This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
As is usually the case on the weekend, DraftKings has excluded the early games on their featured slate, so for this article, we will exclude the PHO/DET and ORL/LAL games and instead focus on the six games available for a 6 PM ET tip-off on Sunday.
First, I'll wrap up my action last night. With Davis ruled out, I was faced with a decision. Do I spread that money around or pivot to another high-priced target? When Chris Paul was announced as a scratch, the choice was clear. I pivoted to Harden, and it was definitely the right call. My cash games sailed through with Harden, Randle, and Beal as my anchors and nailing picks like Mason Plumlee were crucial in getting there. Only one of my GPPs came through, as missed calls on Cauley-Stein hurt my cause, but with every cash game in, the day ended in the plus column.
The Kings are the only team on the tail-end of a back-to-back on Sunday, so you've got 11 teams coming off multiple days of rest. In constructing your lineups, you'll find that despite the moderate size of this slate, your assortment of players is somewhat uninspiring. We have only one player going for 10k or higher, so you have a reasonable chance of putting together a decent lineup without holding your nose.
On the injury front, there isn't much to report aside from the usual suspects. The situation in Miami is mostly the same with both Goran Dragic (knee) and Tyler Johnson (hamstring) out, so Josh Richardson ($6,800) emerges as the chalkiest play. I'm not exposing myself to risk against Toronto aside from Richardson and maybe Rodney McGruder ($4,800, who should draw a start today. While Wayne Ellington should appeal to some, I'm risk-averse to the matchup. Should a blowout occur here, any number of Miami guys could see time.
Below are some players with questionable tags. Monitor these spots closely, and here are some pivots if they don't play.
Jimmy Butler (ankle) – PIVOT Landry Shamet ($3,000)
Kent Bazemore (ankle) – PIVOT Vince Carter ($3,200), Dewayne Dedmon ($4,400)
The late game between the Clippers and Trail Blazers carry the highest O/U of the night, so you'll likely see some exposure here in my picks below. Conversely, I'm a bit wary of the NY/MEM game with an eight-point spread and an O/U of 208. David Fizdale continues to confound us with his backcourt, so I'm hesitant to explore that situation further, but there are some chalky Memphis plays like Marc Gasol ($8,500), Mike Conley ($8,100) and Jaren Jackson, Jr. ($5,900) that merit some consideration.
I'll now select three players per position accompanied by a small list of additional players at each spot. When possible, I'll include one top-shelf player, a mid-range target, and a low-cost value play for each category.
GUARDS
Kemba Walker, CHA at ATL ($9,800): If you decide to spend high at guard, you have a tough decision. While Lillard sets up well against the Clippers, he only put up 40 DKFP against them in their last meeting. I also think Ben Simmons is too expensive. I'm going with Kemba on the likelihood that this game will be closer than it appears, and it should meet the O/U of 230. Walker's averaged 55 DKFP per game over the last four games, and that's the kind of score we need to justify this price.
C.J. McCollum, POR vs. LAC ($6,900): I do want some exposure to this game, and McCollum is a bargain at under 7K. The expected pace and narrow odds give me hope that McCollum will get looks early and often. The problem with McCollum is that his production is very shot-dependent, but he's converting almost 50 percent of his shots over the past ten days and drilling from beyond the arc at a 44 percent clip.
Bogdan Bogdanovic, UTA at SAC ($4,400): I think it's likely that we'll see plenty of Utah's second unit in this game. I didn't include Bogdan as a Mitchell pivot because I believe his fantasy value stands on its own in this game independent of Mitchell's status. He posted 31 DKFP in his last matchup versus the Kings and delivered one of his most diverse stat lines of the season. With so many big names to choose from with the Jazz, I think his ownership will be favorable.
Other guards to consider: Kyle Lowry, TOR vs. MIA ($8,000), Trae Young, ATL vs. CHA ($6,500), Allen Crabbe, BKN vs. PHI ($3,900)
FORWARDS
Kawhi Leonard, TOR vs. MIA ($9,400): This position is tough tonight, but with the expectation that he will play, I have to give you Leonard, who has the chalkiest floor you'll find when he suits up. For those of you that think this is a bit of a cop-out, I'm merely giving you the options for where you can spend up. One thing going for Leonard is that when he decides to play, he logs as many minutes as he can handle, regardless of the game's status.
Joe Ingles, UTA at SAC ($5,800): I mentioned Jaren Jackson earlier in this range, but I like Ingles almost as much. He's an ironclad guarantee to see 30 or more minutes, even if the game gets out of hand. He put up 34 DKFP against the Kings when they last met, and if Mitchell has an issue, Ingles is a great candidate to absorb that opportunity for production. Additionally, the Kings have ranked dead-last versus Ingles' position over the last five games.
Noah Vonleh, NY at MEM ($5,300): He's the only Knick I'll favor tonight. It's hard to ignore his 40-plus DKFP scores against quality opponents over the past three games, all of which resulted in double-doubles. They will desperately need his athletic ability under the basket versus Marc Gasol, but a bright spot for this selection is that the Grizzlies rank 29th in offensive rebound efficiency. This should result in another double-digit rebound day from Vonleh.
Other forwards to consider: Montrezl Harrell, LAC at POR ($7,300), Derrick Favors, UTA at SAC ($5,000), JaMychal Green, MEM vs. NY ($4,200)
CENTERS
Here's the deal with Joel Embiid ($10,900). You're picking him on the chance that he'll explode for something in the 50-60 DKFP range. We've seen nights like this six times over the past 10 games. Those aren't bad odds, but we're talking about a 20-point difference between Embiid on the low end versus a guy that could do the same for anywhere from 2 to 3K less. There's no doubt that he sets up well against the Nets, but if you believe in a lower guy that can provide Embiid's floor, I'd go that way and spend up at guard. If you're opting for a guy like Marc Gasol for 2K less at $8,900 – essentially, you're ponying up a lot of cash, and you might as well be playing Embiid, who has a better matchup. Here are two lower-priced targets that could work in this slot if you need to spend down:
Rudy Gobert, UTA at SAC ($7,300): Gobert hit Embiid's low end with 43 DKFP in his first meeting against the Kings, and the opportunity is there for a repeat performance. The Kings are playing on no rest after a tough loss against the Warriors, and Sacramento ranks 29th against opposing centers over the past five games. This is a reasonable price at this position with this kind of expected output.
Serge Ibaka, TOR vs. MIA ($6,200): Ibaka is unlikely to explode, but if you can squeeze 35 DKFP out of this position and absorb the loss with a high-scoring guard, your chances of a score don't diminish that much. My only worry here is an increased presence from Jonas Valanciunas if the game gets out of hand. Over the last five games, Ibaka has averaged a solid 32 DKFP per game.
Other centers to consider:Hassan Whiteside, MIA at TOR ($8,300)
