This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
We have one of the most unorthodox slate environments of the season thus far on tap Saturday night, as a maelstrom of conventional injuries and COVID-19 absences have conspired to completely decimate the Warriors and Nets in particular, turning those two star-laden clubs into proverbial G League rosters temporarily. We have some depressed projected totals due to the multitude of big-name absences. Identifying the correct value plays that will see much more opportunity than usual will likely be the key to success.
Slate Overview
New York Knicks at Boston Celtics (-4.5) (O/U: 210.5 points)
Orlando Magic at Brooklyn Nets (-6) (O/U: 210.0 points)
Golden State Warriors at Toronto Raptors (-9) (O/U: 204.0 points)
Los Angeles Clippers (-6) at Oklahoma City Thunder (O/U: 209.5 points)
Cleveland Cavaliers (-3) at Milwaukee Bucks (O/U: 214.5 points)
Washington Wizards at Utah Jazz (-10) (O/U: 224.0 points)
The Knicks-Celtics, Clippers-Thunder and Wizards-Jazz clashes are the ones set to come off most like "normal" matchups, as those teams will mostly have their usual players on the floor. The effect of multiple absences is most prevalent in the Warriors-Raptors line, with Golden State set to take the floor with only Kevon Looney as far as their usual first unit is concerned. Meanwhile, the Magic are in such dire straits that even a Nets team without James Harden, Kevin Durant and LaMarcus Aldridge, among others, is still favored by six points.
The Jazz are the biggest favorites of the night as of Saturday morning, a line that arguably would have been at least a couple points smaller earlier in the season before the Wizards began to spiral. The other notable spread belongs to the Cavaliers-Bucks tilt, where Cleveland is a road favorite precisely because of the COVID absences of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bobby Portis, as well as another possible one for Khris Middleton.
Injury Situations to Monitor
NOTE: Injury reporting is especially fluid in the NBA, where the status of multiple players can change during the course of a day. Therefore, although the following serves as a foundation for the latest injury report as of the time the article is written, check back throughout the course of the day with RotoWire for the latest news regarding the status of all players on that night's slate, including those carrying injury designations that aren't listed in this section.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL (COVID-19 protocols): OUT
With Antetokounmpo headed for a third straight absence, Jordan Nwora should draw another start at power forward, while the usage for Jrue Holiday should once again be particularly elevated.
Stephen Curry, GSW (rest): OUT
In Curry's absence, Gary Payton should draw the start at point guard.
James Harden, BRO (COVID-19 protocols): OUT
In Harden's ongoing absence, Cam Thomas could draw a start at point guard, although Patty Mills could also shift to the role of primary ball handler.
Kevin Durant, BRO (ankle): OUT
In Durant's absence, Blake Griffin could draw the start at power forward.
Paul George, LAC (elbow): QUESTIONABLE
If George sits out another contest, Luke Kennard could remain in the starting lineup.
Donovan Mitchell, UTA (illness): QUESTIONABLE
If Mitchell were to sit out, Joe Ingles would likely enter the starting five, while the usage of the remaining members of the first unit would see a notable boost.
Khris Middleton, MIL (knee): GTD
If Middleton suits up, he'll be set for even more usage than usual due to the absences of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bobby Portis. Pat Connaughton should also see plenty of minutes off the bench even if Middleton plays.
Other notable injuries:
Andrew Wiggins, GSW (ankle): OUT
Draymond Green, GSW (hip): OUT
Jordan Poole, GSW (COVID-19 protocols): OUT
RJ Barrett, NYK (COVID-19 protocols): GTD
OG Anunoby, TOR (hip): QUESTIONABLE
Cole Anthony, ORL (ankle): QUESTIONABLE
Wendell Carter, ORL (lower leg): DOUBTFUL
Evan Mobley, CLE (hip): QUESTIONABLE
Al Horford, BOS (COVID-19 protocols): OUT
Mo Bamba, ORL (ankle): OUT
Kyrie Irving, BRO (personal): OUT
Bobby Portis, MIL (COVID-19 protocols): OUT
Elite Players
We have just two players with five-figure salaries that have a chance to be active for Saturday's slate – Paul George ($10,500) and Julius Randle ($10,100).
George's status will have to be monitored throughout the day, and coming off a four-game absence, he could have somewhat compromised conditioning if he does play. If he does suit up, he'd have a favorable matchup against a Thunder team that's ranked in the bottom 10 of the league in offensive efficiency allowed to two-guards.
Randle has scored 48.8 and 39.6 DK points in his last two games and notably racked up 62.5 in his one prior meeting with the Celtics this season back on Opening Night.
Expected Chalk
In addition to the players just mentioned in the prior section, other likely chalk plays include:
Jayson Tatum, BOS ($9,800)
Tatum scored 44.8 DK points against the Knicks in his previous encounter with New York and has 49 DK points or more in seven of his last eight games.
Bradley Beal, WAS ($9,600)
Beal has a very safe floor and boasts three tallies of more than 40 DK points in his last six games alone. He's also shot 46.0 percent overall on the road.
Jaylen Brown, BOS ($9,100)
Brown has over 35 DK points in each of his last two games and should continue to see elevated usage with Al Horford and potentially Dennis Schroder out Saturday.
Fred VanVleet, TOR ($9,000)
VanVleet is one of the few top-shelf guards that's healthy Saturday and is coming off having scored 46 to 54.5 DK points in three of his last four games.
Jrue Holiday, MIL ($8,200)
Holiday broke out for 55 and 56.3 DK points in the first two games of Antetokounmpo's absence and should continue to enjoy sky-high usage Saturday, especially if Middleton also misses another contest.
Key Values
Blake Griffin, BRO vs. ORL ($5,200)
Griffin is one of three value plays getting the nod from me because he'll have a wholly depleted roster around him. As mentioned earlier, none of Durant, Harden or Aldridge will play Saturday, and frontcourt mate Nicolas Claxton is also questionable due to a wrist injury. Griffin owns a 26.3 percent usage rate and averages 34.6 DK points per 36 minutes without the trio on the floor this season, and he's provided 32.8 and 31.8 DK points in his last two games, both starts. With the Magic also allowing the fourth-highest offensive efficiency to frontcourt players (83.8 percent) and fifth highest in the paint (60.2 percent) while also likely being down Wendell Carter in addition to Mo Bamba, I like Griffin's chances of overdelivering on his salary.
Damion Lee, GSW at TOR ($3,600)
Lee's salary is nowhere near commensurate to the expanded role he should see Saturday. The young wing already got plenty of valuable experience as a starter two seasons ago when the Warriors were running with a short-handed squad, and this year, he owns a 25.8 percent usage rate and averages 32.6 DK points per 36 minutes with Curry, Poole, Wiggins and Green off the floor. Lee has flashed a ceiling north of 20 DK points this season despite coming off the bench and averaging a modest 19.5 minutes per contest, and he should naturally be in for an exponential bump in playing time Saturday.
Gary Payton, GSW at TOR ($3,300)
Lee's projected starting backcourt mate Payton requires even less of an investment and, as the starting point guard, should also be in a role that far outpaces his current salary. Payton is shooting an outstanding 67.0 percent this season, including 42.1 percent from distance. That efficiency has helped him already deliver over 20 DK points in seven games despite the fact he's averaging just 14 minutes per contest for the season. Payton should be in for a heavy workload Saturday and already sports a 26.2 percent usage rate and average of 1.6 DK points per minute without the Warriors' quartet of missing stars on the floor as well.
ALSO CONSIDER: Marcus Morris, LAC at OKC ($5,700); Nicolas Claxton, BRO vs. ORL ($4,400)
