This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
If you rolled with my recommendations on Wednesday, you crushed your cash games and likely doubled your money in the GPPs. Thursday's slate presents a whole new set of challenges, so let's keep the streak going! DraftKings has excluded the early NO/SAC game from the featured slate, so we will focus on the five-game offering that locks at 4 p.m. ET.
SLATE OVERVIEW
TARGET GAMES - BOLD
FADE GAMES - ITALIC
MIL vs. MIA (+9.0) O/U: 222.5
PHO vs. IND (-2) O/U: 229.0
DAL vs. LAC (-4.5) O/U: 228.0
DEN vs. POR (-4) O/U: 231.5
HOU vs. LAL (-1) O/U: 227.5
(odds subject to change)
As I said on Wednesday, it's time to start hedging your bets on teams that don't need help from the seeding games. We've seen adjustments from the Bucks and the Lakers, and it wouldn't surprise me if we saw more of this as we head into next week. However, I do feel that after the Lakers' poor outing on Wednesday, they're going to need a boost of confidence. That's why I am endorsing the HOU/LAL contest as an outlier from that concept. You'll find a lot of firepower for Houston, and a weak frontcourt for the Lakers to attack. You can never be too sure about situations like this, which is why I am glad it is the last game on the slate. If any elites are going to get reduced minutes, DraftKings' late-swap option will allow us to find out and adjust our builds if necessary. I am mostly fading the MIL/MIA game with a couple of notable exceptions, which I will entertain later in the article.
INJURY SITUATIONS TO MONITOR
Russell Westbrook (quad) - QUESTIONABLE
Usually, I would assume he'd still play, but these are uncharted waters we're navigating. The Rockets could elect to sit him just to be safe, and if he does, a certain bearded All-Star would see a huge potential boost (more on him in a minute).
Jamal Murray (hamstring) - QUESTIONABLE
Gary Harris (hip) - OUT
Will Barton (knee) - OUT
Who knows when we will see Murray again? It could be Thursday, but in case it isn't, Monte Morris ($4,700) will be his replacement. Morris is not someone I'm endorsing, however. Denver's big story continues to be Michael Porter Jr. ($6,400), who I endorsed last night and am going to the well with again tonight. I still can't believe he's still this cheap, and despite his incredibly chalky status, he's getting monstrous exposure in my lineups.
Jimmy Butler (foot) - OUT
Goran Dragic (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE
Here comes the Miami exception I was discussing. While I think the public will flock to more popular options, I will roll with Duncan Robinson ($5,000). I like him so much in this spot that he's probably going to hit 70% exposure in my lineups. His three-point shot has been on point in the bubble, and he isn't afraid to launch it early and often. Milwaukee has a staunch defense, but they've been mediocre against defending the perimeter, and that's where Robinson lives. Butler and Robinson frequently share the stage, but Butler has spent considerable time in the backcourt during bubble play. I think Robinson sees a more significant boost than Jae Crowder ($4,400), who is expected to replace him in the lineup. Dragic's potential absence only helps Robinson's cause, but even if Dragic plays, it isn't going to temper my endorsement.
Patrick Beverley (calf) - OUT
Unlike times where DFS players are stung by a miraculous return by PatBev, I think it's safe to say that he won't take the floor. Any doubts I may have had about Reggie Jackson were assuaged in his game against New Orleans, but now that Lou Williams ($5,000) is back, I have my doubts about how effective Jackson will be. Sweet Lou showed some rust in his first game back, but I expect him to come back strong in this game with Beverley inactive.
ELITE PLAYERS
Ok, this is going to be the toughest decision you'll make on the slate. What's that tough decision, you say?
The decision to fade all of them.
I think there are viable reasons why it's feasible to go just below the elite level and get everything you need there, and lower. I am nixing Giannis Antetokounmpo right off the bat. I don't trust his usage moving forward. I would think about James Harden ($10,700) if Westbrook sits, but otherwise, I don't think he'll get the 53.5 DKFP I need to hit 5x value, especially when you consider the previous lackluster performances (by his standards) he's had against the Lakers? Luka Doncic ($11,300) could probably get you the 56.5 DKFP you need to get 5x value, but rostering him gives you only $5500 per player for your remaining seven slots. In my opinion, that leaves a ton of value lying on the table. I've also made my thoughts about LeBron James and Anthony Davis clear in my previous articles. I think the game against Houston could be the last time we see the duo logging their usual minutes, but I think the variance is too broad in relation to their cost. Additionally, with all of the elites I just mentioned, there isn't much incentive to win. That's why I'd much rather spend up on Damian Lillard ($9,700) who will force his team into the playoffs, even if he has to carry them on his shoulders. You could say the same about Jusuf Nurkic ($8,900), who's enjoying a huge renaissance and is one of my favorite big men on the slate tonight. I can't fault Lillard or Nurkic at this price, but my exposure will probably be very low. Follow me down the chalky path, and I'll show you where we can make up for all this elite exclusion.
EXPECTED CHALK AND OTHER TARGETS
T.J. Warren, IND ($8,400) @ PHO
For Warren, it isn't about riding the hot hand anymore. Simply put, he is the offensive engine for the Pacers going forward, and despite a matchup against a surprisingly tough Suns squad, I don't see the needle moving much for this guy. You only need 42 DKFP to make him worth the cost, and he's beaten that number by a country mile every time he's played. This game will be a fierce battle as both teams are jockeying for playoff position, which makes Warren a lock for as many minutes as he can handle.
Paul George, LAC ($7,700) @ DAL
George can often start slow, so if you're one of those habitual score refreshers, he can give you heart palpitations. He's come through brilliantly in the bubble, however. He'll be forced to play maximum minutes in a game that will be a little too close for comfort for the Clippers. They have Denver breathing down their neck in the West, so the motivation is there to retain their #2 seed, and Dallas, while safe, could catch up to Houston if the Rockets collapse. While the first part of the season is way in the rear-view mirror, George racked up a sizeable 47 DKFP in only 29 minutes when he last faced the Mavs.
Bam Adebayo, MIA ($7,800) @ MIL
Adebayo will be called upon to pick up some slack with Jimmy Butler out, and I'm a big fan of his potential relative to his price. He can also claim a positive rate of return against the Bucks - he double-doubled twice against them earlier in the season. Bam found his way into about half of my preliminary builds, especially in cash.
Robert Covington, HOU ($6,500) vs. LAL
I think his roster percentage will be a little low after his performance against Portland, but a 2-of-11 shooting day simply isn't sustainable for Covington, and I think he's primed for a rebound. In another spot, I would say that his price is a little bit high, and I still believe there is some risk for him to fall short of the 32 DKFP we need to make him worth the cost. The upside is there, however, and that's why he's someone I'll look to as I fill out GPP builds on Thursday.
As we move down, see above about Michael Porter Jr. ($6,400).
Also consider: CJ McCollum, POR ($7,900) @ DEN
VALUE PICKS
Cameron Johnson, PHO ($4,900) vs. IND
Johnson has come through as an excellent value in almost every bubble contest, although a value beating game is entirely dependent on this three-point shot. He fell short with a 3-of-10 night from beyond the arc against the Clippers, but if you take a closer look, you'll see that he's converted 48 percent of his shots from long range while in the bubble, and that's a metric that I'm comfortable with.
Danuel House, HOU ($4,900) vs. LAL
I see very little reason to doubt House in what should be a fast-paced affair. The undersized Houston frontcourt needs all the help it can get, and House has been a reliable source of production in the bubble, averaging 17.7 points and 4.3 rebounds. He is also good for an occasional block or steal, and he's ramped up his three-point production considerably. He's made 14 attempts over three games in the bubble and converted 48 percent of his shots.
T.J. McConnell, IND ($4,000) @ PHO
Even with Malcolm Brogdon back, McConnell can make an impact very quickly. While in the bubble, he's averaged an impressive 1.34 DKFP per minute, and if we find out before lock that Brogdon will be limited, there's no question that I'll head in this direction.
Also consider: Aaron Holiday, IND ($4,800) @ PHO
That's it for Thursday! As usual, check back in with us as games lock so you can optimize your lineups. RotoWire's advanced lineups tool is a great resource for everything you need. Enjoy!
