This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
As more and more transfers get their chance to start, significant value has opened up on this nine-game slate. Let's get right to the action.
SLATE OVERVIEW
IND (-7) vs. BKN O/U: 219
ORL (-6.5) vs. ATL O/U: 219.5
DET (-2.5) vs. CHA O/U: 206
MIL (-12.5) vs. SAC O/U: 227.5
UTA (-1) @ DAL O/U: 222
DEN (-7.5) vs. SA O/U: 220.5
LAL (-12.5) vs. PHO O/U: 229
MIA (-5.5) @ GS O/U: 220
It's a night to roster two centers. The pool is deep and the value is there, and you're going to get more reliable rebound output on a slate that is largely devoid of high O/U lines. Fewer points equal more missed shots, which results in more rebounds.
INJURY SITUATIONS TO MONITOR
Giannis Antetokounmpo (personal) QUESTIONABLE
We have no information about his status at this time. His absence would obviously heavily impact the Bucks, so keep your ear to the ground about this one. Khris Middleton ($7,900) becomes chalk if Giannis is out.
Deandre Ayton (ankle) QUESTIONABLE
The injury doesn't appear to be severe, so we may still see Ayton tonight. With Aron Baynes (hip) questionable as well, the Suns would be without a viable true center aside from Cheick Diallo ($3,100), who I'd only use as a hail mary pass on an elite-filled lineup. You'd likely see a boost from Kelly Oubre ($7,300) and Cameron Johnson ($3,400) in this scenario.
D'Angelo Russell (quad) QUESTIONABLE
The debut for Russell in Minneapolis may or may not occur tonight. I wouldn't be surprised if they let him rest out this injury through the All-Star break, though. Twenty-three games out of first, Russell jumped from the cellar-dwelling Warriors to an equally irrelevant team in the West, so the rationale is there to preserve their new asset. If he doesn't take the floor, Josh Okogie ($4,700) would be my candidate for a boost, but you also can't count out the surging Jordan McLaughlin ($5,300) or the newly acquired Malik Beasley ($4,300). This trio needs heavy exposure if Russell sits.
Jimmy Butler (shoulder) QUESTIONABLE
Butler was held out Sunday and could be in line to sit again. Goran Dragic ($5,900) and Duncan Robinson ($5,200) both had boosts in his absence, and Jae Crowder ($4,500) also had an excellent debut game with a 47-DKFP score versus Portland.
Kyle Lowry (neck) QUESTIONABLE
Fred VanVleet ($7,600) and Terence Davis ($4,800) would once again be excellent options if Lowry is out tonight, and VanVleet is a reasonable candidate regardless of Lowry's availability.
Let's now talk big men in both Atlanta and Sacramento. I doubt we will see Clint Capela make his debut as a Hawk until after the All-Star break. Dewayne Dedmon ($4,400) played for the team last year and is already familiar with the system, so I like his potential output over presumed starter Damian Jones. Obviously, John Collins ($8,500) will also carry a heavy load. The Kings are also saddled with many injuries in the interior, and I think Nemanja Bjelica ($6,000) is their best hope to get them through this mess, with Harry Giles ($3,500) as an ultra-low-cost option.
Back-to-back teams tonight: Utah, Atlanta, Miami
ELITE PLAYERS
Anthony Davis, LAL ($10,300) vs. PHO
Although you can never call LeBron James ($10,900) a fade, I like Davis a lot better in this matchup, especially if Deandre Ayton fails to suit up. Even with Ayton in the lineup, Davis' two-game average against the Suns is close to 50 DKFP. While that would be just below 5k value here, I'm reasonably confident that Davis and the Lakers can exploit their opponents' injury-riddled interior.
Trae Young, ATL ($10,100) @ ORL
The O/U line isn't great, but Young's season DKFP average is just above 5k value at this price, and it'll be up to Young and Collins to lead the offense in this matchup. Young put up 65 DKFP in his last game against the Magic, so the ceiling is definitely there for the point guard.
Also consider: Nikola Jokic, DEN ($10,200) vs. SA
EXPECTED CHALK AND OTHER TARGETS
As previously noted, Khris Middleton will be a huge add if Giannis is out, and despite the likely high ownership, I'll be all over him in cash.
Rudy Gobert, UTA ($7,800) @ DAL
Gobert certainly got the best of Kristaps Porzingis in their first meeting this season, and the Luka Doncic-less Mavericks will have their work cut out for them if Gobert is rested enough. The back-to-back is a concern, but they didn't have to travel far after a win over Houston, and Gobert has a three-game double-double streak to preserve.
Christian Wood, DET ($7,200) vs. CHA
Don't look now, but it's time for the Christian Wood era (?) in Detroit. In what might be one of the more overlooked ramifications of all the trade deadline activity, Wood now holds the keys at the five in Detroit, and he couldn't ask for a better opponent in his second start. The Hornets are dead last in defending the center position, and Wood's 17/11 double-double against the Knicks indicates that he's more than ready to lay the hammer down on Charlotte.
Devonte' Graham, CHA ($7,100) @ DET
Although Wood should prevail in the frontcourt, I think the Hornets have the upper hand in the backcourt with Graham and Terry Rozier ($6,300) leading the way. Graham is easily the more prolific player of the duo, and he enjoyed a value-beating 41 DKFP against the Pistons in their last matchup. Graham has suffered through a cold stretch but put up 50 DKFP against Dallas two days ago.
Caris LeVert, BKN ($7,000)
If you read my articles with any frequency, you know that I've touted the merits of LeVert when Kyrie Irving isn't in the lineup. Although Spencer Dinwiddie ($7,900) has seen his salary drop to a point where I could play him, his seasonal averages still ride a little low for the price, and LeVert's past three games have been total value-busters with a 45.5 DKFP average over that span.
Eric Bledsoe, MIL ($6,800) vs. SAC
Bledsoe's recent lines are very consistent, and the point guard also delivered a 41-DKFP score in his last game against the Kings. I expect the Bucks will need to absorb a lot of Giannis' output if he's out, so the Bledsoe's evening could reap significant benefits. He's had issues with his three-point shot, but I otherwise like his chances tonight.
Also consider: Donovan Mitchell, UTA ($7,400) @ DAL
VALUE PLAYS
Mike Conley, UTA ($5,500) @ DAL
I see low ownership for Conley for a variety of reasons. There's the back-to-back, the red defensive number, and, let's face it, it's Mike Conley. You can't sleep on his recent output, however, as he's experiencing a bit of an in-season renaissance. You also have to discount the defensive numbers because the Mavericks are currently playing without their best player. Additionally, backcourts have had a field day against Dallas with Doncic out (note the Mitchell endorsement). I don't normally push teams on the tail end, but I obviously am a fan of Utah tonight.
Brook Lopez, MIL ($5,300) vs. SAC
Only use this play if Giannis is out. Lopez sees a five percent usage boost and a few more points per game when Antetokounmpo sits, which gives him the third-best increase behind Middleton and Bledsoe. Sacramento's front line is ailing, and although Bjelica is a decent defensive threat, the Bledsoe/Middleton to Lopez connection will be in full swing without Giannis.
Paul Millsap, DEN ($4,700) vs. SA
What do you know? Millsap is back, and he quickly made an impact in his return from injury with a nice 33.75 DKFP performance against Phoenix. He did that in only 18 minutes of court time as well. He should gradually get a workload increase, so we could easily 25 minutes or more as the Nuggets greet the Spurs at high altitude.
Ky Bowman, GS ($4,200) vs. MIA
This is Bowman's backcourt until Stephen Curry returns. The departure of Russell and Alec Burks left the door wide open for Bowman, who is at a great price and should remain fairly cheap. The Heat could be without Jimmy Butler as well, so the Warriors might actually have a shot at winning a game here.
Victor Oladipo, IND ($4,200) vs. BKN
I think you have to make a run with Oladipo in at least a couple of tournament lineups. The blow-up game could happen any day now. He bumped his field goal percentage up to 45 percent in his last game, and that's been his Achilles heel so far since his return to action. The upward trend is too good to pass up at this price, but I still won't use him in cash.
Gary Harris, DEN ($4,100) vs. SA
As long as Will Barton remains out, I think Harris is his most reliable pivot. He's responded well in Barton's absence with 28 and 23 DKFP performances in the past two games, and while that's nothing spectacular, it still beats value. Millsap's resurgence will impact the potential output, but Harris will still see 25-30 minutes with Barton sidelined.
