This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
On Monday's nine-game slate, there's one game in particular that stands out like a sore thumb when you take Vegas' opinion into account.
Coming in with one of the highest Over/Under lines of the season is Monday's matchup between the Pelicans and the Thunder. At an eye-popping 237 O/U, the oddsmakers seem to think that this game represents a treasure trove of DFS goodness. I would agree with that from a cash game perspective, but for your GPP lineups, it would be wise to limit your exposure somewhat. The relatively clear metric will lead to high ownership across the board for both teams. That being said, one scan of the slate makes it evident that this game provides the best opportunity to get to a winning score.
Although Anthony Davis ($11,300) has a questionable tag, it's likely that he'll play. I'm fonder of spending down with Nikola Mirotic ($8,100) instead, and with Elfrid Payton (ankle) still out, Jrue Holiday ($8,300) is about as chalky as you can get for a point guard tonight. On the other end, I feel the same way about paying too much for similar value. Rather than head for Russell Westbrook, Paul George ($8,800) comes in at $2,300 less, and if you calculate the dollar-per-point value between the two players, George looks cheap. Jerami Grant ($4,400) is the value pick for me in this game. As long as he sees 30 minutes or more, he's a lock to make value.
There are a few injuries worth monitoring tonight:
Hassan Whiteside (OUT -- knee): Pivot to Bam Adebayo ($4,300)
Tim Hardaway, Jr. (QUESTIONABLE -- back): Pivot to Allonzo Trier ($4,200), Damyean Dotson ($4,800)
Goran Dragic (PROBABLE -- toe): Pivot to Josh Richardson ($7,500), Justise Winslow ($5,200)
Donovan Mitchell is out, but use Grayson Allen ($3,000) at your own risk. While he started in place of Mitchell last week, he didn't exactly light it up. If Dante Exum (shoulder) ends up playing I like that spot much better, and I also think Ricky Rubio ($6,000) will see better numbers.
Back-to-back games: Knicks, Magic, Grizzlies. Timberwolves, Raptors
With those endorsements in mind, I'll now select three players at each position. Each spot will also include a list of additional players worth considering. When possible, I will try to pick a top-shelf player, a mid-range target and a low-cost value play at each spot.
GUARDS
Stephen Curry, GS vs. MEM ($10,300): If you're slow to adapt, a synonym for GS vs. MEM might be 'blowout,' but the Grizzlies are hot right now, and they plan on making this game close. Making any game competitive against the Warriors is an achievement unto itself, and when it does occur, Golden State's starting five rises to the occasion. Curry has AVERAGED 50 DKFP per game over the past five games. That's just ridiculous. He also went 26-for-53 from beyond the arc in that span. All of these superlatives make it easier to pay the ten grand you need to roster him.
Klay Thompson, GS vs. MEM ($5,900): It's a little thin in the mid-range, so why not just stack the Warriors? After his record-breaking night from beyond the arc three games ago, he's kept things going at a decent clip of around 30 DKFP per game, which is entirely serviceable at this price. Some might question stacking Thompson and Curry but if you're fading the Pelicans -Thunder game you could do a lot worse.
Lou Williams, LAC vs. MIN ($5,700): Sweet Lou keeps churning out quality stat lines off of the bench and over the past five games he's averaging 31.9 DKFP and converting 65 percent of his 3-point attempts. The Clippers paid top dollar to keep Williams, and as the most dangerous sixth man in the league, he's worth every penny. He's also an excellent DFS value in this price range and will give you some predictability in a cash roster.
Other guards to consider:Victor Oladipo, IND vs. HOU ($8,200), Gary Harris, DEN vs. BOS ($6,100), Dennis Schroder, OKC vs. NO ($5,500)
FORWARDS
I endorsed a few players at this position at the beginning of this article, and I kept going back to them as I explored the slate. Guys like George and Mirotic would be difficult to fade, but here are some other options.
Tobias Harris, LAC vs. MIN ($7,200): Harris is a huge pivot from guys like Durant, Griffin, and Leonard that loom large at the top, but you need some quality guys in this range if you hope to be able to afford an elite player. The Timberwolves rank 24th versus power forwards, and they're also on a West Coast back-to-back, so the Clippers have an excellent opportunity here, and Harris will be a crucial component if they want to take advantage. Harris' floor is a little lower than I'd like, but he's put up four 40-plus DKFP games, so there's potential for a blowup night.
Aaron Gordon, ORL vs. CLE ($6,500): We've seen a few glimpses of the 'old' Aaron Gordon, but this matchup against the lowly Cavaliers might be what the doctor ordered. Without LeBron (on the Lakers) and Kevin Love (toe), the Cavs' interior is a shell of what it once was, and there's a chance that this game could go into blowout mode, but it's very slim. Orlando has yet to win a game by more than seven points. Look for Gordon to dismantle Cleveland tonight.
Paul Millsap, DEN vs. BOS ($5,600): Millsap has an opportunity to beat value at this price as long as he sees a full allotment of minutes. The Celtics are excellent defensively, but their soft spot is at the four. I want to give him a full-throated endorsement, but his potential usage is a bit troubling. For that reason, I'm only giving him a nod for your tournament lineups.
Other forwards to consider:Blake Griffin, DET vs. MIA ($9,800), Rodney McGruder, MIA at DET ($6,400), Jayson Tatum, BOS at DEN ($6,100)
CENTERS
Wendell Carter, Jr, CHI at NY ($6,100): There is nothing wrong with Jokic, Gobert and the other elites, but I see myself spending down at center tonight with targets like Carter, who has been a cash game go-to for me on the regular this season. Now that he has a firm handle on the starting role, he's difficult to fade at such a reasonable price. Over the past six games, he's averaged 36.2 DKFP, which included a stellar 43.75 DKFP outing two days ago against Houston.
Domantas Sabonis, IND vs. HOU ($5,900): Sabonis continued to perform well even after Myles Turner returned to form, and his DFS appeal is highlighted by a reliable floor in the 30 DKFP range. Houston's defense has regressed a bit this season, and Vegas has this game as a virtual toss-up. All of this is good news for Sabonis.
Boban Marjanovic, LAC vs. MIN ($4,500): I wish Marjanovic had dual-eligibility, as I almost have to balk at using him at this valuable position, but he's playing way beyond this price. Boban will likely see his share of minutes in a game that favors the Clippers. I've already made my trepidations about Karl-Anthony Towns' defensive prowess evident in this column, and even though Marjanovic is technically third on the depth chart at center, his price is too reasonable to pass up.
Other centers to consider:Marc Gasol, MEM at GS ($7,900), Enes Kanter, NY vs. CHI ($6,200)
