Mound Musings: My 2021 “Home” League Pitching Staff

Readers often ask about my own pitching staffs in the various fantasy leagues in which I compete. So, having just completed this year's auction in my primary or "home" league, I thought I'd take this opportunity to discuss the pitching staff with which I will go to war. I will add that I typically focus very heavily on a few arms, so many of these guys pitch on several of my teams.

A little background:

This league has been in existence for a very long time. This will be my 30th season, and most of the league's owners have been members for 20-plus years. It started in my hometown, but owners have gradually dispersed all over North America, and we usually all come back for draft day. However, with travel restrictions, etc., for the first time, we held the draft online. These guys are savvy, experienced and they are pretty familiar with the tendencies of the other owners. It's a challenging group, but that makes it fun!

With 15 teams, it is a mixed league keeper with deep rosters (33 players per team with no minor league or disabled list slots). Standard scoring categories, five hitting and five pitching, with a lineup consisting of 12 hitters and nine pitchers (with a minimum of five qualified starting pitchers and two qualified relief pitchers). One thing that makes roster management more challenging – picking up a free agent requires a "move" usually from a player being sent down or put on the injured list. You can then release that player and pick up someone on the waiver wire (order is determined by reverse order of the current standings). Since you probably won't want to cut a key player who goes on the IL for a short time, you really need versatility and some productivity on your bench.

So, let's look at my pitching staff, and discuss my thoughts on who and why: 

Overview: In all my years of playing fantasy baseball, this pitching staff, particularly the starting pitchers, might have the highest collective upside of any staff I have fielded. That's the good news. I should be giddy, right? Well, yes I am, but with considerable reservations. Unfortunately, of my seven frontline starting pitchers, only two actually took a turn the first weekend of the season. Three opened the year on the injured list, one had his start pushed back as a precaution as he builds arm strength, and one had the team's series postponed due to COVID concerns. I remain hopeful as most of them should join their rotations in the next couple weeks, but delaying much further could see my team falling too far behind to catch up. So, let's take a look at the staff:

• SP1 Shohei Ohtani – Granted, Ohtani is not a SP1. Not yet. But, these rotation assignments are based on expectations, and I firmly believe he is just about to become an elite pitcher. Manager Joe Maddon looked at his roster and decided the Angels need big years from guys like Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon and Ohtani if they want to be playing in October. The gloves have come off. He will be an ace, and hopefully it will be this season – his start against the White Sox made me 101 mph giddy – but, barring another injury, it will happen. If you don't own him, and his owner has any doubts, maybe based on his still somewhat inconsistent command, or lack of endurance, go get him now.
• SP2 Dinelson Lamet – A couple of seasons ago, I began promoting Lamet as a star on the horizon. While I wait for Ohtani to achieve his ceiling, I also need to be patient with this guy, and my staff could struggle for the first month or so until they (and others, see below) get there. Lamet has one of the best sliders in the game. Unfortunately, that pitch is hard on his elbow, and he is building himself back up after missing the end of last year. He has opted to take a nonsurgical route, and hopefully it works. He could lead the league in K/9, and with the Padres lineup behind him, I will add a huge component when he's back in my rotation. I just need to stay reasonably close in the standings until that happens.
• SP3 Mike Soroka – Like Lamet, Soroka is rehabbing and building strength after missing most of last season. They were both anticipated back in late April, but Soroka has experienced some shoulder soreness, so his return will probably be in early May. The good news is, Soroka's injury was to his Achilles, and he should be able to put it in the past once he is ready to go. He is a surgeon on the mound with very good command of a solid arsenal and exceptional mound presence. He pitches more to contact, so an average strikeout rate hurts his fantasy value a bit, but he can make up for it with a low WHIP and ERA to go with a lot of wins for a very good Braves ream. The leg injury shouldn't linger, and his efficiency will hopefully help him log quite a few innings without too much stress.
• SP4 Julio Urias – Urias is one of several on this staff who have occupied the penthouse suite of my elite kids list. He has worked through injuries that delayed his development, but he comes into this season ready and firing. He could legitimately be a No. 1 on many MLB teams, but on the Dodgers (and here), he is an exceptionally high-ceiling four. Depth is going to probably be more important this year than ever before in the majors and in fantasy leagues, so the fact that he's taking a turn right out of the gate is huge. Urias specializes in soft contact, but he also gets his share of punch-outs – pretty impressive considering he's only 24-years-old. Like most of the others, he benefits from playing for a very strong team, and he will enjoy the comradery of the Dodgers arms.
• SP5 Patrick Corbin – Corbin is an excellent example of a starting pitcher who is pretty easy to read in any given start. His game is all about a quality fastball and a devastating slider. If he is spotting the fastball on the upper edges of the zone (not an easy take) and his slider is diving down and into right-handed hitters, typically just off the ground near their back foot, pop a cold one, order a pizza and enjoy the game. If the fastball is easy to lay off, and the slider is arriving knee high or above, you might want to consider munching a handful of antacids, and change the channel to the rerun of Field of Dreams. Last year his velocity was down a tick, and he wasn't locating his pitches like he normally does. I am hoping for a strong season, although I wish the Nats were better defensively. And, if the staff wasn't already thin enough in April, Corbin begins the year on a COVID-19 quarantine list.
• SP6 Jameson Taillon – Here's yet another kids list alumnus. I mean it stands to reason. I first saw Taillon when he was in high school, and I immediately decided he was destined to pitch for me. I have had to be patient. He was selected second overall in the 2010 draft (between Bryce Harper and Manny Machado) out of high school, and he was making modest progress before Tommy John surgery and a hernia entirely wiped out his 2014 and 2015 seasons. He came back strong in 2016 – but then he underwent a second Tommy John surgery, and he missed time due to testicular cancer. He has the skill set to rank much higher than an SP6, but he has to stay on the mound and out of the trainer's room. The Yankees will undoubtedly monitor his workload very closely, but I really hope the "changes in latitudes" angle will kick in.
• SP7 Noah Syndergaard – Under normal circumstances, seeing Thor listed as a SP7 could give you cause to pause. But, remember, these rotation slots are all about anticipated performance for 2021, and I'm doing my best to carefully temper my expectations. Syndergaard is working his way back from Tommy John surgery, and he isn't expected to take the mound in New York until June. It then usually takes about a half season for a pitcher to get back to full strength and to get all the moving parts back in sync. Maybe he gets it all together sooner – some do – but that would just be icing on the cake. This roster spot is about 2022 and beyond. Reports on is rehab progress have been positive. We'll see.
• RP1 Kenley Jansen – For several years, I considered Jansen the best closer in the game, my bullpen anchor, but the last couple seasons, his results have been a bit concerning. His velocity was down on his bread-and-butter cutter. The team called the dip a "dead arm period," and Jansen dismissed the concerns. However, this spring he looked sharper, and when he entered a save situation, the velocity was nearly normal. Maybe his days as an elite closer are coming to an end, or maybe not, but I'm not ready to turn away. I think he's still got gas in the tank.
• RP2 Mark Melancon – It seems like almost every year, many analysts relegate Melancon to a secondary bullpen role, and, as the dust settles, there he is in the ninth inning finishing games. He doesn't have the eye-popping fastball or even a wipeout breaking ball, but what he does have is a closer's mentality, and a lot of experience getting hitters out in the endgame. As usual, other Padres relievers were getting most of the attention in fantasy drafts, so I was more than happy to add a discounted Melancon to my roster(s). He has dealt with nagging injuries in the past, so there is some risk, but the price tag made him worth it.
• RP3 Jordan Romano – Maybe I misfired on this one. Right now, I'm taking a wait and see approach. I had acquired Kirby Yates in an offseason deal to strengthen my bullpen with the hope that I could get Jansen at a discount and land someone like Melancon to round things out. Yates' elbow didn't read into the plan. He's out for the year, and I set my sights on Romano. I got him, but the first couple of save ops have gone to Julian Merryweather. He has very good stuff but he also has durability concerns, so time will tell how this works out. I suppose Emmanuel Clase could serve as my RP3, at least in the interim.
• FLEX – This could be a SP6/7 or RP3/4 – Carlos Rodon, Matt Moore, Emmanuel Clase, Rafael Dolis and MacKenzie Gore  – This is generally my option slot. I fill it based on need and opportunity. I came out of the draft somewhat thin in my starting pitching, with Lamet, Soroka, and Syndergaard already on the injured list. As mentioned above, many of the frontliners are former top-of-the-list guys on the Kid Parade, and Moore is another former top-of-the-watch-list member. I have been counting on Rodon to put the injuries behind him the past couple years, so early this season seemed like a very good trial period. Additionally, I couldn't pass up the chance to get Gore at a very attractive price even though he is unlikely to help much this season. Part of keeper league strategy is keeping the pipeline full for future seasons. I'll probably be shopping for another adequate reserve starter unless these guys really step up, perhaps dangling a reliever as trade bait. Flexibility (and owning trade bait) is also very useful over the course of a full fantasy season.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• I really liked some of what I saw from Arizona's Taylor Widener, but there are some warning flags, too. He displayed a nice lively fastball, but he threw virtually nothing off speed. Hitters will catch up to him if he can't mix in some slow stuff to keep them off balance. I'm keeping an eye on him, looking for a changeup.
• Seattle's James Paxton lasted just 24 pitches before departing with what is being described as a forearm strain. I love this guy when he's healthy, but I'm not sure we will ever be able to confidently claim he is. I'm not risk averse – look at my pitching staff – but sometimes you have to succumb to the harsh reality.
• Miami's Sandy Alcantara has looked very sharp in his first two 2021 outings despite not having a win to show for his efforts. Pretty much everything was crisp, and his command consistency is improving. He has a nice  17:4 K:BB ratio and should be a solid SP option if he can just get a little run support.
• A long memory for good things is sometimes a curse, but I watched the first start of Matt Harvey and saw some of what I liked about him when he was discussed in the same conversations with Syndergaard. He's not there anymore, and, call it wishful thinking, but I'd like to see him return to something like he once was.

Endgame Odyssey:

It's the first week of the season, so some surprises are to be expected. For example, the Jays slipped one in on us. When Kirby Yates went down for the year, Jordan Romano looked like the logical choice. However, Julian Merryweather got the call, so he looks like the primary closer for now. Just be aware they may avoid using him on back-to-back days, so Romano is likely still in the mix. With Hunter Harvey out, the Orioles have been using Cesar Valdez rather than Tanner Scott. I'm not too excited about either of them. Joakim Soria is out with a calf injury, so who closes in Arizona? Even though there was a surprise when Chris Devenski finished a game, I am inclined to look for Kevin Ginkel or Stefan Crichton. And then, there's Kansas City where musical chairs is the game of choice in the pen. First, Greg Holland got pulled in favor of Wade Davis after he mucked things up, then Jesse Hahn pitched the ninth in the next save opportunity. I just have a hunch Holland might not be 100 percent, but this is a good pen to avoid for now. Oakland's Trevor Rosenthal has been diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome, which normally means surgery and a long road back. In his absence, I look for Jake Diekman (better stuff) and Sergio Romo (closing experience) to possibly share the saves.