This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Slate Overview
NO vs. MIA (-3.5), O/U: 223.5
GS vs. MIL (-10), O/U: 232
BKN (-3) vs. BOS, O/U: 227.5
DAL vs. LAL (-6), O/U: 227.5
LAC (-2.5) vs. DEN, O/U: 227.5
DraftKings Christmas Day slate features five games and tips off at 12:00 p.m. EST. The NO-MIA game is first up and it could be one to avoid - except for a few cheaper value plays - as it projects to be the lowest total on the slate. NBA DFS is often about reacting to news and making late changes. Many players still don't use the late-swap option, but it's a significant edge and provides the opportunity to react to news or make some leverage-based changes should you need to catch up. The GS-MIL matchup is a reasonable game to target as it boasts the highest total on the slate and features elite players. The LAC-DEN game is also appealing as it should be competitive and is the last game of the night, meaning players will be slightly lesser covered and able to provide a bit more leverage.
Injuries to Monitor
Jimmy Butler (ankle): QUESTIONABLE
Butler apparently tweaked his ankle on Opening Night and the team will wait and see how it responds before making a decision on his status. He seems likely to play and the $8,000 valuation is a bit low for a player who averaged 1.23 DK points last season and played 36 minutes last time out. If Butler is unable to go, Duncan Robinson ($4,400), Goran Dragic ($5,300) and Tyler Herro ($5,600) would become even better value plays.
Anthony Davis (calf): PROBABLE
Jamal Murray (calf): PROBABLE
Elite Players
Today's slate features six players who are at 10K or above. Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,900) comes in as the most expensive and projects best from a raw points perspective. Milwaukee offers the highest implied team total, so you should still play Giannis even though this matchup could be a blowout. A common misconception is that players from the winning team won't reach value if the game gets out of hand, but the reality is the game usually stays competitive for long enough and players produce at a higher per-minute rate which helps them reach value regardless.
Stephen Curry ($10,200) is up there and playing for the biggest underdog on the slate, so the next guy I would look to is Luka Doncic ($10,700). He experienced an off night shooting the ball in the opener, but a marquee matchup with the Lakers seems like a good spot to rebound. Doncic will have to shoulder the load with Kristaps Porzingis out injured again. It's also worth noting the Slovenian actually averages less DK points per minute without Porzingis on the floor.
Anthony Davis ($10,300) and LeBron James ($10,000) played 31 and 28 minutes respectively on Opening Night and both are hard to trust over the other elite guys. The Lakers have added more offensive talent this season and have talked about giving LeBron more rest. I think it's reasonable to fade both, but if I had to choose one it would be Davis.
Expected Chalk
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,900) is likely to be the most popular expensive player on the slate and rightfully so. He averaged 1.9 DK points per minute last season and his value is too close to the other studs. Giannis is probably a lock for cash games, but always worth a fade in GPPs as any of the top talent playing today could be the slate's highest scorer.
There are a few mid-range guards who should be chalky. Eric Bledsoe ($5,600) averaged 1.14 DK points per minute in Milwaukee last season and should fare similarly with the Pelicans. Assuming he plays at least 30 minutes, he will likely have no problem hitting value.
Jeff Teague ($4,200) looked impressive running the second unit for Boston last time out. Whether starting or coming off the bench, he should be able to reach value at his cheap valuation. The same can be said about Donte DiVincenzo ($4,700), who started and played 27 minutes last game.
Miami guards Duncan Robinson ($4,400), Goran Dragic ($5,300) and Tyler Herro ($5,600) won't be quite as popular, but should still draw significant interest. Robinson should see 30 minutes again and provides solid value, while Dragic and Herro are reasonable for point guards who can go off for ceiling games in the right script.
Value Picks
Paul Millsap ($4,900) struggled for consistent minutes last season. But with the departure of Jerami Grant, he should become a safer option and looks promising to hit value tonight. Michael Porter Jr. ($6,700) got in early foul trouble last game and only played 25 minutes in regulation. He's a good tournament option due to his ceiling potential and late-game leverage.
Jaylen Brown ($7,000) produced a big game on Wednesday by posting 33/5/4 with two steals and a block. He's valued too low for his usage with the absence of Kemba Walker. For the same reason, don't hesitate to go back to Marcus Smart ($6,700) - even though he struggled in the opener.
Maxi Kleber ($3,500) saw significant run off the bench in the last contest and should once again be provided with plenty of minutes to help deal with the Lakers' big frontcourt. He represents a solid cash option and will be popular in those formats, but may lack the ceiling to win you a GPP.
Bam Adebayo ($7,800) and Jimmy Butler ($8,000) encouragingly played big minutes last game and both remain excellent options tonight. They come at a discount compared to the slate's other top players and either could produce a ceiling performance.
