Mound Musings: Life, the Universe, and Everything

Over the past few years, Life, the Universe and Everything, has become a semi-regular part of Mound Musings. As we try to answer the ultimate question, I'll occasionally dedicate this space to elaborating on questions from you, the readers, as well as take the opportunity to make brief comments about current events. I've been chomping at the bit to discuss the sign spotted in the Washington Nationals bullpen this spring (see photo). So that will lead it off. Remember, if you have a pitching question, fire away, that's what we're here for.

OMG … are they learning: Oh, those trials and tribulations. Fantasy baseball is all about trying to predict performance, and it always seems like its all about velocity. Then you watch Major League … Ball four. Ball eight. Ball twelve … and you realize they can see just fine, but they couldn't find the plate if their lives depended on it. Don't get me wrong, I love triple digits as much as the next guy, but throw strikes first!

Case in point. I think everyone knows of a pitcher named Greg Maddux. He pitched fairly well for more than 20 seasons. Did you know that at his peak (very early in his career) his fastball sat at a screaming 93 mph, and nearing the end of his career his "blazing" fastball rarely broke 86. How did this poor soft-tosser survive?  

Well, he faced 20,421 batters over his career, and 133 of them saw a 3-0 count (not including intentional walks) – 133! That's ridiculous – and almost unbelievable. He primarily threw a 2-seam fastball and a circle change, which led to loads of groundballs, but he also had a 4-seamer, a cutter, a splitter, a curve and a slider, all of which he could place like a postage stamp on an envelope. That's obviously the key. He won 355 games. He logged a 3.16 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP. He wasn't known as a strikeout pitcher, but he managed to whiff 3,371 batters. You know what, interestingly, in today's game scouts might not give Mr. Maddux a second look. 

A keyword to watch for: All of us probably read articles about baseball on a daily basis. We seek information leading us to an improving player or one who's performance is tailing off. A big part of this is finding keywords. I've got one for you, and it's huge. We're looking for "Driveline" or maybe drivelinebaseball.com.

I first became aware of the organization a few years ago, and it shows up more and more often all the time. Just last week, I had a question about significant improvement from Sean Manaea. His command has improved, and his fastball velocity is up a couple ticks (from 91.2 to 93.6). It comes from better mechanics. They work on cleaning up the pitcher's delivery providing for a more consistent and repeatable delivery while the more efficient mechanics allow for a higher velocity without overthrowing.

Do not underestimate these adjustments. I'm guessing nine out of 10 pitchers who seek help at Driveline improve, some of them quite a lot. Clayton Kershaw, Kenley Jansen, Caleb Thielbar, Alex Cobb and Alex Wood are just a handful of pitchers who have benefited from better mechanics. The organization is located in Kent, Washington, but players work both at their facilities and remotely.

Putting a spin on things: I'm not going to dwell on this, as it's not really something we can validate, but I do think it's worth mentioning. Back in the day I played both baseball and softball. I remember a brand-new softball right out of the box being a rocket when you hit it, but that same ball being what we called a "mushball" after a few days in play. No matter how hard you hit it, nothing. It was more difficult to grip, and pitchers who rely on high spin rate can struggle to generate that spin. I think it is also part of the command issues that we see, including more hit batters. Lack of training for young pitchers is the bigger factor, but I see that gradually improving. Did you know baseballs in Japan are actually slightly smaller and stickier?

Wake up, wake up you sleepy head: This is just a shout out to the amazing baseball environment in South Korea. Last week the Dodgers and Padres squared off at Gocheok Sky Dome in Seoul, South Korea. Given the time difference, it was early, real early, but a 6:00 a.m. wakeup call was worth it. After all, it was real baseball, circa 2024.

But it was more. It was better. It was like a New Year's Eve party. Did anyone else tune in and catch the cheerleaders (awesome) and the singing leaders, and the fans? Wow! There was no one mindlessly mumbling into their cell phone – they were clicking pictures! I was rocking and rolling! And, I'm actually understating the excitement. I love the spread of MLB around the world. There will be a series played in London later this year, but they will need to throw quite a fling to outdo Korea. Could fans here embrace the enthusiasm I saw in Seoul? I'd like to think its possible. Do you remember Beatlemania? Today's indifference is a sad thing.

What about all these kids: Many teams would probably prefer to avoid calling up prospects who aren't quite ready to contribute. But, the need for innings is acute, and we are seeing a flock of new arrivals almost every week. It's problematic seeing kids getting beat up routinely, and that can have a negative psychological impact on them. And, what about fantasy implications? Even heavily hyped prospects may or may not see the key role you anticipate, and when they do pitch, an under-prepared prospect can be a fantasy disaster. And, arrivals are accelerating.

Just a few days ago I watched the consensus top kid pitcher, Paul Skenes, pitch well. He's going down to start the year, but he'll be back soon, and I'm okay with that. He's at least reasonably ready. But in looking at some of the top pitching prospects – 20 of them to be exact – 17 are expected to pitch in MLB this year. Several have already had a cup of coffee in the big leagues. Of the three not expected to pitch in the majors in 2024, one is recovering from Tommy John surgery and will miss the season, and the other two were recent high school draftees, so some delay is to be expected.

So how does this swarm of kids play out in fantasy? My advice today would probably be to tread very cautiously with as yet unproven prospects. We need to know which guys are ready to pitch and which are still just throwers. I'll walk out on a limb and say half of these top prospects are coming up too soon, and will do more harm than good.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• There were very lofty expectations for the Dodgers' Yoshinobu Yamamoto heading into his first start, but things didn't go as planned. A period of adjustment should have been anticipated. If his owner gets jittery over his next couple starts, I'll make an offer. I'm pretty sure he will get everything together.
• As I mentioned, top-shelf arms are already dropping like flies, including arguably the best starter in MLB, the Yankees' Gerrit Cole. With Cole's absence, it looks like Luis Gil will get an extended look in the rotation, and as long as he keeps throwing strikes, he could carve himself out spot long term. Monitor him closely.
• The Reds' Frankie Montas ended the spring with an ugly 5.94 ERA, but most of that was the result of being shaky in his first couple outings. He appears to have settled in and is likely to provide some solid innings in the regular season. I have always liked his stuff and I'm optimistic he can do well if he can just stay healthy.  
• I was a little bit surprised when Detroit assigned Matt Manning to Triple-A. I watched a couple starts, and he both added a new pitch, and changed how he used his fastball, working up in the zone more often. It was a work in progress, so maybe we shouldn't be too surprised, but I'm looking forward to the future.
• I made a deal about a week ago to acquire Dylan Cease, betting he would be traded. I got him for this year and next with a very favorable contract, and as a huge bonus, he was dealt to San Diego. Gazing into my crystal ball, I expect him to be in the hunt for a Cy Young with a bunch of strikeouts. Go get him.
• He was a star in the making a few years ago before injuries set in, but he has looked healthy (and in sync) this spring. I'll take a flier on Michael Soroka, but I really wish he was pitching for a better team. The stripped-down Sox don't look like they'll win many games this year, but maybe you'll get some quality innings.

Endgame Odyssey:

I think I perhaps got overzealous in my pursuit of the Padres' Yuki Matsui in anticipation of him closing games. Robert Suarez got the first save chance, while Matsui pitched earlier, but I still think his day will come. In an interesting twist, the White Sox are planning to use Michael Kopech in the bullpen. They have no logical choice to close games, meaning I'll make Kopech odds on to pitch the ninth. Is it possible a long time "closer in waiting" might get a look? Griffin Jax or maybe Brock Stewart are probably the favorites to fill in, while Jhoan Duran is on the shelf, but, just daydreaming, I'd love to see Josh Staumont get a shot. Toronto looked set with its bullpen heading into the season, but injuries to closer Jordan Romano and top set up guy Erik Swanson have created some need for shuffling. My guess is Yimi Garcia will see the most save chances until they get healthy. Arizona's Paul Sewald popped up with a strained oblique, meaning a trip to the injured list. Kevin Ginkel probably sees the save chances.