This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Slate Overview
BOS (-1) vs. IND, O/U: 218.5
CHI vs. WAS (-5.5), O/U: 234.5
GS (-3.5) vs. DET, O/U: 222.5
NY vs. CLE (-3.5), O/U: 217
TOR vs. PHI (-2.5), O/U: 218.5
MIL (-5.5) vs. MIA, O/U: 222.5
ORL (-5) vs. OKC, O/U: 219.5
DEN (-2.5) vs. SAC, O/U: 223.5
MIN vs LAC (-8.5), O/U: 229.5
NO vs. PHX (-3), O/U: 223.5
Tuesday's slate tips off at 7:00 p.m. EST and includes 10 games. The CHI-WAS game has the highest total by a significant margin. MIN-LAC has the second-highest total and both rosters feature multiple injuries that could impact starting lineups. The earlier games are good options to fade, considering the lower totals and the late-game news that likely won't come until after lock. Speaking of late news, the early season NBA DFS headlines have centered around the uncertainty and unpredictability of starting lineups. More players are sitting out for maintenance, and teams seem to be exercising more caution with injuries. The so called "best plays" change from hour to hour and players who were thought to be chalk in the morning are afterthoughts by lock time. Plan your strategy accordingly.
Injuries to Monitor
Jimmy Butler (ankle): DOUBTFUL
According to Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra, Butler is unlikely to play tonight against the Bucks. Goran Dragic ($5,800) could step into the starting five, and Tyler Herro ($5,700) should also see a usage spike with Butler sidelined.
Kawhi Leonard (mouth): QUESTIONABLE
Leonard practiced Monday. His ability to play through a mouth laceration is more of a comfort issue and the Clippers could choose to play it safe on the first night of a back-to-back. If he sits, Luke Kennard ($4,500) would likely be in line for more run.
Joel Embiid (back): PROBABLE
Embiid was a late scratch Sunday due to back tightness but should return to the starting lineup tonight.
Karl-Anthony Towns (wrist): OUT
Towns was diagnosed with a left wrist dislocation and will likely miss a couple weeks. Naz Reid ($5,100) will start his second consecutive game.
Josh Okogie (hamstring): DOUBTFUL
Okogie left Sunday's game early with a hamstring injury, and while it isn't thought to be serious, he is unlikely to play tonight. Jarrett Culver ($4,500) saw a minutes bump Sunday and could be in line for a start.
Lauri Markkanen (calf): QUESTIONABLE
Markkanen sustained a bruised calf Sunday, and while the injury doesn't appear serious, it's possible the Bulls could exercise some caution. Otto Porter ($5,400) would be in line for increased minutes if Markkanen is held out.
Elite Players
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,800) and Nikola Jokic ($10,200) are the most expensive players on the slate and the only two with a salary over 10K. Giannis has had an underwhelming start to the season, while Jokic has posted big numbers, including two triple-doubles in his first three games. With Jokic playing on the second night of a back-to-back and other good options at center, I think there are other ways to go.
Russell Westbrook ($9,700) sat out for rest purposes Sunday. He has recorded triple-doubles in his first two games but still has a salary $600 cheaper than his last time out. The Wizards have the highest implied team total on the slate. Westbrook will be popular tonight, and rightfully so. Stephen Curry ($9,600) is coming off his best game of the season and shouldn't be overlooked. With Westbrook likely to be highly rostered, Curry is a worthy pivot with slate-breaking upside.
At the center position, Andre Drummond ($8,700) and Domantas Sabonis ($8,600) have posted big numbers to start the season and neither has seen a dramatic increase in salary. If Jokic is going to be be popular tonight, Drummond and Sabonis offer good leverage.
Expected Chalk
Naz Reid ($5,100) started for the injured Towns on Sunday and put up 27.25 DK points in 28 minutes. His salary is up $900 since then, but it's still too cheap for his projections. Reid will likely be a popular cash play and at this salary he could put up a tournament-worthy score as well.
Blake Griffin ($6,900) sat out Sunday for maintenance purposes. He's coming off 48 DK points in 44 minutes and his salary doesn't properly reflect his expected range of outcomes. Griffin is viable in all formats tonight.
Goran Dragic ($5,800) is likely to start for the injured Butler. He's put up stellar numbers while playing about 27 minutes off the bench in the first two games of the season and should see a bump in minutes and usage tonight.
Value Picks
D'Angelo Russell ($7,600) has underwhelmed in the first three games of the season but gets another chance to lead the team without KAT on the floor tonight. He has shown upside in these spots in the past, and an increase in usage should give him a better chance for a ceiling game.
De'Aaron Fox ($7,600) had a salary of $8,700 just last week. He's still the same player on the same team, and these are the type of spots to target throughout the season. He has the upside to put up an optimal score and his salary has come down to a point where it's reasonable to chase.
Brandon Ingram ($8,200) and Zion Williamson ($8,100) are two players likely to see a salary increase soon. They are too cheap for their potential, not only in this spot tonight but in almost any matchup at those salaries.
Tyler Herro ($5,700) struggled shooting the ball in his first two games but will get a chance to bounce back with Butler sidelined. He should play big minutes, and the increased usage from Butler's absence will give him a good shot to hit value.
Jarrett Culver ($4,500) could get the start in place of the injured Okogie. The Timberwolves will already be missing Towns, and Culver is a player who only needs minutes to put up a worthy score at his salary.
