This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Slate Overview
MIA vs. PHI
DEN vs. BKN
UTA vs. CLE
LA vs. HOU
SA (-2.5) vs. OKC, O/U: 216.5
IND vs. GS
Tuesday's DraftKings slate tips off at 7:00 p.m. EST and includes six games. Last night, the Sixers barely had enough players to play and tonight we have a similar situation with the Heat. The MIA-PHI matchup will be an important game to target as the remaining Heat players will see big minutes and usage tonight. They are likely an even better target than the Sixers were last night because there is no spend-up option. Tyler Herro ($6,700), Kelly Olynyk ($5,300) and Duncan Robinson ($4,800) will be popular plays tonight for that reason.
A less popular game to target could be the SA-OKC matchup. The game has a low total, but there are multiple value options on both sides with DeMar DeRozan ruled out and the Thunder players having favorable salaries. Targeting IND-GS seems reasonable too as it's the final game of the slate and likely to be competitive. It provides a solid fallback should we get some unexpected news earlier, which seems to be a nightly occurrence this season.
Note: At the time of writing this article, five of six games are still off the board.
Injuries to Monitor
LeBron James (ankle): QUESTIONABLE
James gets the questionable tag every night but has yet to miss a game this season. If he surprisingly sits, Kyle Kuzma ($5,400) would likely start in his place.
Kyrie Irving (personal): OUT
Irving will miss his fourth straight game tonight and it's unclear when he will be ready to rejoin the team. Caris LeVert ($7,600) should get another start at point guard.
Anthony Davis (hip): QUESTIONABLE
Davis missed his first game of the season last Friday but returned to action Sunday. If he sits tonight, expect Markieff Morris ($3,400) and Montrezl Harrell ($6,000) to see increased run.
Ben Simmons (knee): QUESTIONABLE
Simmons is expected to return tonight after missing the previous two games with a swollen knee.
Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler, Goran Dragic, Avery Bradley, Kendrick Nunn (COVID-19): OUT
Miami will be without a host of players tonight. Andre Iguodala ($3,300), Precious Achiuwa ($3,100) and Kelly Olynyk ($5,300) are expected to step into the starting lineup.
DeMar DeRozan (personal): OUT
DeRozan will miss his second straight game due to a personal matter. Trey Lyles ($3,300) will likely start again.
Tobias Harris (COVID-19): QUESTIONABLE
Harris sat out last night due to the league's health and safety protocols. If he sits again, Mike Scott ($3,800) should see more run.
John Wall (migraine): QUESTIONABLE
Wall missed practice Monday with a migraine. If he sits tonight, Ben McLemore ($3,500) and Sterling Brown ($3,000) would likely see more minutes.
Collin Sexton (ankle): QUESTIONABLE
Sexton was a late scratch last night after initially being announced as a starter. If he sits again tonight, Damyean Dotson ($5,000) would draw another start.
Darius Garland (shoulder): QUESTIONABLE
Garland has missed five consecutive games after sitting out again last night with a sprained shoulder. Isaac Okoro ($3,400) has been starting in his place.
Elite Players
Nikola Jokic ($11,000) and James Harden ($10,800) are the most expensive players on the slate. Jokic has only played 30 minutes in each of the past two games due to blowouts and it has resulted in his two lowest fantasy outputs this season. Harden continues to disappoint. He hasn't taken more than 14 shots in any of the past three games while only attempting nine free throws in that span. It's hard to trust Harden at this point and we have started to see that reflected in his roster percentage. Jokic will be the more popular play, and he would be my pick between the two tonight.
There are plenty of other elite options at center tonight. Joel Embiid ($9,700) is playing the second night of a back-to-back. He played 24 minutes in his return after missing Saturday's game with a sore back. It's difficult to trust him tonight, especially with other nice options available. Anthony Davis ($9,500) returned Sunday after missing his first game of the season Friday. He's listed as questionable again tonight. Davis has been underwhelming to start the season but always has the upside to be the highest scorer on the slate. Domantas Sabonis ($9,300) and Andre Drummond ($9,100) are more preferable options in my opinion. Sabonis has recorded a double-double in every game this season while averaging nearly six assists. Drummond likely has the safest floor of all the centers. He's putting up big double-doubles every night and with the injuries in Cleveland, he even gets a slight usage bump.
At guard, LeBron James ($10,000) and Stephen Curry ($9,800) seem preferable to Harden based on price alone. LeBron has eclipsed 60 DK points just once this season while Curry has had a couple big ceiling games recently. I think Curry will be the popular spend-up option at point guard and that's where I'm leaning as well.
Kevin Durant ($9,400) returned Sunday after a week-long absence and played 38 minutes while putting up 58.25 DK points. Durant appears to be fully healthy and, with Kyrie Irving ruled out again, will see big usage. He's among my favorite of all the elite players on tonight's slate.
Expected Chalk
Tyler Herro ($6,700)
Herro is basically all that's left for Miami tonight. He will be the only true point guard active and should see his highest usage percentage of the season. He's likely to be the most popular player on the slate in all formats, and rightfully so.
Kelly Olynyk ($5,300)
Olynyk is listed as probable with a groin injury. He's likely to start at center tonight with Bam Adebayo quarantined. Olynyk has been productive from a fantasy standpoint whenever he sees significant minutes, and he should get even more usage tonight with Miami missing so many players. He will be a popular cash play and I like his upside for tournaments as well.
Precious Achiuwa ($3,100)
Achiuwa should get his first start of the season tonight and see significant minutes. He's averaged nearly a fantasy point per minute while playing around 15 minutes off the bench in each of Miami's eight games so far. His minimal salary will allow for a stars-and-scrubs style build tonight.
Value Picks
Duncan Robinson ($4,800)
Robinson should see more minutes and usage than usual given the Heat players missing for tonight's game. His three-point shooting gives him nice upside for tournaments.
LaMarcus Aldridge ($6,300)
Aldridge had his first meaningful fantasy performances of the season in two good games last week. He has played over 30 minutes in three consecutive games and, with DeMar DeRozan out again tonight, he should be good value again.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($8,000)
Gilgeous-Alexander has three straight games with over 50 DK points and his salary is still quite favorable. He makes perfect sense in any lineup that has a Spur in it.
Draymond Green ($5,600)
Green was one rebound shy of a triple-double last time out and his salary is still very affordable. We know what kind of upside Draymond has and now that he's healthy and playing more minutes, it's only a matter of time until he strings together some decent performances and gets a salary increase.
Al Horford ($5,900)
Horford is coming off 38.5 DK points in 28 minutes. It was his best fantasy performance of the season and with a salary still under 6K, he should be a good value again tonight in a matchup where OKC will want to have a center on the floor.
