Three Up, Three Down: Orioles, Red Sox, Yankees

As we all know, prospect development is not linear. Players who look to be the next big thing will have down years only to bounce back a year — or more — later, and prospects that looked like organizational depth become potential stars only to face regression the next season. A prospect list is just a moment in time, and those players very rarely remain stagnant in their respective spot.

Let's take a look at some prospects who saw their stocks rise and fall from where they began 2023, starting with three clubs in the American League East.

Baltimore Orioles

Three Up

Samuel Basallo, C: Basallo was given the biggest signing bonus ever for a Baltimore prospect back in 2021 (it's worth pointing out that the figure was "only" $1.3 million, so a bit of faint praise here), and after two solid if unspectacular seasons, he blossomed in 2023. The lefty-handed hitting backstop reached Double-A while compiling a .953 OPS and 20 homers in 114 games over three levels, and he showed off easy plus power from the left side along with a strong approach at the plate.

Level of optimism: High. It's not Ethan Salas crazy, but being able to reach Double-A as a 19-year-old is pretty dang impressive. While he's not the best defender behind the plate, there's enough athleticism and plenty of arm strength to suggest he can be a professional backstop. In a year where many catching prospects saw their stocks drop, Basallo now can easily be called a top-five — if not higher — prospect at the position.

Chayce McDermott, RHP: The Orioles acquired McDermott from Houston in the deal for Trey Mancini, and the 25-year-old had easily his best professional season with a 3.10 ERA and 152/68 K/BB ratio, with his final 10 appearances coming with Triple-A Norfolk. He shows two plus pitches in his fastball and slider, and he'll keep hitters honest with a solid change and usable curve as well.

Level of optimism: Moderate. McDermott has the stuff to start. The question is whether or not he's going to repeat his delivery well enough to do so. His command projects at about 40 on the 20-80 scouting scale, and while we've seen pitchers succeed with that ability — or lack thereof — it means the stuff is going to have to max out. I would be intrigued to see what McDermott could do as a multi-inning reliever if Baltimore feels he won't throw enough quality strikes to be a rotation member.

Coby Mayo, 3B: A fourth-round pick in 2020, Mayo disappointed in 2020 with a .247/.326/.456 slash, but he bounced back in 2023 with 29 homers, 93 walks and a .973 OPS in a near-even split between Double-A Bowie and Norfolk. The 6-foot-5 infielder has plus-plus power in his right-handed bat, and while he's not exactly fleet of foot, he does possess a 70-grade arm that gives him a chance to stay at the hot corner.

Level of optimism: Moderate. The offensive tools are there, and if Mayo was in a different system, there would likely be a lot more attention paid to what he did in 2023. That being said, there's considerable swing-and-miss in his profile (148 strikeouts in 504 at-bats), and at 6-foot-5 and 230 pounds, a move to first base still seems likely even with the weapons-grade arm. The bat absolutely has a chance to play there, however.

Three Down

Cade Povich, LHP: Povich missed plenty of bats in 2022 and was a big piece of the trade that shipped Jorge Lopez to Minnesota, and he did so again in 2023 with 171 strikeouts over 126.2 innings at the Double-A and Triple-A levels. He also missed the strike zone plenty, too, walking 66 batters, and some blow-up outings saw him finish the season with a 5.04 ERA over 28 starts.

Level of concern: Moderate. Some of that depends on what your expectations for Povich are, but this is still a left-hander with four competent pitches including a plus change, and there were flashes of brilliance in 2023 even with the disappointing numbers. He still has a chance to be a solid backend starter, but the command has to make a jump in 2024.

Frederick Bencosme, SS: Bencosme hit above .300 in 2021 and 2022 while showing a swing that can make consistent contact to all parts of the field, but there wasn't much hard contact in 2023 with High-A Aberdeen as seen in his .246/.338/.319 slash line. A player that was considered a potential breakout candidate in 2023 went the other way this summer.

Level of concern: Moderate to high. Bencosme has quality hand-eye coordination and has enough speed to be a threat on the bases (28 steals over 114 games with the IronBirds), but there's almost zero power in his left-handed bat, and he's unlikely to be a stalwart at shortstop.

Reed Trimble, OF: Trimble was limited to just 16 games because of injury in 2023, and after being the 65th pick of the 2021 draft out of Southern Mississippi, he's been able to play in just 71 games over three minor-league seasons.

Level of concern: High. There was a lot to like about Trimble in that draft because of his plus-plus speed, strong defense and potential for power, but the switch-hitter has hit just .231/.321/.303 in his 251 at-bats. At this point, it appears the 23-year-old is just organizational depth. A bummer, especially considering how much potential he showed as a member of the Southern Miss roster.

Boston Red Sox

Three Up

Roman Anthony, OF: Anthony was far from an unknown coming into the 2023 season as the 79th pick of the 2022 draft, but to say things escalated quickly is an understatement. The 19-year-old homered 14 times in 106 games with an .869 OPS that was buoyed by 86 walks, and he also added 16 stolen bases for good measure all while reaching Double-A for his final 10 games of the 2023 campaign.

Level of optimism: High. Those numbers are impressive, but they're even more so when you see that Anthony hit just .228 with a .316 slugging percentage in his 158 at-bats with Low-A Salem. The left-handed hitting outfielder has plus power — perhaps higher — with solid athleticism and a swing that should allow him to hit for a competent average as well. Anthony might not be a star, but if there's such a thing as a high-floor 19-year-old, here ya go.

Luis Perales, RHP: Perales wasn't a bonus darling when he signed in 2019 — the Red Sox gave him $75,000 out of Venezuela — but he's quickly established himself as one of the better hurlers in the system. There's still projection in his right arm, but the 20-year-old can get up to 99 mph with late life, and he has a plus slider that has cut-like action at times but also can be manipulated into a more traditional offering. Add in a change that gets average grades, and the stuff is here for Perales to be a MLB starter.

Level of optimism: Moderate. The stuff is certainly there for Perales. The ability to command it is a bit of work-in-progress, which isn't a surprise for a player who doesn't turn 21 until the middle of April. There's risk because of his lack of experience and 6-foot-1, 160-pound frame, but with that risk comes plenty of reward.

Yoeilin Cespedes, SS: Boston was willing to give Cespedes a $1.4 million bonus in January, and so far, he looks well worth that investment and then some. (Note: the Red Sox would be just fine even if he didn't.) Despite being just 5-foot-9, the right-handed hitting infielder projects to hit for power thanks to his impressive bat speed, but the calling-card here is a hit tool that has a chance to be plus thanks to his ability to recognize pitches and his smooth, line-drive swing.

Level of optimism: Moderate to high. There's a long way to go for Cespedes — no relation to Yoenis or Yoelqui, by the way — and the fact that he hasn't played stateside means you have to acknowledge some risk. After hitting .346/.392/.560 in the DSL, however, on top of the positive reports, it'd be hard to deny that the 18-year-old has some of the best upside in the Boston system.

Three Down

Mikey Romero, INF: The 24th pick of the 2022 MLB Draft, Romero was limited to just 34 games because of a back injury, and he didn't perform particularly well in those outings as seen in a .580 OPS over 126 at-bats before being shut down again near the end of August.

Level of concern: Moderate to high. I thought Romero was a slight overdraft in the first place, and being limited to just 205 total at-bats over his first two professional seasons obviously doesn't help. That said, I do think he has a swing and approach that should allow him to hit for a solid average with a similarly strong on-base percentage, and with some swing adjustments he could provide a decent amount of pop. There's just more risk than reward at this point, however.

Matthew Lugo, INF: Of all the prospects mentioned in this addition, Lugo probably saw his stock drop the most. After hitting 18 homers and swiping 20 bases with an .830 slash in 2022, the infielder hit just .242/.297/.381 over 83 games with 89 strikeouts over 289 at-bats.

Level of concern: High. Lugo has now failed to hit in three of his four seasons in the Boston organization, as 2022 was the only year that he's posted an OPS above .750 thus far. His approach also seems to be going backwards, and he's unlikely to be able to be an everyday shortstop defensively. At age 22 there's time for him to figure things out, but there's just been too much inconsistency — to put it nicely — since he was selected 69th back in 2019.

Miguel Bleis, OF: How much you want to say Bleis saw his stock drop is subjective — all of this is subjective, of course — but it would be difficult to argue it went up, anyway. The outfielder went deep just once in his 126 at-bats for Low-A Salem, and he slashed .230/.282/.325 before being sidelined for the remainder of the year with season-ending shoulder surgery.

Level of concern: Moderate to low. Obviously it's a disappointing season, but there's still plenty of reason to be optimistic in the long-term with Bleis. He shows five plus tools and won't turn 20 until the start of March. A lost developmental year hurts, but it's far from a death sentence in terms of Bleis living up to his potential. Expect a bounceback season — assuming good health, of course — in 2024.

New York Yankees

Three Up

Drew Thorpe, RHP: In a season that saw the Yankees disappoint, there was good news in the minors, including Thorpe being named Pitching Prospect of the Year at the MiLB Awards Show. The right-hander was able to strike out a whopping 182 batters in just over 139 innings with a 2.52 ERA and 0.98 WHIP, with his last five starts (1.48 ERA, 44:5 K:BB) coming with Double-A Somerset in his first full professional season.

Level of optimism: Moderate to high. Those expecting Thorpe to miss bats at the level he did in 2023 will likely come away disappointed. None of his pitches grade double-plus — although the change isn't far from that — and he typically sits in the low-to-mid 90s with his fastball. That said, he commands everything with good movement to his arsenal, and it's hard to not see Thorpe developing into at least a mid-rotation starter at this stage.

Chase Hampton, RHP: Hampton might be the most improved pitching prospect in baseball and gives Thorpe a run for his money as the best hurler in the New York system. He struck out 145 batters against 37 walks over his 106.2 innings, and the 22-year-old was able to make 11 of his 20 starts in Double-A. The Yankees could remember the 2022 draft class quite fondly, as they were able to get Hampton in the sixth round after picking up Thorpe in the second on top of first-rounder Spencer Jones.

Level of optimism: High. Hampton doesn't have the polish Thorpe does, but he should throw more than enough strikes to be a starter at the highest level. He gets plenty of spin on his mid-90s fastball, and he complements that heater with two swing-and-miss breaking balls. There's a solid floor because of his complete arsenal, but the ceiling is pretty dang high for Hampton with three plus pitches as well.

Ben Rice, C/1B: There are lots of players that deserve to be mentioned with the Yankees including Everson Pereira — yes, he still counts despite his struggles in the majors — but I wanted to spotlight Rice as one of the more underrated hitters in the system, if not all of baseball. The 363rd pick of the 2021 draft, Rice registered a 1.049 OPS over 275 at-bats and hit .327/.401/.648 in 48 games with Double- Somerset.

Level of optimism: Moderate. Rice is a 24-year-old who turns 25 before the start of the season, so while he wasn't necessarily "old" for the level, it's something to keep in mind. He's always shown good feel for the barrel, but he tapped into his power more than anticipated, and he could earn a 55 grade in that regard as he continues to incorporate his lower half. He may need to move to first base — and his value would drop considerably if that was the case — but the offensive upside to be a starting catcher is palpable with Rice.

Three Down

Alexander Vargas, SS: Vargas was given a $2.5 million bonus in August of 2018 and looked to be on the rise after a solid '21 season (.273/.362/.393), but he's gone backwards the last two years. After hitting just .203 in 2022, he registered an ugly .590 OPS with High-A Hudson Valley last summer with a 116/24 K/BB ratio.

Level of concern: High. From a fantasy perspective, anyway. Vargas may have a future as an MLB player because of his defense and speed, as he has the tools to be a plus defender when all is said and done. With very little power and an approach that hasn't developed, however, it's difficult to see him being anything more than a utility player, at best.

Trey Sweeney, SS: Sweeney's drop in rankings for the Yankees has as much to do with other players taking a positive step as anything, but it was another so-so season for the 20th pick of the 2021 draft. He did steal 20 bases while posting a very solid .367 on-base percentage, but it came with just a .252 average, 13 homers and a .411 slugging mark at the Double-A level.

Level of concern: Moderate to high. There were good things on display for Sweeney in 2023, particularly when he squared off against right-handed pitching, as he managed an .839 OPS over his 367 plate appearances against righties. He was a disaster against lefties, however, with a .161/.295/.264 slash while striking out 31 times in 105 chances. It wouldn't be unheard of for a player of Sweeney's age (23) and skill set to gain more feel against same-handed pitching, but there's no evidence to suggest he's anything more than a platoon player right now.

Yoendrys Gomez, RHP: Gomez entered the 2022 season as one of the best pitching prospects in the New York system, but after another injury-riddled season, his stock has fallen considerably. He also struggled to throw consistent strikes, with 37 free passes over his 65.1 innings of work in Somerset.

Level of concern: Moderate. Just take a look at the two innings Gomez threw in his MLB debut against Toronto on September 28 for why I can't write Gomez off. He has two swing-and-miss pitches in his fastball and slider, while he can also keep hitters honest with an average change and curve. There's loads of risk with the 24-year-old considering he's never appeared in more than 15 games in a season, but he's someone I'd want on my dynasty radar because the upside is so palpable.