This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
We have two early games (MIN/BKN, MEM/LAC) that I'll be excluding in today's column but there's still a massive 12-game slate available at 7 PM ET. Let's first break down the injuries out there and see if we can find some value spots to exploit.
We're still without Steph Curry (groin), but I have this hunch the day will come when he'll suddenly be available right before tip-off. Although I doubt that will happen Friday. Kevin Durant ($10,700) remains the primary pivot here, and Klay Thompson ($6,700) should come close to meeting value as well. They are facing a tough Portland defense on Friday, so if I'm planning on spending up, I don't think it will be in this spot. I'm totally fine with Durant, but I'd stay away from the rest of the Warriors.
Goran Dragic (knee) is out and so is one of his pivots, Tyler Johnson (hamstring). If that wasn't confounding enough, Rodney McGruder is questionable with an undisclosed injury. It goes without saying that Josh Richardson ($7,300) could be bound for a one-way trip to Value Town against the Bulls. Hassan Whiteside (knee) is also questionable, and if you have the time to monitor the Heat closely, Bam Adebayo ($3,800) is your obvious pivot if Whiteside sits. Back to McGruder – if he sits out, I also favor a little bit of Justise Winslow ($4,500) and Wayne Ellington ($4,300) in GPP lineups, but I think Richardson is your best bet.
As for Kawhi Leonard (rest), it's anyone's guess. My instinct is that he'll play – everyone is playing on a day of rest, and even Leonard may start playing back-to-backs soon. Even if he plays, Kyle Lowry ($8,000) threw up 60 DKFP against the Hawks and should also fare well against the Wizards. He's already lit them up for 55 DKFP this season.
Let's now move on to my other selections for Black Friday. I'll be endorsing three players at each position, and I'll also supply a small additional list of picks for each category. When possible, I will endeavor to include a top-shelf player, a mid-range target and a low-cost value play for all positions.
GUARD
Damian Lillard, POR at GS ($9,000): Simply put, Lillard loves facing the Warriors. He probably will garner additional enjoyment without Steph Curry around. When he encountered a practically identical Golden State team last season, he exceeded projections in two of three games, putting up 48, 54 and 64 DKFP in those contests. His output has been a bit up-and-down over the past few games, but the potential for an explosive game is definitely in play. If you don't want to spend as much but still want a piece of this game, C.J. McCollum ($6,500) comes in at a great price, but his floor has been historically lower against the Warriors.
Gary Harris, DEN vs. ORL ($5,700): The Nuggets are somehow 11-7 despite some wildly disparate performances, but Harris – quite surprisingly – is the consistent guy in the starting five. The Magic have let guys like Ingram, Redick, and Beal post solid numbers against them, and I think Harris sets up equally well for a decent score on Friday. I wouldn't expect 50 DKFP or anything similar, but at this price, he only needs a solid mid-30's score to hit value.
Trey Burke, NY vs. NO ($4,400): We've seen four excellent games in a row for Burke, so it might be time to start trusting his usage. David Fitzdale has been challenging to figure out and has been almost Popovich-like in his ability to thwart DFS lineups. But for now, it looks like Burke is a (cautiously) safe bet. It's hard to argue with a DKFP average of 35.3 DKFP over the past five games, and his potential ceiling is equally appealing. When you're looking for value after spending top-dollar for others, Burke is a great target to find upon scrolling down.
Other guards to consider: Jrue Holiday, NO at NY ($8,300), DeMar DeRozan, SA at IND ($8,200), Lonzo Ball, LAL vs. UTA ($5,100)
FORWARDS
Paul George, OKC vs. CHA ($8,600): There are plenty of playable options up-top, but if you look at a guy like Ben Simmons, for example – if I am going to pay 9K, I need to get my money's worth. I want a guy like Giannis, who could give me 60 DKFP against Phoenix tonight. Unfortunately, he's 11.4K, and I've already made my super-high pick tonight (see below), so Paul George is better suited for my purposes. He's averaged 56.5 DKFP over the past five games, and although Charlotte has played George's position reasonably well, George should be able to have his way opposite Marvin Williams.
Julius Randle, NO at NY ($7,500): I wanted to go to cash favorite Khris Middleton against the Suns but he's one of the first guys to disappear in a blowout, which is a definite possibility. Conversely, I think the Knicks might find a way to keep this game somewhat competitive, and even if they don't, I like Randle in this spot. He's rarely going to give you 35 minutes anyway, and he doesn't do his damage incrementally. He comes in, does some damage, sits back down, then comes back in and does it again. OK, that was some pretty shoddy analysis I just gave you, but what I'm trying to say is Randle fits pretty much any game script, whether it's a blowout or a nail-biter.
Justin Holiday, CHI vs. MIA ($4,700): There's no doubt Holiday is a streaky player. He could very easily torpedo your lineup if his 3-point shot is cold. What I like about him tonight is that the Heat rank 26th in defending shots from beyond the arc, so Holiday will definitely have the opportunity to get hot. Whether he converts is another story entirely, but he's worth a shot in your GPP lineups.
Other forwards to consider: Jimmy Butler, PHI vs. CLE ($7,300), Pascal Siakam, TOR vs. WAS ($6,400), Jabari Parker, CHI vs. MIA ($5,800)
CENTERS
So, here's what I'm going to try to do.
Anthony Davis, NO at NY ($11,400) AND Joel Embiid, PHI vs. CLE ($10,600): When I looked at my options up top, I think Durant Is the only other guy to consider in this range in terms of massive output. I worry about LeBron and Giannis could be in line for a blowout. I'm not even sure I can find enough value to play both Embiid and Davis, but I am definitely going to try. Davis starting to look like a matchup-proof 60 DKFP play, and Embiid isn't that far behind him, as he's averaging close to 60 DKFP over his last six games. So, yep – this is where I'm starting in cash. If I cop out, I'll jettison Embiid first.
Deandre Ayton, PHO at MIL ($6,400): Ayton will be given all the minutes he can handle in a game that has blowout written all over it. Weirdly enough, if you look at the Suns' schedule, Ayton has actually logged fewer minutes in close games. When the game is a blowout, either way, he's out there for 30-plus minutes. Over the last 10 games, he's only dipped below 30 minutes on the court once, so whatever the outcome is, Ayton will be out there enough to give you a good score.
Dewayne Dedmon, ATL vs. BOS ($4,200): It looks like the tide might be turning to Dedmon instead of Alex Len in Atlanta. Boston is tough but they've been a weak offensive rebounding team, and this is a metric I can get behind. Those who paid for Durant will need a budget option at center. And in terms of upside, I think Dedmon is the play in this range.
Other centers to consider: Nikola Vucevic, ORL at DEN ($8,100), LaMarcus Aldridge, SA at IND ($7,800)
