This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
This slate kicks off a bit earlier than usual with a 6:00 p.m. tip-off. Let's dive right into Sunday's action.
SLATE OVERVIEW
TOR (-5.5) vs. IND O/U: 218.5
DEN (13.5) vs. MIN O/U: 221.5
OKC (-5.5) vs. SA O/U: 221.5
WAS (-2) @ CHI O/U: 226.5
NO (-9.5) @ GS O/U: 239
POR (-5.5) vs. DET O/U: 223
With the NO/GS as the only matchup above 230, we will be forced to look at some lower-paced games to fill out our lineups. Luckily, our injury section provides us with plenty of value-beating candidates across all the matchups.
INJURY SITUATIONS TO MONITOR
Damian Lillard (groin) OUT
Obviously, this opens things up for C.J. McCollum ($8,400), whose salary has risen considerably since this injury cropped up. Lillard's direct replacement is a bit of a crapshoot, so rather than target Gary Trent or Anfernee Simons, I think it's wiser to just give a boost to the rest of the starters.
D'Angelo Russell (knee) OUT
As if losing Karl-Anthony Towns wasn't bad enough, the T-Wolves are a shell of their former selves with Russell off the floor. The team will likely go with Jordan McLaughlin ($4,300) at the point, but there's some volatility with this pick with Jarret Culver on the roster - the winds could change in his direction as well. I think Malik Beasley ($5,800) and Josh Okogie ($4,300) are going to ultimately be better options to absorb Russell's production. While we are on the T-Wolves, I'm also a fan of taking a shot with Juancho Hernangomez ($5,100) while Towns is out.
Victor Oladipo (back) QUESTIONABLE
Although he's officially questionable, I doubt we'll see him on the floor tonight. I'm going to give a nod to Jeremy Lamb ($4,800) as the guy to get the biggest boost here. T.J. Warren ($6,400) should also get a sizable increase in usage.
Draymond Green (hip) OUT
Marquese Chriss (calf) QUESTIONABLE
I'd keep my ear to the ground about Chriss, because his status would alter any pivot endorsement. I'd be most prone to give a nod to Eric Paschall ($4,400) here. And if Chriss is out as well, I'd have a hard time getting away from Juan Toscano-Anderson's ($3,300) bargain price.
ELITE PLAYERS
Nikola Jokic, DEN ($10,200) vs. MIN
Jokic is likely to lay the hammer down on a Minnesota team playing without Towns. It's about as obvious as a plus-EV play will get for the star center, who hasn't seen a DKFP total below 40 in quite some time. While Jokic is expensive, his solid floor means he isn't going to hurt you too badly with a bad shooting night, and the potential boost in this exploitable spot is just too good to pass up.
Zach LaVine, CHI ($9,100) vs. WAS
This is likely to be a messy game on both sides of the ball, but I'm going to roll with LaVine and his snazzy 53.1 DKFP average over three games against the Wizards. He decimated them with a 41-point, nine-rebound performance 11 days ago and I see no reason why he couldn't explode with something similar at home tonight. LaVine might not get 41, but he's still a great candidate to get 5x value.
Zion Williamson, NO ($8,500) @ GS
I'd be happier if Zion was just $500 cheaper, but I don't think it matters much with the Warriors potentially without Draymond and Marquese Chriss tonight. A glance to Brandon Ingram ($6,900) shows how much he's been devalued with Williamson's return, and he's at a salary point that I'm very tempted to target in lieu of Zion here. The $1,600 price gap is probably wider than the production difference tonight, so I'm not averse to a stack.
Also consider: Pascal Siakam, TOR ($9,200) vs. IND
EXPECTED CHALK AND OTHER TARGETS
Don't forget about guys like McCollum, Warren and the potential Minnesota targets I mentioned in the injury report. This section will be a little slim due to giving them mention earlier, but they are all likely to be very chalky tonight.
Lonzo Ball, NO ($7,300) @ GS
I sense a good game on the horizon for Ball. He picked up right where he left off before the All-Star break with another good shooting night by converting 6-of-11 and 3-of-5 from beyond the arc. In two games against the Warriors, he averaged just over 33 DKFP. And while that doesn't meet value at this price, Ball didn't have Zion as an assist magnet in those games.
DeMar DeRozan, SA ($7,200) @ OKC
DeRozan is priced right for this matchup, as his two-game average against the Thunder falls right at 5x value. I'm not surprised to see the 5.5 spread here in the Thunder's favor, but strong second-halves of the season are in the Spurs' DNA and I'm inclined to give San Antonio a bit more credit. I'm ideally looking for something in the 40 DKFP for DeRozan, but I'd be ok with a little less if I take him in a cash lineup.
Steven Adams, OKC ($6,800) vs. SA
Adams was a man possessed two days ago against the Nuggets, as he pounded them with a superb 19-point, 17-rebound showing that marked one of his best games of the season. It looks like he is hot out of the gate after a week's rest. And despite the wealth of big men on the slate tonight, I'm inclined to give Adams a bit more exposure than I normally would. I expect the public to follow suit.
Also consider: Christian Wood, DET ($7,400) @ POR, Thaddeus Young, CHI ($6,500) vs. WAS
VALUE PLAYS
Bruce Brown, DET ($5,600) @ POR
The Pistons tinker with their starting five more than I'd like, but it seems like Brown is getting plenty of opportunity with or without a starting tag. His 41 DKFP in 31 minutes against the Bucks was an encouraging sign, and the Pistons could have a chance to exploit a backcourt that's lacking Damian Lillard.
Will Barton, DEN ($5,400) vs. MIN
I am one of many, many seasonal players who's happy to see Barton back as playoff time nears. I think his DFS value is also on point tonight, as he looked close to his old self against the Thunder two days ago. Barton logged 31 minutes in that game, which matches his usual load.
Rui Hachimura, WAS ($5,300) @ CHI
Zach LaVine will be forced to do it all tonight, and the injury-plagued Bulls' frontcourt will only have Daniel Gafford defending the basket. The Wizards should find a way to score inside, and I admit a bit of bias with Hachimura, who's probably the most underrated rookie in the league this season. The Wizards are actually FAVORED in this one, and the O/U also isn't bad.
Jordan Poole, GS ($4,600) vs. NO
Poole has set up shop at the point as the Warriors await the return of Stephen Curry. And as long as he's at this price, I think he could be an every-night candidate to beat value. It looks like Ky Bowman is going to be the backup, as Poole shouldered the load with 32 minutes against the Rockets in their last game. Thanks to the high O/U, I have high hopes for multiple targets in this contest.
Kevon Looney, GS ($3,000) vs. NO
Just a guess, but if Chriss is out, we should probably see a bit more from Looney. I would ONLY go this way if Chriss doesn't take the floor as Green's absence isn't enough to merit this play, but the veteran only needs 16 DKFP to beat value. While I think Juan Toscano-Anderson is a better value, Looney could be a great tournament flyer.
