DraftKings NBA: Thursday Cheat Sheet

DraftKings NBA: Thursday Cheat Sheet

This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.

After a massive 12-game slate Wednesday, we take a bit of a breather with a five-game ledger Thursday that features some big names on the injury report but also is expected to commemorate the return of Michael Porter from COVID-19 protocols. However, the Nets' Kevin Durant remains out for the same reason.

Oddsmakers are expecting a bit of everything in terms of the competitiveness of scheduled games, as the Nets-Sixers and Mavericks-Nuggets contests that bookend the night have point spreads of 1.5 and 2.5 points, respectively, as of Thursday morning at DraftKings Sportsbook. The one potential blowout that's envisioned is in Portland, where the Trail Blazers are favored by 10.5 points over the Timberwolves.

In terms of expected offense, there are four games with projected totals of 222.0 points or greater, which is encouraging from a DFS perspective.

With injury news, value plays and other developments to break down, let's dive into Thursday's five-game slate!

Slate Overview

Here's a further look at the three games with the highest projected totals on Thursday's slate:

Timberwolves at Trail Blazers (Projected total: 233.5 points) 

Although appreciably more scoring contributions are expected from the Trail Blazers in this contest, this is an appealing game from a DFS view. Each team boasts an explosive backcourt, and the two squads are both playing at top-10 paces (Timberwolves -- 105.7 possessions per game; Trail Blazers -- 106.3 possessions per game). Both are also in the bottom 10 in points allowed per game, with Minnesota surrendering the third-most (120.0) and Portland yielding the sixth-most (118.1). Additionally, the Blazers are averaging 114.4 points per game, including 117.7 over the last three, both ranking them in the top 10. 

76ers at Nets (Projected total: 224.5 points) 

The 76ers just allowed 136 points to the Wizards in a track meet Wednesday and will be playing their third game in four nights, so the Nets could particularly find themselves in an advantageous position to rack up some points, even without Durant. Each squad is ranked in the top 10 in scoring, as Philadelphia is now averaging 114.8 per contest after putting up 141 on Wednesday, while Brooklyn is putting up the third-most points in the league with 119.5 per game. Pace is also favorable to offense here, as the Nets play at the fourth fastest (107.8 possessions per game), while the Sixers are ranked No. 8 (106.0 per contest). 

Mavericks at Nuggets (Projected total: 224.0 points) 

While both of these teams rank in the bottom half of the league in pace, they also boast some explosive players that can certainly pile up points. Additionally, Denver has been surprisingly vulnerable on defense, surrendering 116.0 points per game and allowing the fifth-highest shooting percentage (48.4). Then, while Dallas has struggled to find consistent success on offense outside of Luka Doncic, Denver is averaging 117.0 points per contest, the fourth-highest figure in the league.

Injury Situations to Monitor

NOTE: Injury reporting is especially fluid in the NBA, where the status of multiple players can change during the course of a day. Therefore, although the following serves as a foundation for the latest injury report as of the time the article is written, check back throughout the course of the day with RotoWire for the latest news regarding the status of all players on that night's slate. 

Key Injuries: 

Clear to return from COVID-19 Protocols: Michael Porter, DEN 

Kevin Durant, BKN (COVID-19 protocols)/ Status: OUT 

Durant remains out Thursday, meaning Kyrie Irving will continue to enjoy a bump in usage. Jeff Green could draw another start at power forward in Durant's stead after doing so during his teammate's first absence Tuesday.  

LeBron James, LAL (ankle)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE 

James has repeatedly played through this designation and is expected to do again Thursday. Additionally, with Anthony Davis (thigh) questionable, James would be poised to enjoy an even bigger role than usual should his teammate sit out. 

Anthony Davis, LAL (thigh)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE 

Davis apparently suffered his injury Tuesday against the Grizzlies, and his status figures to be updated after shootaround. If Davis were to sit out, LeBron James (ankle) would enjoy a significant boost in usage assuming he suits up, while either Markieff Morris or Kyle Kuzma would be in line for a start at power forward. 

Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN (wrist)/ Status: OUT 

Towns' wrist dislocation has him on week-to-week status for the time being and definitely sidelines him for Thursday's contest. Naz Reid and Ed Davis should continue splitting time at center, while the usage of the remaining members of Minnesota' starting five should also continue elevated.

Darius Garland, CLE (shoulder)/ Status: OUT 

Garland will remain out, which should lead to Collin Sexton shifting over to point guard again. 

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, LAL (ankle)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE 

If KCP can't go Thursday, Kyle Kuzma could draw another start. 

Josh Okogie, MIN (hamstring)/ Status: OUT 

Okogie's absence stands to give Jake Layman and Anthony Edwards the opportunity for extra run.

Other injuries of note:

Mike Scott, PHI (knee)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE 

Furkan Korkmaz (thigh)/ Status: OUT 

Trey Burke, DAL (illness)/ Status: OUT 

Rodions Kurucs, BKN (ankle)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE 

Matthew Dellavedova, CLE (concussion)/ Status: OUT 

John Konchar, MEM (ankle)/ Status: OUT

Rodney Hood, POR (quadriceps)/ Status: QUESTIONABLE 

Jontay Porter, MEM (knee)/ Status: OUT

NOTABLE LONG-TERM INJURIES: Ja Morant, MEM (ankle); Kristaps Porzingis, DAL (knee); Jaren Jackson, MEM (knee); Kevin Love, CLE (calf); Kevin Porter, CLE (personal); Derrick White, SAN (toe); Justise Winslow, MEM (hip): Nicholas Claxton, BKN (knee); Zach Collins, POR (ankle); Dylan Windler, CLE (hand); Dante Exum, CLE (calf)

Elite Players

There are three players with five-figure salaries on the five-game slate. Nikola Jokic ($10,900) leads the way up top, followed by Luka Doncic ($10,500) and LeBron James ($10,000). James continues to carry a questionable designation due to his ankle issue but is expected to continue playing through it. Of the trio, Jokic should be especially popular considering he's coming off having posted 53.0 and 70.75 DK points over his last two games. However, Doncic could have even greater upside at a salary that's $400 less, as the Nuggets come into Thursday allowing the highest offensive efficiency rating to point guards (35.4) and surrendering 48.3 percent shooting to the position, including 44.3 percent from three-point range.

There is also plenty of potential for elite production from a number of four-figure-salaried players, beginning with Kyrie Irving ($9,600) and continuing with Joel Embiid ($9,500), Damian Lillard ($9,300), Ben Simmons ($8,900) and C.J. McCollum ($8,500). There's a bit of caution that should be exercised with the two 76ers from that group, however, considering Philadelphia is playing on the second game of a back-to-back set after a wire-to-wire slugfest with the Wizards on Wednesday night and will be taking the floor for the third time in four nights overall.

Expected Chalk

All of the names mentioned in Elite Players section are naturally going to be very popular Thursday, and with just 10 teams in action, there's no question differentiation in tournaments could be a bit challenging. As mentioned earlier, Kyrie Irving -- and the rest of his first-unit mates, to a varying degree -- will be very popular in Durant's absence, while Timberwolves such as D'Angelo Russell and Malik Beasley should also continue to be rostered at a high clip with Karl-Anthony Towns (wrist) still out.  

Additionally, there could also be plenty of popular value plays, several of which will be covered in the following section.

Key Values   

Brandon Clarke, MEM vs. CLE ($5,300) 

Clarke continues to deliver solid returns relative to his salaries, having posted 23.75 to 30.25 DK points in four of his last five games. The young big has taken on a larger offensive role in the absence of Ja Morant (ankle), putting up double-digit shot attempts in five consecutive contests and shooting 46.9 percent in his current starting stint, which began three games ago. Thursday, he'll face a Cavaliers squad that's been vulnerable to offensive production to frontcourt players, allowing 47.0 percent shooting to bigs, including 38.3 percent from three-point range. Additionally, the Cavs rank in the bottom half of the league in rebounds (33.9), assists (11.1) and steals (5.5) per game allowed to frontcourt players, furthering Clarke's case.

JaMychal Green, DEN vs. DAL ($4,500)

Green has been a hit over his first three games in Denver, coming off the bench to score 28.25 and 27.0 DK points in his last two games after scoring 17.5 DK points over 12 minutes in his debut three games ago. The floor-stretching veteran is shooting 61.9 percent over the small sample, including an outstanding 61.5 percent (8-for-13) from behind the arc. Green has logged 27 and 20 minutes in his last two games as well, and Thursday, he'll face a Mavericks team that has struggled against power forwards thus far this season. Dallas checks in tied with Green's Nuggets squad for the sixth-highest offensive efficiency rating (27.0) allowed to PFs, a figure that's partly the byproduct of the Mavericks surrendering 49.5 percent shooting to the position, including 42.2 percent from three-point range. 

Gorgui Dieng, MEM vs. CLE ($4,100) 

Dieng has a steady role behind Jonas Valanciunas that's afforded him between 21 and 24 minutes in each of his last four games. The veteran has parlayed that opportunity into DK point totals of 23.0 to 30.5 in three of those contests, with Dieng contributing across the stat sheet by recording multiple steals or blocks in two of those games. Dieng is even spacing the floor at a career-best clip for the moment, shooting 42.9 percent from distance on an average of 3.0 three-point tries per contest. The Cavs' vulnerability against frontcourt players that were already enumerated in Clarke's entry could certainly benefit Dieng as well, making him an intriguing value consideration on the small slate.

Other value plays to consider: Jusuf Nurkic, POR vs. MIN ($6,200); Tim Hardaway, DAL at DEN ($6,000); Rudy Gay, SA at LAL ($4,800); Patty Mills, SA at LA ($4,300); De'Anthony Melton, MEM vs. CLE ($3,300); Jalen Brunson, DAL at DEN ($3,300)

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Juan Carlos Blanco plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: jcblanco22, FanDuel: jc_blanco22, DraftPot: jc_blanco22, FantasyDraft: jc_blanco22, OwnThePlay: jcblanco22.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Juan Carlos Blanco
Winner of the FSWA 2016 Newcomer of the Year Award, Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 years and covers NBA, MLB, NFL, CFL and Arena Football for Rotowire.com, including serving as the beat writer for teams in multiple sports. He has previously written for KFFL.com and remains an avid season-long and daily fantasy player in multiple sports as well.
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