Top MLB Betting Picks for June 24: MLB Same-Game Parlays and Props
2026 Regular-Season Betting Record: 6-6-1 (-2.79 units)
2026 Regular-Season Player Props Betting Record: 6-7 (-1.84 units)
Two formidable NL contenders wrap up a three-game series out west with this Wednesday night clash, one that features a pair of veteran arms facing off as the Padres try to pull off what would be a very impressive three-game sweep of a talented 48-30 Atlanta squad.
San Diego has a winning record despite also sporting a -8 run differential, and despite their victories over the first two games of the series, there's reason to believe the Friars may struggle with offense in the finale.
With the stage set, let's examine a same-game parlay and a player prop for tonight's game:
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MLB Picks for Atlanta at Padres
- SGP: Atlanta moneyline and Under 7.5 runs - F5 (+110 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Drake Baldwin 2+ Hits + Runs + RBI (-115 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
Atlanta at San Diego Padres Best Bets
Atlanta and San Diego trot out veteran southpaw Martin Perez and promising right-hander Randy Vasquez, who've garnered six wins apiece in the first half of the season thus far.
Through 15 appearances (11 starts), Perez is just below halfway to his career-high win total of 13, which he accomplished with the Rangers in 2016. His current 6-3 mark is accompanied by a career-low 2.78 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, and he's allowed more than three earned runs just twice. Perez's home-run numbers have always had an unusual rollercoaster pattern to them, and they're on a welcome downswing this season – he boasts an impressively modest 0.8 HR/9 through 68 innings.
Perez's Statcast numbers don't sully his surface numbers too much, instead lending an extra layer of legitimacy to his impressive start. He's seen a welcome and significant drop in barrel rate allowed from last season's career-worst 15.0 percent to 6.4 percent, and his .247 xBA, .309 xwOBA and 3.91 xERA are all well within acceptable range.
Perez has also been crafty about working out of trouble, limiting the opposition to a .167 average and .521 OPS with runners in scoring position. He's been largely effective the first half of games, limiting opponents to averages of .189 or lower in the first, second and fourth innings and a .234 figure in the fifth frame as well. Then, he's held current Padres bats to a collective .209 average and .586 OPS across 76 career plate appearances, and San Diego sports a .202 average, .271 wOBA and -10.4 wRAA against left-handed pitching at home since May 1.
On the other side, Vasquez has a so-so 6-5 record, 4.17 ERA and 1.40 WHIP through 15 starts, and he's surprisingly encountered his most trouble at his relatively pitcher-friendly home venue of Petco Park. The righty has 4.99 ERA, 1.59 WHIP and 1.8 HR/9 across 39.2 home innings, also allowing a .294 opponent average and .380 wOBA in that 178-batter split.
Vasquez also doesn't emerge from his Statcast review anywhere near as clean as Perez, as the former is carrying a .297 xBA, .541 xSLG, .385 xwOBA and massive 6.47 xERA. Additionally, he's allowing career highs in barrel rate (13.0%) and hard-hit rate (45.7%), and he's conceding wOBAs of .386 or higher on three of his pitches – the sweeper, sinker and cutter, with the latter two profiling as his second- and third-most-often-thrown offerings.
In contrast to Perez, Vasquez has had his fair share of trouble early in games, giving up 33 of his 37 runs on the season over the first four innings. He's also surrendered an OPS of between .775 and 1.012 in those frames this season, and an Atlanta team that's averaged the second-most runs per first five innings per road game (3.1) therefore makes for an especially dangerous opponent.
Given the numbers cited and Atlanta's potent set of bats, a same-game parlay that banks on Walt Weiss' squad being ahead at the end of five innings and the Under on an elevated total of 7.5 runs in that same span for a game that carries a full-game total of 8.0 runs appears to have plenty of statistical support.
Then, Atlanta's star catcher Drake Baldwin comes into Wednesday mired in a highly atypical 0-for-20 slump over his last five games, with his primary issue being he simply isn't making contact – he's struck out at an absurd 61.9 percent clip in that small sample.
While those struggles would appear to make him a counterintuitive candidate for a 2+ Hits + Runs + RBI prop, Baldwin is simply too talented a hitter to remain stuck in those doldrums and Vasquez, who's not an elite strikeout pitcher, has pitched to a .292 BAA and 1.65 WHIP against left-handed hitters at home.
Additionally, Baldwin happens to hit the two pitches Vasquez throws most of often to lefty bats very well – he owns .413 and .367 wOBAs against the four-seam fastball and cutter, respectively. Then, Padres relievers have pitched to a somewhat elevated 4.00 ERA against lefty bats at home this month, furthering Baldwin's case for at least some modest success.
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MLB Picks Recap
- SGP: Atlanta moneyline and Under 7.5 runs - F5 (+110 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Drake Baldwin 2+ Hits + Runs + RBI (-115 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
