MLB: Using Barrel Rates To Identify Buy Lows & Fades

The talk of the baseball world in April was offense being down, and the data aligned, especially the results on barrels. It's early, but the home runs and runs per plate appearance in May have trended upward.

However, the offense across the league remains down compared to previous seasons. Meanwhile, the barrel rate stayed steady. In pulling the results via barrels, the average distance dropped in April, with the wOBA and SLG down. However, the expected stats look similar to April 2018.

Checking box scores and watching games in May, offense seems to be increasing, and the numbers back that up with the steady league-average barrel rate. Maybe it's regression, the weather warming up in some parts or variance through the midway point of May. Studying the barrel data led to identifying potential buy lows, as well as some fade candidates. 

Potential Barrel Rate Buy Lows

Christian Walker (1B - ARI)

Before the season, I wrote up Walker as a potential hitter value after a down 2021 season. In 2022, Walker has six home runs with 15 runs and 14 RBI each, plus a .203 batting average. The walk rate has improved to 10.9%, with a dip in strikeout rate at 20.2% versus the career 9.6% walk rate and 24.8% strikeout rate. 

Walker's plate discipline metrics align with the improved walk and strikeout rates, as evidenced by the 25 O-Swing%, 89.7 Z-Contact% and 77.2 Contact%. It's early, but those are better than his career norms of a 30.9 O-Swing%, 82.3 Z-Contact% and 73.7 Contact%. 

Meanwhile, Walker's FB% jumped to 50% versus a career rate of 39%. The groundball rate remained near the career averages at 38.6% in 2022, but Walker's LD% dropped to 11.4% compared to a career rate of 20.3%. Walker's Pull% hasn't changed much, with a 44.3 Pull% up three percentage points from his career average. 

Walker lands as a barrel rate buy-low for me because the production hasn't popped off the page. However, Walker's 15.9 Barrel% (93rd percentile) and 10.9% Barrel/PA places him in the near-elite group. Also, the 95.8 mph EV on FB/LD (No. 30) aligns with the barrel rates. Although the results via barrels remain down compared to past seasons, buy low on Walker in 15-team leagues given the underlying contact quality metrics. 

Eugenio Suarez (3B/SS - SEA)

In January, Suarez's struggles in 2021 piqued my interest, given the productive seasons from 2017 to 2019. Like Walker, Suarez has six home runs, to go along with 17 runs, and 18 RBI, but the .203 batting average might worry folks. 

After being a consistent hitter in sd(LA) in 2019 and prior, those numbers fell off in 2020 and 2021, likely due to him recovering from the shoulder injury. According to Alex Chamberlain, Suarez boasted an uber-consistent sd(LA) since 2015, which led to me wondering if the shoulder impacted the swing.

Thankfully, his sd(LA) in 2022 looks "tighter" at 24.2 degrees per Alex Chamberlain's Pitch Leaderboard. With the line drive rate dropping and flyball rate increasing, Suarez's BABIP tanked from .312 in 2019 to .214 in 2020 and .224 in 2021. The BABIP is back up to .279, though the batting average hasn't followed yet. 

Similar to Walker, Suarez hasn't hit a ton of the line drives early, with a 14.9 LD%, yet GB% and FB% marks around 42%. Suarez's Pull% has decreased to a career-low (37.8%), down from a career pull rate of 44.8%. We've seen a more balanced, all-fields approach in 2022. 

Is this tied to Suarez leaving Great American Ball Park and no longer trying to pull everything over the right-field porch? The chase rate of 26.7% remains similar to the career rate of 26.1%. However, Suarez's 79.1 Z-Contact% and 68.2 Contact% look concerning versus a career Z-Contact of 85.4% and Contact of 75.2%. Thankfully, the barrel rate has jumped near the 2019 and 2020 seasons with a 14.9 Barrel% (91st percentile), while the 7.9% Barrel/PA looks identical to 2019-2021.

Assuming the contact rates regress closer to the career norms with the above-average contact quality, it should translate into more production. Interestingly, Suarez's 33.8% hard-hit rate doesn't align with past years in barrel rate. However, the .481 xwOBAcon looks similar to the .455 xwOBAcon in 2018 and .462 in 2019. The production hasn't followed, and Suarez lands as one of my barrel rate buy-low hitters. 

Potential Barrel Rate Fades

Trent Grisham (OF - SD)

Now onto my barrel rate fades. After peak barrel rate metrics in 2020 for Grisham with an 11.1 Barrel% and 6.7% Barrel/PA, those numbers have slowly faded in 2021 and 2022. Unfortunately, Grisham hasn't performed well in 2022, with one home run and a .152 batting average.

Unsurprisingly, the .219 BABIP hasn't helped versus a career BABIP of .287. The Padres batted Grisham leadoff and down in the lineup, but that appears to be platoon-related since he moves up against right-handed pitchers. Interestingly, Grisham has a near-identical career OPS of .740 versus lefties and .728 versus righties.

Like the previous two hitters mentioned, Grisham's LD% has dipped to 13.7%, with a bump in GB% (49.3%) and FB% (37%). The Pull% bounced from 44.4% in 2019 to 38.8% in 2020 and 42.3% in 2021. 

Grisham typically showed quality plate discipline with a 21.9 O-Swing%, around 10 percentage points lower than the league averages. The Z-Contact% and Contact% sit near the league rates, but the contact quality has dipped, and that's why he lands as a fade for me.

In 2022, his barrel rate is down to a 3.9% (15th percentile) and 2.3% Barrel/PA, with only two barrels on the season. Grisham hardly strikes the ball hard, as evidenced by the 30.3% hard-hit rate. 

Fantasy managers with Grisham on their rosters have probably thought about cutting him or have already done so, especially in 12-team leagues. Grisham held an NFBC ADP inside the top 150 picks.

Hold in dynasty leagues for Grisham's value to increase, though it's gradually turning into a sunk cost unless we observe any batted-ball improvements. It's hard to find any reasons for optimism, but maybe he's worth a blind faith buy-low attempt. Not for me.

Randy Arozarena (OF - TB)

After hitting .195 with a .508 OPS in April, Arozarena has heated up in May with a .273 batting average and .758 OPS. Arozarena's Barrel% went from 1.9% in April to 5.1% through May 14. 

One of his issues is the high groundball rate at 58.7%, almost 10 percentage points higher than 2021. In 2022, Arozarena has traded flyballs for groundballs. That's too many groundballs, but a hitter could survive with a GB% around 45-50% if the contact quality remains high. In 2021, Arozarena boasted 94.5 mph (No. 44) EV on FB/LD.

Arozarena has used a more aggressive approach with a 35.3 O-Swing% and 49 Swing% in 2022 versus a career O-Swing% of 29.5% and Swing% of 44.6%. Thankfully, the contact rates have increased too, with an 82.6 Z-Contact% and 73.2 Contact%, though those are slightly below the league averages. 

It's positive to see the 114.1 mph maximum exit velocity in the 97th percentile, which came on a line-drive double off Josh Winder. Arozarena's dip in barrel rate makes sense since the groundball rate has increased, though the EV on FB/LD might mean the barrel rates will improve soon. 

Monitor the GB% because that impacts the barrel rate. Hopefully, the plate discipline metrics in the O-Swing% and Swing% regress since those negatively affect the 5.1% walk rate and .271 OBP. Even if Arozarena hits 15 home runs with 20 stolen bases, we'll happily take that production.