This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Monday's slate kicks at 4 p.m. ET with seven games, and due to some question marks for the Lakers, we'll be able to do some late swaps in that game if we end up in some trouble with educated guesses about their injury situations.
SLATE OVERVIEW
NO (-1) @ DET O/U: 226.5
IND (-2) vs. PHI O/U: 213
BOS (-10) vs. CHI O/U; 215.5
OKC (-2.5) @MIN O/U: 219
POR (-9.5) vs. CHA O/U: 218.5
SAC (-2.5) vs. ORL O/U: 210.5
LAL (-14) vs. CLE O/U: 220
No single game really stands out in terms of output, but sports bettors should flock to Detroit against the vastly undermanned Pelicans. I like a lot of action in that game, and I'm also good with some Sacramento pivots and Boston value.
INJURY SITUATIONS TO MONITOR
Karl-Anthony Towns (knee/illness) QUESTIONABLE
It's necessary to keep mentioning him in this section because there's always a chance that he'll surprise us all and play. At present, the only player to truly avoid if this happens is Gorgui Dieng ($6,000), who will continue to occupy the five in Towns' absence.
Anthony Davis (back) QUESTIONABLE
LeBron James (illness) is listed as probable, but Davis' status is still in question. Due to the extremely favorable matchup, the Lakers may elect to sit Davis and give LeBron free reign to stick it to his home-town team. If Davis is out, the clear pivot is Kyle Kuzma ($5,900).
Joel Embiid (finger) OUT
I'll begin leaving Embiid out of this section until he is closer to return. Al Horford ($6,800) will shift to center for the duration, and Mike Scott ($3,600) will take over at the four. Tobias Harris ($6,800) should also receive special attention in this scenario.
Domantas Sabonis (knee) QUESTIONABLE
Sabonis was playing lights out prior to this injury, but unless he's out beyond tonight, his salary won't adjust to a level where I'm completely comfortable playing him. Myles Turner ($7,000) makes the most sense as a pivot candidate, while T.J. Warren ($5,900) and Doug McDermott ($3,700) would share duties at the four.
Jrue Holiday (elbow) QUESTIONABLE
JJ Redick (hamstring) QUESTIONABLE
Derrick Favors (hamstring) QUESTIONABLE
If Holiday misses another game, continue to roll with Lonzo Ball ($6,900) until further notice. Josh Hart ($5,300) should see more time if Redick remains sidelined. The situation at center is usually cloudy when Favors is out, but recently Jaxson Hayes ($4,600) has been the better option.
Malcolm Brogdon (back/illness) QUESTIONABLE
The Pacers were ready to get Brogdon back but a case of strep throat kept that from happening over the weekend. If this illness keeps him off the court one more game, Aaron Holiday ($5,200) should continue to draw the start.
Richaun Holmes (shoulder) OUT
Marvin Bagley III (foot) OUT
Bogdan Bogdanovic (ankle) OUT
Holmes will likely be out through the end of the month. A reliable pivot for him will be a tough call in the short term, especially until Bagley is cleared to return. Nemanja Bjelica ($5,500) will continue to see minutes for Bagley and should be called upon to shore up the interior in Holmes' absence, but it's too soon to make a call between Dewayne Dedmon ($4,000) and Harry Giles III ($3,700) at center, and I'll stay away until that situation crystallizes. Trevor Ariza ($4,400) has emerged as a viable pivot for Bogdanovic, and is my favorite value on the team currently.
Aaron Gordon (calf) QUESTIONABLE
D.J. Augustin (knee) QUESTIONABLE
Wes Iwundu ($3,400) is a very cheap punt play that I'd mostly avoid. With Jonathan Isaac out until April as well, Terrence Ross ($5,000) is a much better option. If Augustin is out, I think it's time to give Markelle Fultz ($5,900) a serious look. His price is a little high, but 30 DKFP could get him to 5x value.
ELITE PLAYERS
Andre Drummond, DET ($10,300) vs. NO
Ignore Drummond's most recent stat line, as he was ejected from the game for hitting Daniel Gafford in the head with the ball. This situation sets up excellently for Drummond, as the Pelicans will likely be without Derrick Favors. I'd also ignore the stat line he posted earlier this year against the Pelicans, as he had an eye issue that limited his output in that game.
LeBron James, LAL ($9,500) vs. CLE
James' numbers against the Cavaliers have always been good, even back in his days with the Heat. Assuming he's feeling close to 100 percent, James should beat 5x value if Anthony Davis remains out. I'd downgrade James a bit if Davis returns, but I wouldn't fade him. This is a situation you've got to monitor if you want to endorse the Lakers.
Brandon Ingram, NO ($8,100) @ DET
With the Pelicans ailing practically everywhere, Ingram will have to do a little bit of everything to keep them competitive. With his recent floor hovering around 45 DKFP, beating 5x value here is within the realm of possibility. His history against Detroit is so-so, but he did meet projections with 45 DKFP in his last game against them, and tonight's game script puts the weight of the offense on Ingram's shoulders.
Jayson Tatum, BOS ($7,700) vs. CHI
Tatum was really feeling his three-point shot against the Pelicans on Friday. He nailed six of nine from long range, resulting in a career-high 41 points. I wouldn't expect him to replicate that total but I'm inclined to ride the hot hand tonight against the Bulls. If he remains dialed in beyond the arc, I think 40 DKFP is a doable number.
EXPECTED CHALK AND OTHER TARGETS
De'Aaron Fox, SAC ($7,400) vs. ORL
Much like Ingram and the Pelicans, the dearth of options available for the Kings should put a lot of pressure on Fox's shoulders, and it should result in a plethora of output from the standout point guard. I don't mean to hedge, but I also think that Buddy Hield ($6,300) and even Harrison Barnes ($5,000) could benefit from this game script. The mediocre O/U would lead me away from doing a stack of any combo here, however. Depending on your build, one of these guys could come in handy here, but I think Fox will produce the highest total.
Kevin Love, CLE ($6,700) @ LAL
I'll place a qualifier on this pick and say that if Davis is out, you should consider giving Love ample exposure, as his median price has hit 7x value in two of his past four games, and in five of his past 10. Even absent those numbers, he's got a reasonable floor in the mid-30 DKFP range, which isn't bad at this price either.
Chris Paul, OKC ($6,600) @ MIN
Paul's history against the Timberwolves has remained freakishly steady over a three-year period, with numbers ranging from 30 to 52 DKFP over that span. He also went for 50 DKFP in his last matchup versus Minnesota. The T-wolves are also dreadful defensively against point guards, and have given up an average of 36.3 FP to opposing ones this season.
C.J. McCollum, POR ($6,100) vs. CHA
McCollum's price has sunk to a spot where you have to consider him, as he's a nightly threat to reach at least 5x value. Although he's yet to face the Hornets, I'm encouraged by the above-average pace of the contest as well as the defensive matchup opposite Terry Rozier.
VALUE PLAYS
Refer back to the injury section for some great exploitable spots. Below are some additional bargain targets to consider.
Carmelo Anthony, POR ($5,400) vs. CHA
Anthony's totals jump around quite a bit, but he won't have to do much to beat value at this price, and I think that Miles Bridges and PJ Washington aren't going to have an easy time against the veteran. The Hornets are also giving up an average of 29 FP against Anthony's position, so if you're willing to weather the variance, I think Melo is in a totally reasonable spot.
Enes Kanter, BOS ($5,400) vs. CHI
With Wendell Carter Jr. sidelined for the foreseeable future, the Bulls are relying on rookie Daniel Gafford. While the Arkansas product has played serviceable ball for Chicago, I think he's easily outmatched by Kanter tonight. My only hesitation is that the game might get out of hand, but Kanter should log considerable minutes regardless, as Daniel Theis may not be able to take the floor.
Josh Okogie, MIN ($3,300) vs OKC
I think this game is further apart than the line may indicate, and if the T-wolves end up playing from behind, I think we'll see more of Okogie. He excelled in garbage time against the Rockets, and when given the opportunity, he's played better than Jeff Teague and is on par with Shabazz Napier and Jarrett Culver.
