This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Friday's massive 11-game slate follows a Thursday slate with only six teams active, which leaves us with only one team on the tail-end of a back-to-back – the Lakers. If you caught any of that game, you watched The King up to his old tricks by carrying a team on his back to a victory and a gigantic stat line. They are a favorite tonight at home against the Mavericks, but with such a vast selection I might be inclined to shut this game down altogether, using the back-to-back as motivation.
At first glance, I see two games that stand out as contests we should focus on for some superior totals. At the forefront is the WAS/PHI matchup, where I think Joel Embiid ($10,900) emerges as my favorite 10K-plus player on the slate. With Dwight Howard (back) out indefinitely, the Wizards have resorted to a small-ball lineup that suffers mightily in defending big men. Luckily, those interior Wizards are reasonably priced, so guys like Otto Porter ($5,700) and Markieff Morris ($5,500) are low median players that figure to do well in this fast-paced matchup. The backcourts in this game are fine, but Bradley Beal ($8,200) is likely the only one I'll be able to afford.
The other game I'm endorsing is ATL/OKC, in a game where Russell Westbrook ($11,500) should dominate. Trae Young is a big-name rookie, but he's still developing as a defender and will have his hands full with Westbrook. I also like the stacking potential here, as a Westbrook/Adams ($18,300), or an even cheaper Westbrook/Jerami Grant ($16,000) combo are favorable. Paul George has fallen short of projections in four of his last five games, so I'm not as high on him.
INJURIES
There are severable questionable tags out there, but the preponderance of slow-paced games makes even mentioning most of them a waste of space because they are situations that I will likely be avoiding anyway.
MIAMI – Goran Dragic and Tyler Johnson remain OUT, so Josh Richardson ($7,700) stays at the top of the list as the best pivot, but I'm also good with Rodney McGruder ($4,800) against the Pelicans. This game is an 'honorable mention' behind the other endorsed games, with an O/U of 229.5. We'll inevitably stumble upon some Pelicans below.
Chris Paul – QUESTIONABLE: I predict Paul will be back tonight. If he returns, we are going to see James Harden fall back to earth a bit. If Paul sits, I don't know that I can take Harden in this slow-paced game on a slate with many options.
Aaron Gordon – QUESTIONABLE: PIVOT – Jonathan Simmons ($3,600)
Keeping players with price tags attached above in mind, let's get to my picks for the rest of the slate. I'll select three players at guard, forward and center accompanied by a small list of additional players in each category. When possible, I'll try to include a top-shelf player, a mid-range target and a low-cost value play at each spot.
GUARDS
Jrue Holiday, NO at MIA ($8,700): If you're a believer in Miami's defense, then I have no problem sliding to Ben Simmons here for $200 less. Holiday should be good for a floor of 40 DKFP, and could exceed that threshold in this matchup. In terms of consistency, I think Simmons' floor has taken a hit with Jimmy Butler in town, so Holiday is the more logical play here against the Heat, who are battling frontcourt injuries.
If you're going to afford some of the big guys you're going to need to pay down so here I go, WAY down –
Ryan Arcidiacono, CHI at DET ($4,400): If you follow college hoops, you know this guy already. The former Villanova sharpshooter has found an opportunity with the Bulls due to backcourt injuries. While his scoring leaves a bit to be desired, he pads his stat lines with ancillary categories on a nightly basis (five steals against the Bucks is a good example). Detroit's defense is underrated and tough, but he's a good candidate to meet value even in a blowout.
Elie Okobo, PHO vs. ORL ($3,000): I told you I was going low! Let's look at the logic here. The Suns had no problem letting go of Isaiah Canaan earlier in the week. Why would they do that? So that Jamal Crawford can play more? Doubtful. You've also got T.J. Warren with a questionable tag tonight, so I'm going to slide Okobo in and spend away with all that cash I'm saving.
Other guards to consider: Mike Conley, MEM at BKN ($8,300), Luka Doncic, DAL at LAL ($7,100), Wayne Ellington, MIA vs. NO ($4,400)
FORWARDS
Blake Griffin, DET vs. CHI ($9,600): I thought I had my high spend-up guys picked out, but then along comes Griffin. This spot checks all the boxes. A defense that ranks dead-last against his position, a previous game against the Bulls where he destroyed them with 61.5 DKFP, and a super-reliable floor – it's all there for Griffin. I'm not sure I'll be able to afford him, but if I end up tinkering before tip-off, I'll play out some scenarios where he fits.
Jayson Tatum, BOS vs. CLE ($6,500): I was tempted to go to the well with Julius Randle again, but Tatum will field a lower ownership, and he also finds himself against a weak Cleveland frontcourt that's given up big numbers to George, Butler, Covington and LeBron over the past five games. We're also seeing Tatum come around and look more like the 2017 version of himself.
Juancho Hernangomez, DEN at POR ($4,700): This is an even better value spot if Gary Harris remains out, but I think it's likely we'll see a bit of Harris tonight. If he plays, I doubt he'll have a full load. And when Harris Is off the floor, Hernangomez's usage spikes 2.5 percent. I'm limiting Juancho to GPP plays only.
Other forwards to consider: Nikola Mirotic, NO at MIA ($7,300), Paul Millsap, DEN at POR ($6,100), Jerami Grant, OKC vs. ATL ($4,500)
CENTERS
First off, I'll address the Embiid/Davis debate. I already endorsed Embiid, and I stand by that pick. The only knock on Davis is that he costs $800 more, and there's no denying that Miami's frontcourt defense isn't the best. You can't go wrong with either guy, but Embiid is in a unique spot against the Wizards tonight and I'm sticking with it.
Guys like Nikola Vucevic ($8,900) and Andre Drummond ($9,300) are easy to endorse. But if you're spending up, I don't see the logic in getting minimal price drops with these guys.
Jarrett Allen, BKN vs. MEM ($5,500): Let's put this in all caps. IF MARC GASOL SITS, Allen is a guy I'm willing to consider. We still don't have an update on Gasol, but I'm much less likely to make this play if he suits up. Gasol's absence would be a massive hit for Memphis and could change the fortunes for the Nets, but I'll limit my exposure to Brooklyn save this one contingency.
Other centers to consider: Steven Adams, OKC vs. ATL ($6,800)
