This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Slate Overview
GS vs. DAL (-3.5), O/U: 224.5
UTA (-7.5) vs. ATL, O/U: 224
POR vs PHI (-9.5), O/U: 227.5
HOU vs. MEM (-1.5), O/U: 223.5
DEN vs. LAL (-5), O/U: 219.5
Thursday's DraftKings NBA slate tips off at 7:30 p.m. and includes five games. Damian Lillard is questionable, Victor Oladipo is likely to rest and John Wall is expected to return from a one-game absence. The Lakers host the Nuggets and the Warriors travel to Dallas in the two marquee games of the night.
The Warriors will be shorthanded in the frontcourt for a matchup against Doncic and the Mavericks, who will be playing the second night of a back-to-back. Kristaps Porzingis could be rested as he's played on consecutive days just once this season. Draymond Green and Juan Toscano-Anderson are likely to be popular value options and running them back with Doncic makes sense. The UTA-ATL matchup seems like a reasonable option to fade as it's the first game of the slate and the Jazz are big favorites. We could be waiting on very significant news as Damian Lillard is likely to be a game-time decision and it will be advantageous to keep lineups flexible for late-swap purposes.
Injuries to Monitor
Damian Lillard (abdominal): QUESTIONABLE
Lillard is listed as questionable for tonight with an abdominal strain. If he were to miss, Anfernee Simons ($4,600) would likely get the start at point guard.
Victor Oladipo (rest): DOUBTFUL
Oladipo is unlikely to play the second half of a back-to-back tonight. Eric Gordon ($5,800) will likely start in his place.
John Wall (Achilles): QUESTIONABLE
Wall sat out last night to rest his Achilles but he's expected to return tonight.
Jonas Valanciunas (COVID-19): OUT
Valanciunas will miss a fifth consecutive game tonight. Xavier Tillman ($5,200) will get another start at center.
Gary Harris (thigh): OUT
Harris will undergo an MRI to determine the extent of his thigh strain. Monte Morris ($4,200) will likely start at shooting guard in his absence tonight.
James Wiseman (wrist) and Kevon Looney (ankle): OUT
Wiseman and Looney will miss at least the next few games. Eric Paschall ($4,500) and Juan Toscano-Anderson ($3,500) will see increased run.
Elite Players
Nikola Jokic ($11,000), Joel Embiid ($10,200) and Anthony Davis are the elite centers on tonight's slate. Jokic is coming off a 77 DK point outing in which he dominated DPOY candidate Rudy Gobert but the Nuggets have a tough matchup against the Lakers tonight. Embiid has topped 57 DK points in five of his last six games. Despite the consistency, managers have been hesitant to roster. The Sixers are playing the second night of a back-to-back meaning he will likely be under-played again tonight. Davis continues to underwhelm as he's failed to hit 40 DK points in two of the past four games while topping 50 just three times in the past 10. He has a difficult matchup against Jokic tonight. I prefer rostering Embiid for his upside and the salary savings he provides over Jokic, especially if he's going to be less popular.
Luka Doncic ($10,900), Damian Lillard ($10,400), Stephen Curry ($9,800) and Trae Young ($9,300) are the spend-up options at guard tonight. Doncic busted out of minor slump last night with 64 DK points and gets a matchup against Curry tonight. Lillard is listed as questionable with an abdominal strain and Portland will be big underdogs against the Sixers. Curry is fresh off 73 DK points against the Celtics while Young struggled last night against the Mavericks and faces a tough matchup against the Jazz tonight. Doncic and Curry will face each other in what should be a competitive matchup and they're my preferred options in this group.
LeBron James ($10,00) is the only elite option at small forward tonight making it likely that he will be a popular spend-up option. Positional scarcity often dictates popularity among the elite players and with so few appealing options at small forward, I'd expect James to be significantly rostered.
Expected Chalk
Draymond Green ($5,200)
I didn't expect to be writing Green up as chalk with the way he's been playing this season but the Warriors will be without James Wiseman and Kevon Looney tonight. The only other bigs available are Eric Paschall and Juan Toscano-Anderson. Draymond played 36 minutes on Tuesday after Looney was injured in the first half and put up 31.75 DK points despite shooting 1-7 from the field. I'd expect him to be popular in most contests tonight.
Juan Toscano-Anderson ($3,500)
If Toscano-Anderson starts at power forward tonight, he will likely be the chalkiest value option on the slate. As I mentioned above with Green, the Warriors will be shorthanded in the frontcourt and there isn't much else for cheap value as things stand. It's a bit concerning that Toscano-Anderson has only seen the floor twice in the past month but if he plays significant minutes, it doesn't take much to hit value at $3,500.
Value Picks
John Wall ($6,900)
Victor Oladipo is likely to rest tonight and Wall is expected to return after sitting out yesterday. He's scored at least 35 DK points in four consecutive games but has played 30 minutes just once in that span. Playing time is a concern but he can still get there in limited minutes and if he sees extended run, would be a bargain for $6,900.
Eric Gordon ($5,800)
Gordon will likely get another start tonight in the absence of Victor Oladipo. He's coming off 35 DK points in 28 minutes last night and should be good value again.
Kevin Huerter ($5,500)
Huerter has played at least 38 minutes in three of the past four games as the Hawks have dealt with injuries at forward. De'Andre Hunter and Bogdan Bogdanovic are out again tonight making Huerter is a decent value option at forward on a slate that lacks obvious choices.
Will Barton ($5,200)
Barton will be a popular pay-down option at forward. The Nuggets are still missing Gary Harris and PJ Dozier and Barton put up 35 DK points in 37 minutes last time out.
Eric Paschall ($4,500)
If Paschall were to get the start at power forward instead of Juan Toscano-Anderson, he would likely be a chalky value option tonight. I wouldn't have much interest if he comes off the bench.
Monte Morris ($4,200)
Morris will likely start for the injured Gary Harris tonight. The Nuggets have a tough matchup against the Lakers but there isn't much for cheap value at guard and Morris provides a relatively safe option.
