This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Slate Overview
CHA (-1.5) vs. ORL, O/U: 213.5
PHI (-6.5) vs. DET, O/U: 215.5
TOR vs. IND (-2.5), O/U: 216.5
MIA vs. BKN (-7.5), O/U: 234.5
LAL (-10.5) vs. CLE, O/U: 215
DEN (-1.5) vs. DAL, O/U: 222.5
BOS (-7.5) vs. CHI, O/U: 228.5
SA vs. NO (-2.5), O/U: 222.5
MIN vs. GS (-8.5), O/U: 225.5
OKC vs. POR (-5.5), O/U: 221.5
Monday's DraftKings NBA slate tips off at 7:00 p.m. EST and includes 10 games. Nikola Jokic and Luka Doncic will square off in the marquee matchup of the night. Joel Embiid is listed as questionable and could rest. Kyle Lowry and Pascal Siakam have missed games recently and both are likely to be game-time decisions. Jayson Tatum is expected to return after clearing the league's health and safety protocols.
Targeting the two late games would be acceptable if for no other reason than for late-swap flexibility, but the late games are appealing on their own as well. The GS-MIN matchup features a very affordable Stephen Curry, Andrew Wiggins facing his old team, and multiple viable value options on the Minnesota side with D'Angelo Russell listed as questionable and Karl-Anthony Towns still out. The OKC-POR matchup is a pace-up spot that features Damian Lillard playing without CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic, while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will continue to run the show for the Thunder, who are likely to still be without Al Horford. As far as a game to fade, the Lakers as double-digit favorites would be a reasonable option. It has been difficult to trust the minutes for LeBron James and Anthony Davis this season and the possibility of a blowout only adds uncertainty.
Injuries to Monitor
Joel Embiid (back): QUESTIONABLE
Embiid is listed as questionable as he continues to deal with back tightness. If he sits tonight, Dwight Howard ($4,200) would see increased run.
LeBron James (ankle): QUESTIONABLE
James is listed as questionable again but still hasn't missed a game all season. If he ever decides to sit, Kyle Kuzma ($4,800) would likely start in his place.
Jayson Tatum (COVID-19): QUESTIONABLE
Tatum hasn't played since Jan. 8 but is expected back tonight.
D'Angelo Russell (quad): QUESTIONABLE
Russell missed Saturday's game after apparently picking up an injury Friday. If he sits tonight, Ricky Rubio ($5,100) should see increased run.
Pascal Siakam (knee): QUESTIONABLE
It's unclear if Siakam will be available tonight after missing yesterday's game with knee soreness. If he sits, Stanley Johnson ($3,800) will likely start again at power forward.
Kyle Lowry (toe): QUESTIONABLE
Lowry missed his second consecutive game yesterday. If he sits again tonight, Norman Powell ($5,200) will start in his place.
Aaron Gordon (hip/back): QUESTIONABLE
Gordon missed Sunday's game due to hip and back soreness and could be out again tonight. Gary Clark ($3,000) started in his place yesterday.
Tyler Herro (neck): OUT
Herro will miss his sixth consecutive game tonight. Goran Dragic ($6,300) and Kendrick Nunn ($6,100) will continue to see increased run.
Kemba Walker (rest): OUT
Walker will be rested for the second night of a back-to-back. Marcus Smart ($6,400) will start at point guard.
Wendell Carter (thigh): DOUBTFUL
Carter isn't expected to play tonight and Daniel Gafford ($3,100) will likely start in his place again.
Derrick Rose (knee): OUT
Rose will miss his second consecutive game dealing with knee soreness. Delon Wright ($5,500) should start again at point guard.
Al Horford (personal): QUESTIONABLE
Horford continues to sit out following the birth of his child and his status tonight is unclear. If he sits tonight, Isaiah Roby ($4,600) would start again.
Elite Players
Nikola Jokic ($10,800) and Luka Doncic ($10,700) are the most expensive players on tonight's slate. Jokic has scored at least 62 DK points in five of his last six games as his torrid run continues. Doncic is coming off a disappointing performance in Saturday's blowout loss and the Mavericks will get Kristaps Porzingis back after he was rested. They will face off against each other tonight in what should be a competitive matchup. Either has the upside to be the slate's highest scorer, but Jokic seems to have the safer floor.
Kevin Durant ($10,400), Damian Lillard ($10,300) and James Harden ($10,200) round out the players with five-figure salaries. Harden took just eight shots Saturday and 14 in each of the two games prior. Durant appears to be the safest of the Nets' big three, but it's hard to trust any of them at these salaries, especially on a 10-game slate. I'd rather spend up for Lillard, who's taking over 20 shots per game in the absence of CJ McCollum and playing in a favorable matchup against the Thunder.
Domantas Sabonis ($9,800), Joel Embiid ($9,700) and Anthony Davis ($9,200) are the other elite options at center. Sabonis shot 1-for-10 and scored 41.25 DK points last night, his lowest output in the past 10 games. Embiid is listed as questionable and could be rested. Davis has been inconsistent all season, but upside is always there at his current salary. Of the three, Sabonis has the safest floor. On a big slate like tonight, I'd rather spend all the way up for Jokic or pay down for cheaper value than roster any of these 9K centers.
LeBron James ($9,300), Stephen Curry ($9,200) and Kyrie Irving ($9,000) are the other elite options at guard. James has been inconsistent and underwhelming as his minutes have been limited for most of the season. Curry is in a great spot tonight against a bad Minnesota defense. Irving is averaging 50 DK points in three games with the new-look Nets. I'll be looking to roster Curry tonight.
Expected Chalk
As it stands, no one sticks out as chalk, so let's talk about some spots that will be popular and some news that could open things up. Both late games are appealing tonight. The OKC-POR matchup is a pace-up spot that features Lillard playing without McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander playing without much help at all. Al Horford is likely to be out again and Isaiah Roby still has an affordable salary. The Warriors have a favorable matchup against a bad Minnesota defense and Curry has seen his salary drop to its lowest point in 10 games. D'Angelo Russell is listed as questionable while Jarred Vanderbilt is still a viable value option in the absence of Karl-Anthony Towns.
It's possible that Embiid rests tonight, and that would make Dwight Howard popular should he start in his place. Kyle Lowry and Pascal Siakam are game-time decisions and either one of them sitting would open up some value. Norman Powell has been chalky in the absence of Lowry and would be popular again should he start. The Heat are still without a host of key players, so guys like Goran Dragic, Bam Adebayo and Kendrick Nunn could be popular if there isn't any other significant news.
Value Picks
Zach LaVine ($8,600)
LaVine has seen a significant reduction in salary as he'd been priced in the mid 9K range for the past five games. He's put up over 50 DK points in five of the past seven games and I like his upside for tournaments tonight.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($8,100)
Gilgeous-Alexander is playing in a pace-up spot against Portland and his salary has come back down from a high of $8,700 last week.
Andrew Wiggins ($6,500)
The Warriors have a favorable matchup tonight against Minnesota and Wiggins should want to prove a point against his old team.
Goran Dragic ($6,200)
Miami are still without a host of key players including Tyler Herro. On a slate that currently lacks much for clear-cut value, Dragic stands out.
Jarred Vanderbilt ($5,100)
Vanderbilt put up 37.25 DK points in just 21 minutes Saturday. He will start and see significant run again tonight as Minnesota are still without KAT and Juancho Hernangomez.
Gary Clark ($3,000)
This is contingent on the status of Aaron Gordon. Clark played 35 minutes and scored 24 DK points as he started for the injured Gordon on Sunday.
