Mound Musings: Gazing Into the Crystal Ball

This year, there have been even more (than usual) young, and veteran arms posting surprising numbers, both good and bad. Some have enjoyed incredible success, and that always leads to decisions on whether they should be pursued on draft day. Others, who were being counted upon by their fantasy owners to anchor their staffs, have been just that – literally, an anchor. For the new guys who have been turning heads, even with those good beginnings, most won't post long-term value as the hitters build a book on them, and uncover their flaws. However, some will likely take advantage of the opportunity, and so should you. The trick is deciding which to pursue.

That said, I would like to feature a few pitchers who have impressed me, some with solid numbers, or maybe just with future potential at this point in the season. Maybe they have just arrived on the MLB scene, or perhaps something has changed, making them much more valuable than anyone really anticipated. Then, I'll flip the coin and throw out some pitchers who have posted impressive numbers, but might be risky propositions going forward. Watch the warning signs on these guys.

You might consider pursuing these arms:

Dylan Cease (White Sox) – Having a good season might not be a surprise in his case, but Cease has gone beyond just "good." He always had exceptional stuff with great movement, but his command like that of many young pitchers was sometimes spotty. The ability to miss bats is a huge plus since the White Sox aren't always too good at catching batted balls. So, he makes this side of the list, which might seem presumptuous given the year he has had, but I don't believe we have seen his best yet. And, you may note, the Sox are perennially expected to be a powerhouse. It hasn't happened yet, but if it does, Cease's stock could skyrocket.

Tony Gonsolin (Dodgers) – He just recently went on the IL with some forearm tightness, but the injury is considered to be minor. This could be more of a "take a breather" move as the Dodgers charge toward the playoffs. Gonsolin was generally a short outing starter prior to this season, but his key pitches – a slider and splitter – have developed so much that he comfortably pitches deeper into games. His supporting cast is a big part of his 16-1 record, but he's the real deal. Great mound presence and the ability to consistently throw his breaking pitches for strikes provide a firm foundation for the future. The biggest concern is he needs to stay healthy. Besides the recent forearm problems, he has experienced shoulder woes in the past.

Kyle Wright (Braves) – Wright has been a well thought of pitcher in the Braves system for several years, but previous trials with the big club have been disappointing. He had very good stuff, but he didn't really trust it. I caught a start earlier in the season, and things were clearly different. He was coming right after hitters and it was working. I immediately added him to my rosters where possible, hoping the nibbling was a thing of the past. So far, so good here, too. He still occasionally strays from the throw strikes game plan, which can hike his walk rate and pitch counts, but he has pretty consistently reverted back to the aggressive pitcher, which bodes well for next year and beyond.

Spencer Strider (Braves) – Let's go back-to-back Braves. Occasionally a young pitcher fools me, which looks like the case with Strider. When I first saw him, he was generally pitching shorter outings, rarely facing hitters more than once in a game. He relied heavily on an electric fastball, and when the team moved him to the rotation, I was concerned he could suffer from over exposure. It hasn't happened. In fact, he has thrived on the added workload, ringing up 158 strikeouts in just 106 innings. Strider still needs to throw more strikes to keep his pitch count down, but he's learning on the job, and his stuff is good enough to continue missing bats. I think he is slightly better command from moving up to the top tiers of starting pitchers. That's a major accomplishment so early in his career.

I'm probably staying away from these pitchers: 

Nestor Cortes (Yankees) – Don't get me wrong, Cortes has posted an impressive season. He's 9-4 with a 2.68 ERA and an exceptional 0.96 WHIP. The Yankees needed someone to step up, and he did just that. My concerns are about the future. He has good, but not great stuff, and he relies quite a bit on a rather deceptive motion. That often leads to being more hittable as batters become more familiar, and I think that is beginning to happen. Sometimes pitchers fool me and they adjust enough to keep hitters honest, but more often than not, the peripherals suffer somewhat. I believe he will remain a solid starting pitcher, but you might be expecting too much looking for an expanded 2022 next year, and that could drive his draft price a bit too high.

Cole Irvin (Athletics) – Call me a pessimist. Irvin has posted pretty respectable peripherals (3.35 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP) this year despite a lackluster record of 7-11 while pitching for a weak Oakland team, but I don't see it lasting. He has, IMHO, rather mediocre command of mediocre stuff, he doesn't miss enough bats, and he gives up a lot of hard-hit balls. Other than that, he's an ace. His home games take place in a pitcher-friendly park, but that sketchy command – not so much missing the zone but missing his spots in the zone – is likely to catch up to him. He's not for me.

Chris Bassitt (Mets) – Bassitt is an interesting study. His fastball isn't overpowering (93.0 mph), but he does generate relatively good movement with it. His secondary pitches are average or perhaps even a bit better. That may be enough to get by in a starting role, but I keep thinking teams will start recognizing the fastball and sit on it until they get something in the hitting zone. He does throw strikes, which helps a lot, but his pedestrian stuff, and general inability to miss that many bats overall bring up red flags for me. There have been a few pretty successful pitchers in the past with a similar profile, and I wasn't a big fan of them either. Yes, it's hard to doubt his success, but I do.

Michael Wacha (Red Sox) – He's been around for years and has demonstrated the ability to get hitters out from time to time, but this year's 9-1 record with a 2.53 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP are outliers in my book. His ERA hasn't been below 4.00 since 2018. He's been a bit lucky, but he has generated a good amount of soft contact, and he generally keeps the ball in the yard, but he always looks more hittable to me (and he has been over many of his seasons). Wacha has dealt with quite an assortment of injuries in the past, and maybe that contributed to the off years, but I think I'll continue to pass on him.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• A lot of leagues use quality starts as a scoring category. So, how valuable does that make Houston's Framber Valdez, who is quite frankly currently working on a streak that is hard to believe? You have to go back to April 19 to find a start where he wasn't quality. That's 22 in a row and counting. Amazing.
• Speaking of streaks, the Nationals went 43 games without their starting pitcher logging a win. Ironically, Patrick Corbin, who leads MLB in losses (17), broke the streak when the Nats defeated Cincinnati earlier in the week. Even decent pitchers pitching for bad teams can struggle to win games consistently.
• I almost included the Rays' Drew Rasmussen on the possible pitchers to pursue list above. It seems like every time I watch he is improving, and what more can you really ask for. He is adapting well to pitching as a more conventional starter, and his stuff works for an organization that is known for its young arms.
• The Mets Jacob deGrom certainly looked healthy in his most recent start against the Dodgers, allowing just three hits and one run while striking out nine over seven innings. The key takeaway is seven innings with more than 90 pitches. He appears to be back in midseason form, and ready for the layoffs.
• Matt Manning of Detroit is the new poster child for inconsistency. Since coming off the IL August 2, he has logged three starts with just one earned run over 20 innings. Unfortunately, in the other three August outings, he's allowed 14 runs in a mere 12.1 innings. I'm still seeing flashes from the former top prospect.

Endgame Odyssey:

The Phillies have been on a roll, putting pressure on the Mets in the NL East, but to maintain this surge they really need Seranthony Dominguez back on the mound and closing games. I'm not sure I can recall a reliever the quality of the Padres Josh Hader experiencing the struggles he is going through. To me it looks simply mechanical – he just isn't locating. Nick Martinez is doing a solid job filling in, but I am confident Hader will be back. He did close a game against the Giants with no real damage, I watched Clay Holmes in his first game back from the IL, and he looked sharp. Expect him back in the closing role soon. Jimmy Herget appears to have taken over the gig as the Angels closer. So far, so good, but mark me skeptical. In Houston, Ryan Pressly is out with neck spasms, which opens the door for Rafael Montero. I've always thought of him as a potential closer, so he should be an adequate fill-in.