This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Slate Overview
ATL (-4.5) vs. WAS, O/U: 232
IND (-3.5) vs. CHA, O/U: 219.5
CLE (-1) vs. NY, O/U: 207
MIL (-7) vs. NO, O/U: 228.5
SAC vs. TOR (-5.5), O/U: 229.5
BKN (-8.5) vs. OKC, O/U: 230.5
LAC vs. ORL (-2.5), O/U: 212.5
PHI (-6.5) vs. MIN, O/U: 225.5
DEN (-4.5) vs. SA, O/U: 224.5
DAL vs. UTA (-4.5), O/U: 220.5
Friday's DraftKings NBA slate tips off at 7:00 p.m. EST and includes 10 games. Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and Patrick Beverley are listed as questionable, but will likely be out again tonight. Joel Embiid, Donovan Mitchell and D'Angelo Russell are also questionable. If you pay attention to historical values, you'll notice some puzzling salaries for tonight as DraftKings has decided to give us a discount on plenty of players. I'll highlight some of them in the value picks section.
The ATL-WAS matchup is an appealing target tonight. Trae Young and Bradley Beal have been in good form and will square off in a game with the slate's highest total. Both teams are also still dealing with a few absences. The SAC-TOR matchup also stands out, especially the Raptors as the salaries remain favorable. As far as a game to fade, the BKN-OKC matchup seems like a reasonable option. It's not often that I chose to fade a game with a 230 total, but the Nets are difficult to predict and a blowout is also in play against a subpar Thunder team.
Injuries to Monitor
Kawhi Leonard and Paul George (COVID-19): QUESTIONABLE
Leonard and George are listed as questionable and considered day-to-day as they remain in the league's health and safety protocols and it's unlikely they return tonight. Reggie Jackson ($6,700), Luke Kennard ($6,200) and Terance Mann ($5,600) should continue to see increased run.
Joel Embiid (back): QUESTIONABLE
Embiid continues to be bothered by back soreness which caused him to miss Monday's game. If he sits tonight, expect Dwight Howard ($4,200) and Tony Bradley ($3,600) to see the majority of minutes at center.
Clint Capela (hand): PROBABLE
Capela has been playing through a hand injury and should be fine for tonight.
Donovan Mitchell (concussion): QUESTIONABLE
Mitchell missed Wednesday's game but could return tonight as long as he clears concussion protocol. If he sits, Joe Ingles ($4,700) would likely start in his place again.
D'Angelo Russell (quad): QUESTIONABLE
Russell has missed the past three games and is considered questionable for tonight. Ricky Rubio ($5,000) has been starting in his place.
Larry Nance (wrist): QUESTIONABLE
Nance has missed the past two games dealing with a sprained wrist, but could return as soon as tonight. Taurean Prince ($4,700) and Dylan Windler ($3,100) have been seeing more minutes in his absence.
OG Anunoby (calf): QUESTIONABLE
Anunoby missed Wednesday's game with a strained calf. If he sits again tonight, Norman Powell ($6,200) would get another start.
Lonzo Ball (ankle): QUESTIONABLE
Ball tweaked his ankle during Wednesday's game. If he can't go tonight, Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($4,200) would be in line for increased minutes.
Patrick Beverley (knee): QUESTIONABLE
Beverley has missed the past two games with a sore right knee. If he sits again tonight, Reggie Jackson ($6,700) and Terance Mann ($5,600) will handle the point guard duties.
Elite Players
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,800) and Luka Doncic ($10,600) are the most expensive players on tonight's slate. James Harden ($10,300), Bradley Beal ($10,200) and Nikola Jokic ($10,100) represent the others with five-figure salaries. When choosing between Giannis and Doncic on a 10-game slate, the most important factor for me is potential upside. For tournaments, you should be less concerned with safety and more concerned with finding the player who will put up the highest score. Over his last 10 contests, Giannis has put up over 60 DK points four times, with 65.5 being his highest output in that time. In that same span, Doncic has topped 77 DK points three times, with two games of 86.25 and 87.5. While it's a relatively small sample size, the difference in ceiling is quite significant. James Harden's range of outcomes is too wide for my liking. Bradley Beal put up 70.5 DK points last time out and faces a great matchup against the Hawks, so he will be a popular play. Nikola Jokic always offers the potential to be slate's highest scorer, but it might be difficult to pay all the way up at center with other elite players being more appealing and without much for cheap value.
Joel Embiid ($9,400), Julius Randle ($9,300) and Domantas Sabonis ($9,200) represent the other elite options at center. Embiid is listed as questionable and could sit out tonight after resting in a similar spot on Monday. Randle has seen a slight drop in usage with the return of Alec Burks and the emergence of Immanuel Quickley. Sabonis is coming off his second triple-double of the season and has also seen a slight decrease in salary. Of the three, he would be my pick tonight.
Trae Young ($9,100) and Russell Westbrook ($9,000) are the other elite options at point guard. Young has now topped 50 DK points in six straight and has a great matchup against the Wizards. Westbrook has been playing with a minutes restriction that really limits his upside. I would've expected Young's salary to be a bit higher tonight. He's my pick.
Expected Chalk
Ben Simmons ($7,700)
Simmons is coming off a triple-double that saw him score 53.75 DK points on Wednesday, so it's rather puzzling his salary has dropped to a season-low. He'd been consistently valued in the high-8K range and even saw a tag of $9,100 just nine days ago. Add to that Joel Embiid is listed as questionable and could sit out tonight. Regardless, Simmons will be a popular play.
Trae Young ($9,100)
Normally I try to highlight some of the cheaper guys who I think will be chalky, but there aren't any smash value plays that currently stand out. Joe Ingles would be one should Donovan Mitchell sit again, but we don't have that news yet. Nickeil Alexander-Walker would also be a popular value play if Lonzo Ball is forced to miss. Young should be popular tonight amongst the elite players. The Hawks face a favorable matchup against the Wizards and he's been in fine form scoring at least 50 DK points in six straight games.
Value Picks
Pascal Siakam ($7,300)
Historical salaries are going to be a theme with most of my value picks for tonight. Siakam had generally been in the mid-8K range only two weeks ago. He missed a couple games through injury and now can be rostered at a discount.
Aaron Gordon ($7,100)
Gordon is coming off his worst game of the season and disappointed a lot of managers as he was a popular play on Wednesday. His salary has gone down and he's in a good spot tonight against the depleted Clippers. Don't hesitate to go back to Gordon.
Gordon Hayward ($7,000)
Hayward had been valued in the high-7K range and even saw his salary rise all the way to $8,400 a couple weeks ago. He's still the same player and he's still covering big minutes, making the drop in salary a bit puzzling. I'd expect Hayward to be popular tonight.
Dejounte Murray ($6,100) and DeMar DeRozan ($6,800)
Both Murray and DeRozan have noticeably low salaries tonight. Just 10 days ago, Murray was valued at $8,100 while DeRozan was at $8,900. While those tags may have been too high, tonight they're definitely too low. I'd expect Murray to be popular.
Joe Ingles ($4,700)
Ingles started in place of Donovan Mitchell on Wednesday and scored 41 DK points in 30 minutes. If Mitchell misses again tonight, expect Ingles to be a chalky value play.
