This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Friday's eight-game slate has plenty to offer us regarding exploitable value due to injury, so it's best we tackle that part of the landscape before we move forward.
First, it looks like the Rockets will still be without James Harden (hamstring). And while the sensible pivot is Chris Paul, in this case, a closer look at his stat lines over the past week show us that meeting or beating value at his price hasn't been happening. The same can be said for Eric Gordon, who in the past has been the primary beneficiary when Paul and Harden sit. For me, the big pivot here is Carmelo Anthony ($5,800) for your GPP lineups. I don't think his floor is quite reliable enough for cash, but if he gets 30 minutes or more on the floor, we could easily see 30 DKFP from him against the Nets.
No doubt about it – Donovan Mitchell (hamstring) is out tonight. I'd tread lightly when it comes to a play for Dante Exum ($3,700), even though he might be irresistible at this price. One argument for him is that the sharks will predict his high ownership and fade Exum. I think that a lot of Mitchell's output will slide over to Ricky Rubio ($5,700) and Joe Ingles ($6,800), and that's a two-player stack that I have no problem endorsing.
Finally, pay close attention to Jeff Teague's (knee) status coming into tonight's game against the Warriors. If he sits, you've got to run with Derrick Rose ($5,400). Don't fall into the trap that was Tyus Jones – that late scratch was indeed a Halloween surprise, and I saw ownership in the 70 to 80 percent range at tip-off. That's something that's just going to happen sometimes, with or without late swap. He could end up playing tonight, but I think Rose is a safer play.
Back-to-back teams: Clippers, Thunder
Despite the back-to-back, a stack of Russell Westbrook ($10,900) and Paul George ($9,000), while a pricey proposition, could be the core of a cash lineup or two if you can spend down elsewhere.
I'll now select three players at each position along with a small list of additional players to target. When possible, I will endeavor to include a top-shelf player, a mid-range target, and a low-cost value play at each spot.
GUARDS
Kyle Lowry, TOR at PHO ($8,400): He's on a streak of six straight double-doubles, and he's also averaging 49.1 DKFP on the road. Sure, it's a long flight, but I don't think there's any cause to worry about Lowry – which is precisely why I'm endorsing him. As long as he stays this cheap, it's hard to find a legitimate reason to fade him.
Mike Conley, MEM at UTA ($7,000): I smell a big game coming from Conley without Mitchell on the floor, and this contest has upset written all over it. The Grizzlies are getting plus-7 in this game, and I'd gladly place that bet. Memphis is now 4-2 and well-rested, and the game script for Conley is too good to pass up. Look for his numbers to go through the roof.
J.J. Barea, DAL vs. NY ($4,100): Some people aren't big fans of plus-minus. In fact, some people hate it as a metric for evaluating performance. If you don't know what it is, it's an indicator of how well the team is performing when a player is in the game. If you look at J.J. Barea compared to Dennis Smith, you see a stark contrast between the two players. There have been a few games where this gap has been even more disparate, but so far this season Smith has a plus-minus of -41 while Barea sits at +8. A team's overall performance can skew these numbers, but it tells a story worth considering. Barea is showing that he's just the better player off the bench right now, and I think the numbers show he's capable of beating value at $4,100 on any given night.
Other guards to consider: John Wall, WAS vs. OKC ($8,100), D'Angelo Russell, BKN vs. HOU ($6,200), Lou Williams, LAC at ORL ($5,500)
FORWARDS
Kawhi Leonard, TOR at PHO ($10,100): Barring a rest designation, I think a Lowry/Leonard stack is the best high-priced stack of the night. Who am I kidding? It's an excellent stack for any night. I especially like the matchup despite the extensive travel time. If on the off-chance they do rest Leonard, you can pivot right over to Kevin Durant ($9,900), who should offer similar totals against the Timberwolves. Leonard's attempted 118 shots so far this season, and he's converting 50.4 percent of them, which puts him at eighth in the league among small forwards.
T.J. Warren, PHO vs. TOR ($5,000): Warren seems to get a lot of garbage minutes when the game gets out of hand, and that could very well be the case against the Raptors. The Spurs absolutely thrashed Phoenix on Halloween, and Warren saw a season-high 36 minutes. His DKFP average is only currently in the mid-20s, but those numbers are sure to go up if he continues to enjoy that kind of usage.
Pascal Siakam, TOR at PHO ($4,800): Siakam is now firmly planted in Toronto's starting lineup after an impressive start. Although they may rotate him out in matchup-dependent situations, he's still going to see close to 30 minutes per game. He's currently on a four-game tear where he's averaging 33.9 DKFP per game. You'd be hard-pressed to find that kind of output at this price point.
Other forwards to consider: Draymond Green, GS vs. MIN ($6,900), Thaddeus Young, IND at CHI ($5,200), P.J. Tucker, HOU at BKN ($4,500)
CENTERS
Nikola Vucevic, ORL vs. LAC ($8,600): Vucevic should have an easy time against Marcin Gortat and a Clippers team that's played two In a row. While I love what DeAndre Jordan ($8,300) has been up to this season, I think Vucevic will offer a bit more tonight. He's coming off two days of rest after putting up 46.25 DKFP against the Kings.
Dwight Howard, WAS vs. OKC ($6,200): I'd only endorse him in a GPP, but Howard's return to the court could provide some fireworks. If we hear later today he'll be on a minutes restriction, then I'd gladly erase this pick and pivot elsewhere, but I believe they will give him all that his back can handle.
Wendell Carter, Jr, CHI vs. IND ($5,000): I'm glad I stuck with my instincts and snagged him in my seasonal league. Carter has come alive recently, with a vast 55 DKFP game against a tough Nuggets team on Halloween. It appears the starting center position is now his to lose. He still needs some work on his shot, but he should produce enough to give you value here – provided he sees around 30 minutes.
Other centers to consider: Rudy Gobert, UTA vs. MEM ($8,200), Jonas Valanciunas, TOR at PHO ($5,300)
