This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
To capitalize on DraftKings' featured slate, we are excluding the Hornets-Pistons matchup and focusing on the remaining five games available on Sunday.
The Knicks, Bucks, Rockets, and Lakers are all on back-to-back games today, which is an unusually high number for such a small slate. What's notable about these teams is that they are playing with shorter turnaround times than usual, which is usually the case with weekend back-to-backs. The Bucks especially have it rough as they make a trip from San Antonio to Denver for a high-altitude game with no rest. These situations are worth considering, especially when you're stuck with a decision and need a metric to break a tie.
I'm a fan of one of the games involving a back-to-back, however. The highest O/U of the night belongs to the Hawks-Lakers game, with a whopping break line of 241. The addition of Tyson Chandler to the Lakers has left former value target JaVale McGee somewhat disposable, and Lonzo Ball's dreadful night yesterday gives me pause, so it might just be time to go to the well with LeBron James ($10,700) tonight, even though that seems like a horrible cop-out. I don't mean to diss Chandler, but I feel like his arrival knocks McGee out of consideration and affects Kyle Kuzma and Brandon Ingram to a lesser degree. With all this n mind, I'm inclined to give Rajon Rondo ($5,500) a look for exposure to this game. The real value here goes to Trae Young ($7,000) on the other end. Young will be well-rested and ready to play at a high level. Omari Spellman ($4,400) is also trending up and could be a great value on Sunday. He's coming off two straight double-doubles and demonstrates that a high ceiling is possible for the rookie.
DFS favorite Domantas Sabonis is dealing with an ankle injury and could sit out, and if that holds true I'm naming Kyle O'Quinn ($3,000) as my ultimate punt play on Sunday. Sabonis was last out on October 20th and on that night, O'Quinn erupted for 18 points and eight rebounds, which Is excellent value at a rock-bottom price. If Sabonis sits, I'm pivoting to O'Quinn to free up cap space.
I'll now select three players at each position along with a small additional list of players that holds equal weight in my predictions. When possible, I will endeavor to include a top-shelf player, a mid-range target and a low-cost value play at each spot.
GUARDS
C.J. McCollum, POR vs. BOS ($6,200): There's value on the other end as well, and I like McCollum as a low-cost alternative to Lillard. Last season McCollum and Lillard engaged in a see-saw sort of exercise where one of them would tank, and the other one would light up for a big game, but there's a synergy between the two of them now that gives McCollum every-night potential. In terms of pure explosiveness, I think it's still a bit of a crapshoot, but McCollum's floor is a lot more reliable so far this season.
Monte Morris, DEN vs. MIL ($3,700): Morris came through for me earlier in the week and if you read my column and followed my advice you also enjoyed a big day from the second-year guard. While the Bucks are on a roll this season, they're playing this one with little rest, and I think the Nuggets will pounce on this vulnerable situation. Down the stretch, I think the second unit will see more action. Look for Morris to easily meet value at this price.
Other guards to consider: Damian Lillard, POR vs. BOS ($8,300), Eric Fournier, ORL at NY ($6,500) ***Also see Trae Young above.
FORWARDS
James makes all the more sense once you look at the forward options on this slate.
Jayson Tatum, BOS at POR, ($6,200): Tatum followed up a poor outing in Phoenix with a 41 DKFP game against the Jazz, and the return of Kyrie Irving should energize the Celtics. Unlike other players, Tatum's usage is pretty much the same regardless of Irving's status, so his floor is still dependable. Tatum also plays better on the road, with a DKFP differential of +1.2 DKFP and a slightly higher field-goal percentage.
Taurean Prince, ATL at LAL ($5,800): Prince had an additional day to rest his ankle, and he should be prepared to assume a more significant role against the Lakers on Sunday. He's been a bit streaky, but with the Lakers on a back-to-back, I think Prince will be able to keep things close. The third-year Baylor product is currently averaging 14.6 points and 4.8 rebounds per game.
Gary Clark, HOU vs. IND ($3,700): This pick is entirely dependent on Carmelo Anthony's status, but if Anthony is limited in any way I think Clark is in an excellent position to meet value with Gerald Green (ankle) sidelined. The undrafted rookie has been almost an afterthought when you consider this year's loaded rookie class, but he should be in line for more opportunities, especially if Anthony gets dealt.
Other forwards to consider: Aaron Gordon, ORL at NY ($7,700); Marcus Morris, BOS at POR ($5,800)
CENTERS
Enes Kanter, NY vs. ORL ($6,600): I would like to go with Jokic, but I think he is too expensive for this slate tonight. As a result, I'll go with Kanter, who is in an odd situation with Mitchell Robinson at the five. I still don't quite get why Robinson is earning the start, as I don't believe the rookie has earned a shot at the position. His performances have been good but not spectacular, and I think Kanter still has plenty of gas left in the tank. Despite coming off the bench, he'll still see somewhere in the neighborhood of 27-30 minutes.
Clint Capela, HOU vs. IND ($6,200): Capela is as consistent as they come, and Indiana will be short-handed without Domantas Sabonis. Over the last six games, Capela has played remarkably well, averaging 38.6 DKFP per game over that span. Houston is pretty thin at this position so Capela regularly sees 30-35 minutes of court time, which should be more than enough to put up an impressive stat line on Sunday.
Paul Millsap, DEN vs., MIL ($5,100): Millsap's price has continued to slide, but he's so cheap right now, he's worth taking a flier on with hopes that he can put together a 30 DKFP stat line. He's especially shown the capacity to go big in close games, and Sunday's game fits that description with Denver giving the Bucks 3.5 points.
