This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Slate Overview
Today's slate is all about the Rockets at Trail Blazers game. Houston is missing nearly half the team due to COVID-19 protocol -- namely, John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins and Eric Gordon. However, with James Harden ($10,900) and Christian Wood ($5,900) available and expected to play, they could be in store for monster outings and are practically locks. Portland is favored by 7.5 points with an over/under of 226.0 in what's expected to be a highly-targeted matchup.
The other news to look for is the statuses of Russell Westbrook ($10,300) and Davis Bertans ($5,800), who could both be out for rest purposes against the Magic on the front end of a back-to-back. Bertans' playing time is being limited regardless, so even if he plays, he's a low-upside play. Bradley Beal ($9,300) is the obvious pivot if Westbrook is out. That game is the only contest with an over/under over 230 on the slate, so there will likely be value there no matter what happens with Westbrook and Bertans.
Other appealing matchups include:
- 76ers (-8.5) at Knicks. New York doesn't play defense and gave up at ton of shots at the rim in the opener.
- Pacers (-5.0) at Bulls. Chicago was blown out by Atlanta in the opener and the Pacers have a new coach that's playing a more modern style of offense.
- Raptors at Spurs (228.0 over/under). Expected to be a high-scoring game and there's value to be had on Spurs players.
- Timberwolves at Jazz (-9.0), 228.5 over/under. Utah demolished Portland in the opener and could do the same to Minnesota here.
- Suns (-3.5) at Kings, 227.5 over/under. Expected to be a close, fast-paced game.
Injuries to Monitor
Half of the Rockets -- COVID-19 protocol. James Harden ($10,900), Christian Wood ($5,900), Danuel House (4,700) and P.J. Tucker ($5,200) could all see 40 minutes.
Russell Westbrook ($10,300) -- Could rest. If he sits, Bradley Beal ($9,300) will take on even more usage,
Kevin Love ($6,500) -- Went through shootaround and is expected to play after missing the opener with a calf injury. If he surprisingly sits out, Larry Nance ($6,800) will stand to benefit.
Davis Bertans ($5,800) -- Could rest. If he's out, Troy Brown ($4,300), Deni Avdija ($4,100) and Isaac Bonga ($3,900) could see extra time.
Obi Toppin ($4,200) -- Doubtful with a calf injury. This could mean more action for Reggie Bullock ($3,400), but there's a good chance the minutes just get spread around evenly.
Cody Zeller -- Out with a broken hand. Bismack Biyombo ($3,600) will start, but he's not a guarantee to see more than minutes in the low-to-mid-20s. P.J. Washington ($5,000) will see action as a small-ball center.
Elite Players ($9,000+)
James Harden ($10,900) vs. POR
With essentially half the team unavailable, Harden will have an opportunity to put up slate-breaking numbers. He'll dominate the ball even more than usual. If he pops off and you don't have him in your lineup, it's going to be extremely tough to compete. And while his price is high, it's not reflective of the opportunity.
Russell Westbrook ($10,300) and/or Bradley Beal ($9,300) vs. ORL
The game has a high over/under because Washington loves to push the ball and Orlando is a middle-of-the-pack team at best. Make sure to keep an eye on Westbrook's status since he may rest.
Joel Embiid ($10,200) and Ben Simmons ($9,700) vs. NY
In the opener, the Knicks allowed the Pacers to take 54.4% of their shots at the rim, which is currently the highest mark in the league by a significant margin. Both Embiid and Simmons make their living near the rim.
Damian Lillard ($9,500) vs. HOU
We can't forget there's a team playing against the depleted Houston squad. This is a great opportunity to Lillard to have a huge performance.
Andre Drummond ($9,200) vs. DET
The Pistons are Drummond's former team, so there's a revenge game narrative here. Plus, the Pistons did an awful job protecting the rim in the opener, and that's where Drummond feasts.
Nikola Vucevic ($9,100) vs. WAS
Vucevic can score from anywhere on the court and the pace of this game should be sky-high. The Wizards don't have an elite center, so Vucevic should be able to have a nice outing.
Expected Chalk
James Harden ($10,900) and Christian Wood ($5,900), with Danuel House ($4,700) and/or P.J. Tucker ($5,200) vs. POR
It's difficult to stress how many lineups will have Harden and Wood in them. It's realistic for the pair to combine for 120 fantasy points, and it wouldn't be surprising if House and Tucker tacked on another 50-60 combined. While there's always some value in fading high-rostered players, this might not be the situation to dodge it.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($8,300) vs. CHA
The Thunder had their opener canceled due to the Rockets' mess, so OKC is playing its first game against the Hornets today. The Thunder are in a full-on rebuild with Gilgeous-Alexander leading the charge. Going up against a relatively bad Charlotte team, he should have an opportunity to pop. This could easily be the cheapest we'll see him all season.
Damian Lillard ($9,500) and Jusuf Nurkic ($7,000) vs. HOU
I expect this pair to get used together with Harden and Wood in plenty of lineups, as the Rockets-Blazers game will be a source of plenty of game stacks. Again, Houston is depleted and doesn't have the personnel to deal with Lillard or Nurkic (or really anybody on Portland for that matter).
Blake Griffin ($7,100) vs. CLE
This is just too cheap for Griffin, who had a down game in the opener against the Timberwolves. He's an All-Star caliber player when healthy, and the Pistons are still desperate for him to generate offense. Cleveland is a weak opponent, so he's in a good position to crush his salary.
Gordon Hayward ($7,300) vs. OKC
Hayward went off for 46 fantasy points in the opener against the Cavaliers, and he'll be going up against a worse opponent in the Thunder today. Given how versatile of an offensive player he is, he has a relatively high floor.
Value Picks
George Hill ($3,400) vs. CHA
We don't know how OKC's rotation is going to shake out, and I'd be nervous to play Hill if he had a higher salary. But at just $3,400, he barely needs to crack 15 fantasy points to be worth a roster spot. He has upside for 30 fantasy points if he can get 30-plus minutes, so this is a good opportunity for huge value.
Lonnie Walker ($4,700) vs. TOR
Walker played 34 minutes in the opener and posted 31.5 fantasy points for a Spurs team desperate for offensive production outside of DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge. He's a top-tier athlete and a well-rounded player. He won't go for 30 fantasy points every game, but this salary is still low enough to be a great value. Also consider Keldon Johnson ($5,000), who looked great in the bubble last year and in this season's opener.
Josh Jackson ($4,500) vs. CLE
Yes, that Josh Jackson. Shockingly, he played 29 minutes in the opener and posted 32 fantasy points. If he's going to get that kind of run again, I'll gladly fork up the $4,500 salary. He doesn't lack confidence, which is a great quality in someone at this salary range.
