This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Slate Overview
Golden State vs. Brooklyn (-7.5)
O/U 229.5
LA Clippers vs. LA Lakers (-3)
O/U 220
Tuesday's slate tips off at 7:00 p.m. EST and will feature Kevin Durant against his old team as he makes his Nets debut. In the late game, the Lakers will begin defense of their title against the rival Clippers with both teams amongst the favorites for this season's crown.
I think it makes sense to target the GS/BKN game because it has a significantly higher total and likely provides the cheapest value. Predicting minutes, rotations and usage is toughest at the beginning of the year. It's a good time to take some chances and play off of the uncertainty. Winning GPPs is about embracing risk and volatility. Remember that DFS is about lineups, not players. Building with correlation and leverage is more important than trying to fit your favorite player in.
Injuries to Monitor
Draymond Green (foot): OUT
Eric Paschall ($3,800) is likely to start in Green's place and will be one of the highest-rostered players on the slate. Marquese Chriss ($4,000) should also see increased minutes while Kelly Oubre Jr ($6,700) and Andrew Wiggins ($7,000) could benefit from higher usage.
Marcus Morris Sr. (knee): OUT
Nicolas Batum ($4,100) or Luke Kennard ($3,600) could start. Either could be a decent dart throw if they make sense in a lineup.
Elite Players
Most builds will start with either LeBron James ($9,600) or Anthony Davis ($10,000). Both players project well and it's likely that one puts up a score that will be needed to win a contest. Kyrie Irving ($8,500) will be one of the highest-rostered guys on the slate -- and rightfully so, as he has a ceiling comparable with the other elites that comes with a significant price discount.
It's reasonable to start lineups with Kyrie and one with James/Davis. While he won't be low-rostered because it's only a two game slate, Kawhi Leonard ($9,100) makes for a good pivot off of the Laker's studs. His ceiling is similar and if he fits in a build that's playing for a plausible game script or scenario then don't hesitate to play him. If you are building one lineup and are just looking for the best point per dollar play with upside, Kyrie is the guy.
Expected Chalk
Eric Paschall ($3,800) is in line to start for the injured Draymond Green and will likely be the chalkiest of the value plays. I think he's tough to avoid at that price and should have no problem hitting value based on expected minutes and usage.
Montrezl Harrell ($5,300) should see plenty of minutes with Dwight Howard and JaVale McGee out of the picture. The way he can stuff a stat sheet gives him significant upside for his price making him worthy chalk as well.
Value Picks
Joe Harris ($4,800) should see significant minutes though it remains to be seen how playing with Kyrie and Durant will affect his output. Nonetheless, he has a safe floor and his three point shooting gives him the upside to be on a winning lineup.
Marquese Chriss ($4,000) is a riskier play than Paschall but provides direct leverage off of the chalk and comes with double-double upside for a cheap price.
Patrick Beverley ($4,400) is probably too cheap for his expected minutes and usage and should hit value.
Serge Ibaka ($5,200) was named the starting center and his game provides the fantasy upside to make him a good pivot in opposition to Harrell.
