This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
DraftKings is excluding the DET/PHI matchup from their featured slate so we will also remove the game from consideration in this article.
That leaves us with seven games to target on Saturday. While Simmons, Embiid, Griffin and the rest of those teams are off the table, we still have a lot of options. Before we begin, a few words about last night's contests.
It was a bleak night in GPP's for me, and only a couple of my cash lineups made it, so I booked just my second negative ROI night of the season. Guys like Wall and Conley underperformed and if you went for value guys like Exum you were sorely disappointed. The stars were the guys who carried the day on Friday, with Chris Paul defying expectations yet again.
Saturday marks yet another day full of injury concerns. For the Pelicans, Anthony Davis is marked as questionable. Elfrid Payton is definitely out, so Jrue Holiday ($7,900) is an excellent value against the Spurs. If Davis doesn't go, Nikola Mirotic ($8,200) is your big man to target. Stars like James Harden and Donovan Mitchell look like they will return to play tonight, and while I think a lot of guys are playable on the Utah side against the Nuggets, I'd steer clear of Houston's targets, as their game against the Bulls is definitely on blowout alert.
One other player to keep tabs on is Goran Dragic, who's been ruled out for Miami. In his absence, the obvious guy to click is Josh Richardson ($7,200), who should see a boost.
Back-to-back teams: Bulls, Rockets, Jazz
I'll now select three players at each position, with a small additional list of players worth considering. When possible, I will try to include a top-shelf player, a mid-range target and a low-cost value play in each spot.
GUARDS
Damian Lillard, POR vs. LAL ($9,900): If you want to spend up I think Lillard is poised for a stellar night of production against the Lakers. I'll speak more about the Lakers in a bit. These two teams have already played once, and Lillard scored 45 DKFP against them -- an exceptional number, but it doesn't beat value for his price. When you keep in mind that it was the first game of the season and a rusty shooting night for Lillard, you have to assume that the possibility to exceed his last total is not just possible, but probable. The Lakers are still a mess on defense, and the pace of this game should play into Lillard's hands.
Jamal Murray, DEN vs. UTA ($6,600): Murray hasn't produced many eye-popping stat lines, but at this price, I think he's got a chance to rectify that. Utah has given up an average of 34.9 DKFP per game against opposing point guards. Utah's are a little stronger at denying assists inside, but Denver's offense doesn't really get Murray involved in that way as much as other teams, and it shouldn't adversely affect his total. The Jazz are also on the second game of a back-to-back – a variable always worth considering, especially in a high-altitude venue like Denver.
Lonzo Ball, LAL at POR ($5,200): OK, now I'll discuss the Lakers, and this paragraph will mirror my first pick in the forwards section. Reports confirm that coach Luke Walton and Magic Johnson had a 'talk,' and I put that in quotes because sources say it was more like a lecture. I sense that some changes will be coming to the Lakers' offensive scheme as early as tonight, and to be honest I think it will involve the notion of thinning out the rotation. Their inability to close games out has a lot to do with a lack of cohesiveness. The only way to do that is to keep your top guys, or whoever you decide your first unit is, on the floor for 35-plus minutes per game. Right now, that isn't happening. It's no secret that Magic likes Lonzo, and I'm willing to bet that he was mentioned in this conversation. I think this will result in Ball letting loose a bit, and we will see less of Rondo, whose plus-minus numbers have been dreadful.
Other guards to consider:DeMar DeRozan, SA vs. NO ($9,400), Victor Oladipo, IND vs. BOS ($7,700), Nicolas Batum, CHA vs. CLE ($6,000)
FORWARDS
LeBron James, LAL at POR ($11,300): Believe it or not, this is the first time I've featured James in this column. It isn't because he isn't producing – he just hasn't hit value consistently enough relative to his price. Even more than Ball, I think the Walton/Magic exchange impacts James and how he is utilized. James' numbers have been fine thus far, but he's been a bit more passive than expected and is yet to truly take over a game from start to finish. The Blazers have an above-average defense and play at a league-average pace, but James is as matchup-proof as it gets, and his three-point shot is finally starting to come around. James has hit at least two threes in each of his last three games, and he's made at least 10 field goals in five of his last six.
Kyle Kuzma, LAL at POR ($6,200): I might be relying too much on that conversation as a metric for success, but it's obviously influenced me. I'm not against stacking the Lakers tonight if that isn't already clear. While I think the rotation will be thinner, I don't think the scheme will change much, as the Ball/Ingram/Kuzma/James/McGee combo is working. Tonight, we will see higher usage from all of them. Aside from McGee, Kuzma is at the most attractive price.
Other forwards to consider: Taurean Prince, ATL vs. MIA ($6,300), Jayson Tatum, BOS at IND ($6,000), P.J. Tucker, HOU at CHI ($4,600)
CENTERS
Nikola Jokic, DEN vs. UTA ($9,000): Some people may look at his meager stat line against Cleveland as a reason to fade him, but the Nuggets didn't need him on Thursday. As a result, he played 22 minutes, which was a season low. We've already mentioned how poor Utah's defense has been against point guards – against centers, they're even worse. Over the past five games, they've allowed Marc Gasol, Karl-Anthony Towns, DeAndre Jordan, and Clint Capela walk all over them. Expect Jokic to bounce back and deliver elite numbers.
Clint Capela, HOU at CHI ($7,400): The only thing that worries me about Capela is the potential for a blowout, but the Rockets are thin at this position. Capela regularly sees around 35 minutes per game, regardless of the score, so he should do well independent of the game's outcome. The Bulls have been surprisingly tough against some opposing centers, but they've tanked against the more elite guys. I'd put Capela in that category.
Wendell Carter Jr, CHI vs. HOU ($5,500): You thought I'd put McGee here. I like him too, but I am going back to the well with Carter tonight despite the tough matchup. At this price, a 30 DKFP night would meet value, and I think the rookie is establishing a solid floor in the early going. I suspect that he won't be at this price for long, so get him while you can.
Other centers to consider:Jusuf Nurkic, POR vs. LAL ($6,400)
