Three Up, Three Down: Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Giants

As we all know, prospect development is not linear. Players that look to be the next big thing will have down years only to bounce back a year — or more — later, and prospects that looked like organizational depth become potential stars only to face regression the next season. A prospect list is just a moment in time, and those players very rarely remain stagnant in their respective spot. 

This week, let's take a look at the prospects who saw their stock rise — and some whose stock fell — from the Dodgers, Diamondbacks and Giants. 

Los Angeles Dodgers

Three Up

Nick Frasso, RHP: Frasso was certainly on the radar after registering a 1.83 ERA and 76:17 K:BB over 16 starts in 2022, but his stock continued to rise despite his "worse" numbers in 2023, including a 3.77 ERA and 107:31 K:BB while pitching for Double-A Tulsa and Triple-A Oklahoma City. 

Level of optimism: Moderate-to-high. Sure the numbers pale in comparison, but watching Frasso it's obvious why most consider him to be the best pitching prospect in the Dodgers' system right now. The 25-year-old can touch 100 mph with plenty of life on his fastball, and he has a plus change and above-average slider for good measure. The command needs work and the fact he'll turn 26 next October suggests there's not much development left, but it's very easy to see Frasso helping the Dodgers and fantasy rosters in 2024. 

Payton Martin, RHP: Drafted with the 525th pick in the 2022 draft (17th round), Martin came out of nowhere to post some of the best numbers of any Los Angeles hurler in the minors. He appeared in 12 games for Low-A Rancho Cucamonga while striking out 48 hitters over 39.2 frames with a 2.04 ERA. 

Level of optimism: Moderate-to-high. Martin didn't throw another pitch after July 7, which isn't a surprise for a player who has so little pitching experience and doesn't turn 20 until May. He showed two plus pitches in his fastball and slider, and he's already touching the high 90s with a projectable frame that suggests he'll be able to do it on a consistent basis. The change will need to develop and his command is obviously in the developmental stages, but there's big-time upside in Martin's right arm. 

Thayron Liranzo, C: After posting two solid — if unspectacular — seasons in the short-season levels, Liranzo made his full-season debut in 2023, and it couldn't have gone much better. He hit .272 with a .962 OPS with Rancho Cucamonga while homering 24 times and picking up 50 extra-base hits over 345 at-bats. 

Level of optimism: Moderate. Liranzo has easy plus power, and the switch-hitter could hit 30-plus homers if he maxes out in that tool. He also has a strong approach at the plate as seen in his 105 walks in 156 career MiLB games, but because he will get behind in counts and has some length to his swing, the average isn't likely to be a strong suit. He's a solid enough defensive catcher with a good arm, so as long as the contact issues — both swing-and-miss and weak — are kept to a minimum, he could be a starting backstop someday.

Three Down

Diego Cartaya, C: There may not have been a prospect who had a more disappointing season in 2023 than Cartaya when you factor in his lofty expectations. In 354 at-bats at the Double-A level, the backstop hit just .189/.278/.379 with 117 strikeouts in his 93 games.

Level of concern: Moderate. Cartaya entered the year considered one of — if not the — best catching prospects in baseball, and it's tough to forget just how good he looked prior to the 2023 campaign. There's still above-average power in his right-handed bat with a willingness to work counts, but the strikeouts were problematic, and he's not considered an elite defender behind the plate, either. Considering Cartaya's previous prospect pedigree and the fact that he's still just 22, it'd still be a mistake to write him off, but he's going to have to show vast improvement in 2024. 

Gavin Stone, RHP: At this point last year, the debate was whether Stone or Bobby Miller was the better pitching prospect in the Los Angeles system. Those debates do not carry over into 2024, as Miller showed huge upside for the Dodgers, while Stone was ineffective in the majors with a 9.00 ERA over 31 innings and a pedestrian 4.74 mark with Triple-A Oklahoma City over 100.2 innings.

Level of concern: Moderate. There's no question that Stone has the stuff to succeed at the highest level, with three pitches that flash plus including a plus-plus change. The question is whether or not he has the command for that stuff to matter — at least as a starter — and if he can keep the ball in the park. Stone still has significant upside, but there's a lot more risk than previously thought.

Jose Ramos, OF: Ramos hit well in 2021 and 2022, but he didn't find the same level of success at the Double-A level with Tula. The 22-year-old hit just .240 over his 416 plate appearances with the Drillers with 140 strikeouts in 416 at-bats. 

Level of concern: Moderate. Ramos has a high floor because he's a strong defensive player with solid speed, a weapons-grade throwing arm and quality instincts, and there's at least above-average power in his right-handed bat as well. The issue is (obviously) the strikeouts, and whether or not the pop can make up for those issues. I have my doubts, but can't completely rule him out considering his age and athleticism.  

Arizona Diamondbacks

Three Up 

Yu-Min Lin, LHP: Signed out of Taiwan in December of 2021, Lin showed his impressive 2022 season was no fluke, as he followed up a 91:22 K:BB over 56.2 innings with 140 punchouts over 121.1 innings while reaching Double-A, recording a 3.86 ERA and .222 average allowed over 24 starts. 

Level of optimism: Moderate-to-high. Lin, 20, doesn't have an elite fastball, and at 5-foot-11, 160-pounds, he's lacking the typical size you see from pitchers in a rotation. What he lacks in those qualities, however, he makes up for with three plus secondary pitches, and his command improves every year. The margin of error for a pitcher like Lin is relatively thin, but assuming the secondaries remain at a similar quality, there's every reason to believe he can be a starter — and a pretty good one — in the coming seasons. 

Kristian Robinson, OF: Robinson did not play a single game from the end of 2019 to the start of 2023 because of an arrest, mental-health issues and also problems with his visa that stemmed from his legal issues. He was considered one of the top prospects in the system prior to 2019, and he reminded us of his talent in 2023 by slashing .283/.382/.532 with 14 homers and 23 stolen bases over 233 at-bats. 

Level of optimism: Moderate-to-high. Robinson's missed time is obviously concerning, but there didn't appear to be much rust to shake off for a player who turned 22 this week. There's at least four plus tools that will show up, and he could be a solid defender at any of the three outfield spots. Because of the off-field issues there's some inherent risk with Robinson, but there's also loads of upside if he can stay on the field.

Cristofer Torin, SS: Arizona paid Torin a (relatively) small bonus of $240,000 to sign the infielder out of Venezuela in 2022, and he's quickly established himself as one of the better hitting prospects in the D-Backs' system. He reached full-season baseball as an 18-year-old, and he finished the 2023 season with a slash of .272/.369/.354 with four homers and 21 stolen bases in 243 at-bats over 65 games.

Level of optimism: Moderate-to-high. Torin's numbers were significantly better last year in the Rookie League (.864 OPS) than in the Cal League (.614), but that's to be expected for a player who won't turn 19 until the end of May. The right-handed hitting shortstop is an excellent defender so he should have no trouble sticking at shortstop, and his smooth, line-drive swing along with quality pitch-recognition skills suggests he'll be able to hit for average. There's not much apparent power, but four tools that have a chance to be above 60 makes Torin a great buy-low fantasy prospect.

Three Down

Druw Jones, OF: The second-pick of the 2022 draft, Jones has dealt with injuries since entering the professional ranks, and injuries to his quad and hamstring limited him to just 41 games in 2023 — 29 of them at the full-season level. He ended the year on a hot streak, but his overall slash line of .238/.353/.327 in 147 at-bats left a bit to be desired. 

Level of concern: Moderate-to-low. It's not as if Jones saw his stock plummet in 2023 — he's still widely considered a top-50 prospect, conservatively — but there are some issues that need to be worked out. That's true for most teenagers (Jones turned 20 in November), but there are some significant contact issues, and the plus power potential he showed as a prep wasn't necessarily obvious in 2023. He's still a double-plus defender with an arm that gets similar grades, and there were more than enough flashes to suggest there's still a significant ceiling. Jones should be fine, but there's definitely risk that comes with the reward. 

Blake Walston, LHP: It was another disappointing season for Walston, a pitcher who was once considered among the best southpaw prospects in the sport. He followed up a 4.79 ERA in 2022 with a 4.52 mark in 2023 for Triple-A Reno with a 104:93 K:BB over 149.1 innings in the Pacific Coast League. 

Level of concern: High. Walston's command was never elite, but he took a massive step backwards with the aforementioned 93 free passes. The perceived projection also hasn't come in a fastball that sits in the low 90s, and while he does show quality secondary offerings, there isn't much consistency in that regard, either. Walston looked like a potential mid-rotation starter or better a few years ago but now projects to be organizational fodder. The good news is there's time to change that for a prospect who won't turn 23 until June. 

Landon Sims, RHP: Sims was one of the most dominant closers in college baseball history as a member of Mississippi State and was drafted with the 34th pick in the 2022 MLB Draft. Unfortunately, his professional career has stalled after he underwent Tommy John surgery prior to being drafted, and he posted just a 5.47 ERA in his 15 appearances after returning to the mound last June. 

Level of concern: Low. Sims had issues with his control, which is understandable given how much time he missed. He still showed a plus fastball and slider, and his change has a chance to be a competent third offering as well. I have my doubts that Sims can develop into a starter, but there's very little doubt that Sims has the stuff to potentially be an excellent reliever at the highest level. 

San Francisco Giants

Three Up

Rayner Arias, OF: Arias was signed for around $2.7 million this January, and it hasn't taken long for those who have watched the outfielder to understand why. The 17-year-old scorched Dominican Summer League pitching to the tune of .414/.539/.793 with four homers over his 58 at-bats and now ranks among the best players in the San Francisco system. 

Level of optimism: Moderate-to-high. The only reason why I offer a moderate caveat is that he hasn't seen full-season pitching yet and won't turn 18 until the end of April. That being said, all the tools are here for Arias to become a middle-of-the-order hitter with a chance for a plus hit and power tool, and he's a competent defender in the outfielder as well. Of course we have to see how he makes adjustments at the higher levels, but in terms of just pure talent, Arias is the best prospect in the San Francisco system, in my estimation. 

Mason Black, RHP: Black was drafted with the 85th pick out of Lehigh in the 2021 MLB Draft, and he's seen his stock shoot up over the last two seasons. The 24-year-old made 29 starts at the upper levels in 2023 while procuring a 3.57 ERA and 155 strikeouts against 52 walks over 123.2 innings.

Level of optimism: Moderate. Black certainly has a feel for missing bats, and the stuff suggests he should be able to do it at the professional level with a fastball that touches 98 mph and a plus slider. He needs to show more consistency with his change, however, and his command is just so-so at this point. It's easy to see him having success in relief if the starting thing doesn't work out, but the Giants will give him every chance to be a rotation member. They should, as there's definitely upside in his right arm that suggests he can pitch every sixth day. 

Hayden Birdsong, RHP: The Giants selected Birdsong out of Eastern Illinois in the sixth round of 2022, and he appears to have been quite a find based on what he's done since joining the San Francisco system. In his first full professional season, the right-hander registered an impressive 149:44 K:BB in 100.2 innings over 28 appearances — 25 starts — while reaching Double-A Richmond.

Level of optimism: Moderate-to-high. It's worth pointing out that Birdsong didn't have much success with Richmond as his ERA bumped up to 5.48 in his eight appearances in the Eastern League. He certainly passed the eye test for the majority of the year, however, as the 6-foot-4 right-hander showed a fastball that gets up to 97 mph with a plus curve and two more average secondary pitches. Birdsong needs to throw more consistent strikes, but he has some of the better upside of any pitching prospect in the system, and could be making starts for the Giants by the end of 2025 — possibly sooner if he takes a step forward this summer. 

Three Down 

Marco Luciano, SS: Luciano once again dealt with injuries in 2023, and he wasn't particularly effective in his 74 minor-league games with a slash of .223/.334/.442 before being promoted to San Francisco. There were some good moments for Luciano upon that promotion, but the overall line of .231/.333/.308 in 39 at-bats over 14 games tells you it was only moments. 

Level of concern: Moderate. Two years ago, you could argue that Luciano was the best shortstop prospect in baseball. There's still a lot to like about the 22-year-old, as he shows plus-plus power in his right-handed swing and the ball jumps off the bat when he makes contact. He's also far too aggressive in many at-bats, and he's lost enough speed to suggest that he's no lock to stick at shortstop. If everything clicks for Luciano he has a chance to still be a star, but there's a wide range of possible outcomes here.

Aeverson Arteaga, INF: Arteaga entered the 2023 season considered one of the top infield prospects in the San Francisco system, but this summer saw him struggle more often than succeed. He played 126 games for High-A Eugene, and he finished the campaign with a slash of .235/299/.410 over 493 at-bats.

Level of concern: Moderate-to-high. Arteaga isn't going to have to be an elite offensive player to reach the highest level thanks to his defense at shortstop, as he's a plus defender up the middle with a strong throwing arm. There's some solid power potential in his bat, but in order to reach it he's going to have to keep the strikeouts to a low roar; something he didn't do well in 2022 or 2023 with 287 strikeouts in those seasons. Arteaga is only 20 (he turns 21 in March) and there's plenty of time to put things together, but there's no denying that 2023 was a step in the wrong direction. 

Will Bednar, RHP: Drafted with the 14th pick out of Mississippi State, Bednar's stock drops not so much due to performance issues, but issues with being able to perform. He's made just 20 appearances since being selected in 2021, and he was pulled out of the Arizona Fall League due to recurring back discomfort. 

Level of concern: Moderate-to-high. When healthy, Bednar shows three above-average to plus offerings, and he'll mix in an average change to keep hitters honest. It's the fact that he's dealt with back injuries for two consecutive seasons while never throwing more than 43 innings in a professional season that gives concern. He's a pitcher to keep an eye on because of his pedigree, but it'd be foolish to deny that there's more risk than reward at this stage in Bednar's career.