This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Slate Overview
PHI (-3) vs. ORL, O/U: 217.5
SAC vs. HOU (-4.5), O/U: 229
NY vs. TOR (-9), O/U: 216
NO (-5.5) vs. OKC, O/U: 215
PHX vs. UTA (-3.5), O/U: 218.5
Thursday's slate tips off at 6:30 p.m. EST and includes five games. At the moment and somewhat surprisingly considering the chaotic start to this season, there is currently no big injury news that we will have to wait on. The Rockets will get John Wall, Eric Gordon and DeMarcus Cousins back after all three cleared quarantine. The SAC-HOU game has a significantly higher total than the other four games and features James Harden, making it likely to be a popular target. Blowouts have been another common theme in the season's early stages and while they don't typically affect the outcomes for elite players as much as people think, it may be time to put more of an emphasis on targeting games that project to be competitive.
Injuries to Monitor
Joel Embiid (back): PROBABLE
Embiid sat out on Sunday with a sore back but started on Tuesday and put up 62.5 DK points. He should be good to go again tonight.
Alec Burks (ankle): QUESTIONABLE
Burks missed Tuesday's game with a sprained ankle and will likely be a game-time decision tonight. Reggie Bullock ($4,600) benefitted most from his absence and would be in line for another minutes and usage bump should Burks miss again.
Elite Players
Like most slates that feature the Rockets, James Harden ($11,000) is the most expensive player tonight. Joel Embiid ($10,000) is the only other player with a salary above 10K. Normally we could just lock Harden in and figure the rest out but with John Wall, Eric Gordon and DeMarcus Cousins making their season debuts, his projected output is somewhat unpredictable. Another factor in the decision to play Harden or not is that at first glance there doesn't seem to much for cheap value on this slate. You might be better served making more balanced lineups tonight.
At the center position, Embiid is squarely in play and likely to be somewhat popular with the lack of cheaper options. Julius Randle ($8,800) has scored over 60 DK points in consecutive games. Somewhat surprising and also encouraging is the fact that Randle is third in the league in passes made per game. His average of 7.5 assists per game might not be so fluky. Nikola Vucevic ($8,700) could be the forgotten man tonight. If he's going to be significantly less popular, he offers good leverage without sacrificing value.
Expected Chalk
Julius Randle ($8,800)
Randle is averaging 37.5 minutes per night under new coach Tom Thibodeau and is coming off a triple-double on Tuesday. His assist rate is through the roof and the Knicks have a slew of injuries they're dealing with. Expect him to very popular in most contests.
Brandon Ingram ($8,000)
Ingram has been somewhat boom or bust through four games this season but his 8K salary is too low in relation to his ceiling potential. There aren't many options at small forward tonight and the Pelicans are a road favorite. I'd expect him to be popular in most formats.
Value Picks
John Wall ($7,100)
Wall will make his Rockets debut tonight and his salary seems reasonable. He put up decent preseason numbers while averaging 23 minutes per game and is a logical pivot off James Harden if you want some exposure to the game with the slate's highest total.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($8,100)
Everything runs through Gilgeous-Alexander for the Thunder. While he hasn't scored more than 46.25 DK points yet this season, he hasn't scored less than 39.25. His value is safe and ceiling games will come.
De'Aaron Fox ($7,800)
Fox is in a good spot tonight and makes perfect sense as a run back in lineup constructions with Rockets. He's scored at least 40 DK points in three of four games and will have multiple big nights this season. If tonight is the night, I don't want to miss it.
Reggie Bullock ($4,600)
Watch for Alec Burks news because Bullock played 41 minutes and put up 30.75 DK points when Burks sat out on Tuesday. On a slate devoid of cheap value, he would be a reasonable option should Burks miss again.
Marvin Bagley ($5,300)
Bagley has yet to play more than 27 minutes so far this season but his salary remains low. The Kings have the second-highest implied team total on the slate and Bagley has the upside to put up an optimal score for GPPs.
