This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
As is often the case on the weekend, DraftKings has cut the early game from their featured slate, so we'll be excluding the Grizzlies-Timberwolves matchup in this column and focusing on the four games that begin at 3 PM Eastern.
I suffered only my fifth net loss of the season on Saturday. This was mostly due to high exposure to LeBron and Jimmy Butler, was represented about 60 percent of my cash lineups. My analysis of D.J. Augustin was spot-on, and he helped me out with 90 percent exposure, and a quarter of my cash lineups came in on the backs of Randle and Holiday. But alas, a net loss. It happens.
Before we begin, I want to mention something that isn't exactly a strategy tip, but more of a cautionary tale that I've learned over my many years of playing DFS, and it's something that happened in spades last night.
Don't over-tinker with your lineup unless you have to.
Of course, if a guy is out, you have to pivot. That's not what I mean. Often our initial analysis is the right one. Throughout the day you'll hear things that make you reassess, and often it will be the wrong move. Mike Muscala is a good example. We heard mid-day that he'd be starting. Or Cameron Payne, who got the green light to start ahead of LaVine. Let's say that earlier in the day I locked in Fred VanVleet or Danny Green on the assumption that Leonard would be out. Should I alter my initial hunch and move to a high risk/reward guy just because he's starting? it's something I might do selectively with GPPs, but for cash, set it and forget it, unless someone is scratched. Late pivots to seemingly alluring plays can mess with your mental game. It'll make you second-guess. You'll get frustrated. This is supposed to be fun, right? Try to keep it that way.
OK, moving on. On slim slates like Sunday's, the value of GPPs diminishes automatically as your EV on these games will shrink due to the increased likelihood of identical lineups. I tend to go more toward single-entry contests on slates like this and bump up my cash exposure.
On the injury front, the injuries to Steph Curry and Draymond Green are front-and-center. Upon studying last night's box score, it appears that Klay Thompson ($7,300) and Quinn Cook ($5,200) were the best pivots, and Damion Lee ($3,000) was the surprise beneficiary. It is the second game of a back-to-back, and the Spurs will slow the pace down so keep those facts in mind when considering the Warriors tonight.
Game I like: POR at WAS: I'll probably maximize my exposure to this game as the narrow spread, and 222.5 O/U are good indicators of a high-scoring affair.
Game I don't like: NY at ORL: This game should be somewhat messy, and the Magic are on a back-to-back. There are a couple of reasonable spots on the Knicks end, however.
I'll now select three players at each position and throw in a couple of non-highlighted targets in each category. When possible, I will try to include a top-shelf player, a mid-range target and a low-cost value play.
GUARDS
Damian Lillard, POR at WAS ($9,300): Lillard outscored John Wall in their first meeting this season, and I think history will repeat itself on Sunday. This is a no=brainer, so I'm not opposed to Wall in a GPP, but for cash anchors, Lillard sets up as a better play. He was a disappointment in his last outing against the Grizzlies, but I think that's an outlier.
Tim Hardaway, NY at ORL ($7,300): Over the past five games, the Magic rank dead-last versus opposing off-guards. Hardaway shot a dreadful 2-for-12 when these two teams met earlier in the season, and you can bet Hardaway remembers it. There's already a reliable floor here, and potential for a game in the low 40's (DKFP), which I'm more than happy to take.
MIAMI PIVOTS for Goran Dragic ($6,100): Dragic could return today, but in the event he doesn't, I think a Miami pivot has to find a place in most lineups, the most beneficial being Josh Richardson ($6,700). Moving down, I'm higher on Tyler Johnson ($4,500) than I am on Justise Winslow ($5,100) due to recent scoring trends for both players. If Dragic plays and has no limitations (a big if), I'm comfortable playing him against a Laker defense that struggles against opposing backcourts.
Other guards to consider: Bradley Beal, POR at WAS ($7,400)
FORWARDS
DeMar DeRozan, SA vs. GS ($8,800): When DeRozan was a Raptor, he tangled with the Warriors twice in 2017-18 and outperformed projections on both occasions. A slightly compromised Warriors squad should set up well for DeRozan despite the potentially slow place of this matchup. He's likely going to be one-half of my cash anchor on Sunday, with one of my guard picks taking the other half.
Otto Porter, Jr, WAS vs. POR ($4,900): Porter played 43 minutes and put up 35.5 DKFP against Portland in their first meeting, and when you consider his opposition at the position (Jake Layman and Al-Farouq Aminu), I can understand his past success. You're going to need a solid floor at this price, and Porter is the perfect target to fill that spot.
Lance Stephenson, LAL at MIA ($3,300): Someone needed to pick up the slack in Rajon Rondo's (hand) absence, and Stephenson was the guy last night. Anyone in this price range will carry a modicum of risk, but Lance immediately changes the script of the game when he's on the floor, and a difference-maker like that can have a lot of upside. It's all about playing time here. If he can log 20 minutes or more, he has great potential. In two of the Lakers' three back-to-back segments, he's shown up with decent production on the tail end.
Other forwards to consider: Evan Fournier, ORL vs. NY ($5,400), Jonas Jerebko, GS at SA ($3,900)
CENTERS
Hassan Whiteside, MIA vs. LAL ($8,100): Let's face it, it's hard to argue with six straight double-doubles. You'll be hard-pressed to find that kind of consistency at 8K on this slate, but you'll need to compromise your guard picks to go here. Still, that may be the road less traveled on Sunday, as I suspect most people will try to spend down at center. These two teams have yet to meet, but the Lakers rank a surprising 27th in defensive rebounding percentage. Whiteside could benefit from any errant shots by his teammates.
Dwight Howard, WAS vs. POR ($6,600): Howard is at his best on multiple days of rest, and I can't dip to McGee after the Whiteside endorsement. He put up 52 DKFP against the Nets on Friday, so he's definitely dialed in. He was not yet ready for action when these two teams last met, so he'll be an added element for Portland to contend with. I think the floor here Is pretty reliable when you analyze Jusuf Nurkic's recent defensive totals, and Howard's history against Nurkic is favorable.
Mitchell Robinson, NY at ORL ($3,800): I'm aware that this is a punt of the highest order, but if you need to go way down at center, huge nights from Lillard or DeRozan can offset the 20-25 DKFP you could get from Robinson in this one. He's the primary reason why Enes Kanter's reliability has slacked off, and he put up 27 DKFP against Nikola Vucevic when they last met. I may have to hold my nose a bit upon clicking him, but if I find myself overspending, I could very well end up here.
Other centers to consider: Jusuf Nurkic, POR at WAS ($6,600)
