of Al Horford and put up 24 and 27.5 DK points. His salary is still very affordable and without much for value tonight, I'd expect him to be popular in all formats.
Value Picks
Zion Williamson ($7,900)
Williamson is $1,200 cheaper than Ingram but has been outperforming him lately. Zion's been consistent as well, averaging 42 DK points in his last five without a hitting a ceiling game.
Jamal Murray ($7,300)
It's been an underwhelming start to the season for Murray, but he's topped 40 DK points in consecutive games and can be rostered for significantly less salary than Gilgeous-Alexander and Mitchell.
Eric Bledsoe ($6,000)
Bledsoe returned to the starting lineup Sunday after missing some time with an eye injury. Keep an eye on the status of Ball as it will likely impact Bledsoe's minutes and usage. Conley and Clarkson are also viable options in this range, but keep an eye on the status of Ingles as his availability would result in a slight downgrade to Clarkson.
George Hill ($4,300)
On a slate without much for clear value, Hill stands out as a cheap starting guard with a decent chance to be optimal if the game stays close. Gary Harris ($4,400) is an option in a similar vein, while Monte Morris ($4,200) and PJ Dozier ($3,900) would likely benefit from a blowout.
Mike Muscala ($3,400)
Roby will be popular tonight, but the Thunder big men have a tough matchup against Jokic and the Nuggets. Muscala played 27 minutes off the bench and scored 21 DK points Sunday. He could provide good leverage if you plan on fading Roby.
